迎接中国的挑战

The U.S., Japan and India on Monday held their first trilateral security meeting to discuss security issues in East Asia, and the Washington event is set to be the start of a trend. Beijing is predictably unhappy about this convergence of the world's superpower, the second-largest economy in Asia, and the other large developing country. But China must prepare itself for more such meetings, because China's own actions are bringing them about.

美国、日本和印度12月19日举行它们之间的第一场三边安全会议，讨论东亚安全问题。这场在华盛顿举行的会谈很有可能成为一种趋势的开端。看到世界超级大国、亚洲第二大经济体和另外一个大型发展中国家一起碰头，北京的不高兴是可以预料的。但中国必须为更多这类会议的召开做好准备，因为是中国自己的行为促成了这些会议。

Technically, China's rise did not feature at the meeting. Security of sea lanes of communication, coordination of humanitarian assistance and global terrorism were the focus. But China was the unspoken subtext. After all, one of the biggest threats to free navigation in Asia is China's growing assertiveness in pursuing unreasonable territorial claims in the South China Sea and in various island disputes with Japan. A pressing humanitarian problem is North Korea, a totalitarian state sustained by Beijing's patronage. India faces a serious terrorism threat from Pakistan, another friend of China.

严格地讲，中国的崛起并不是会谈的内容。海上航道的安全，人道援助的协调和全球恐怖主义才是焦点。但中国是没有说出来的潜台词。毕竟亚洲航行自由面临的最大威胁之一，就是中国在南中国海（中国称南海）的领土主张以及在跟日本的多起岛屿争端方面态度日益强硬。朝鲜是一个迫在眉睫的人道主义问题，其独裁政府是在北京的支持下维持着的。印度面临着来自巴基斯坦的严重恐怖主义威胁，而巴基斯坦也是中国的朋友。

The question facing the three powers that met in Washington is how to manage these concerns. Traditionally the American presence in the region on its own has been a strong guarantor of stability. But economic constraints back home increasingly will force the U.S. to seek a new arrangement. This is likely to include reliance on regional allies to carry more of the security burden, as is the case with America's North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies in Europe.

这三个大国面临的问题就在于怎样处理这些让它们担忧的情况。过去，美国在亚洲地区的存在本身就是稳定的强力保证。但国内的经济制约将越来越多地迫使美国寻找一种新的安排，可能包括依靠地区内的盟友肩负更多的安全担子，就像让美国在欧洲的北约(NATO)盟友肩负更多担子一样。

In line with this strategy, Washington has encouraged a greater role for India in East and Southeast Asia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during her visit to India earlier this year, asked India 'not just to look east, but to engage east and act east as well.' India has responded with a renewed focus on its Look East Policy, which has evolved from economic and trade linkages to a gradual strengthening of security ties.

根据这一策略，华盛顿曾鼓励印度在东亚和东南亚扮演更大角色。国务卿克林顿(Hillary Clinton)今年早些时候访问印度时，要求印度不要只是朝着东边看，还要跟东边打交道，在东边行动。印度的回应是重新关注于它的“东向政策”(Look East Policy)，这一政策已经从经济贸易联系演变为安全关系的逐渐加强。

India's ties with Japan, in particular, have been gaining momentum thanks to growing enthusiasm in both New Delhi and Tokyo. India's booming economy makes it an attractive economic partner for Japan as the latter tries to overcome long years of stagnation. Japan also is reassessing its traditionally passive security stance and looking for opportunities to play a greater role while staying within the bounds of its non-aggression commitments. Of all Japan's neighbors, India seems most willing to acknowledge Japan's central role in guaranteeing Asian security.

尤其值得一提的是，印度与日本的关系已经在发力。这得益于新德里和东京两方面越来越大的热情。印度经济繁荣，使它成为日本在努力克服多年经济停滞的过程中，一个有吸引力的经济合作伙伴。日本也在重估过去消极的安全立场，寻找机会在不违背不侵犯承诺的情况下扮演更大角色。在日本所有邻国当中，印度似乎最愿意承认日本对于保障亚洲安全的中心角色。

Moreover, a new generation of political leaders in India and Japan view each other with fresh eyes, allowing for a break from past suspicion. China has inadvertently hastened this process along. Both India and Japan are well aware of China's not so subtle attempts at preventing their rise. It is most clearly reflected in China's opposition to the expansion of the United Nations Security Council to include India and Japan as permanent members.

另外，印度和日本新一代政治领导人用新的眼光打量对方，使得双方能够告别过去的相互怀疑。中国在无意之中加快了这一进程。印度和日本都非常清楚，中国为阻止它们崛起都做了哪些不那么隐蔽的尝试。中国这种意图最明显的体现，是它反对印度和日本在联合国安理会的扩大过程中成为常任理事国。
This has set the stage for this week's meeting. It was an opportunity for Japan and India to further cement their bilateral ties while also discussing ways to coordinate security efforts with the U.S. While no major initiatives resulted (none were expected), there was some progress on joint naval exercises.

这一切为上周的会议布置了舞台。对于日本和印度来说，会议是进一步加强双边关系，同时讨论怎样同美国协调安全行动的一个机会。会谈没有产生重要的行动计划（本来也不在预料之中），但在联合海军演习方面取得了一定的进展。

Nor is this the only trilateral meeting on the horizon. There are growing calls for another initiative involving the U.S., Australia and India. There is a distinct convergence of interests among these three countries across of a range of issues including the security of global commons, maritime security and counterterrorism. Trilateral coordination would be the next logical step.

放眼将来，这也不会是唯一的一场三边会谈。越来越多的人在呼吁美国、澳大利亚和印度举行三边会谈。这三个国家在一系列议题上有着独特的共同利益，这些议题包括全球公域安全、海上安全和反恐怖主义。三边协调将是理所当然的下一步。

The parties are closer than at any recent time to such an arrangement. Australia's Labor government last month reversed a decades-old ban on uranium sales to India. Australia and India are ramping up their defense ties with a joint approach in tackling piracy, increasing the number of port visits by their naval ships, and a more structured defense dialogue. This is a significant step in overcoming the longstanding neglect, on both sides, of Australia-India relations.

各方比近期任何时候都更加接近于实现这样一种安排。澳大利亚工党政府上个月解除了10年来对印度出口铀的禁令。通过联合反海盗、增加军舰到港访问数量，以及展开更有条理的防务对话，澳大利亚和印度正在加强它们之间的防务关系。这对于双方克服长期以来对澳印关系的忽视，都是重要的一步。

Meanwhile, Canberra is ramping up its own alliance-building. It has reinvigorated its longstanding alliance with the U.S. by agreeing last month to station 2,500 marines in a U.S. base in northern Australia, and has reached out to Japan for enhanced defense cooperation. It is therefore not surprising that Australia is interested in a U.S.-India-Australia trilateral initiative as it seeks out new partners in the region.

与此同时，堪培拉方面正在强化它自己的结盟行动。上个月，它同意美国在澳大利亚北部一处基地驻扎2,500名海军陆战队士兵，重振它与美国之间长期以来的同盟关系。另外，澳大利亚还向日本示好，希望加强防务合作。难怪澳大利亚在地区内寻找新合作伙伴的时候，产生了发起美-印-澳三边行动的兴趣。

All of this is a worry for China. Beijing has decried the 'Cold War mentality' it claims is evinced by such moves. With respect to a U.S.-Australia-India grouping, Canberra and New Delhi have been quick to publicly downplay the prospect for now, for fear of needlessly antagonizing Beijing. China remains a critical economic partner for all countries in the region. Clearly any trilateral meeting could not feature China as a chief agenda item. The more subtle path followed by this week's U.S.-Japan-India conference is more likely.

这一切都让中国担忧。北京方面曾说这些动作体现的是一种“冷战思维”。在美-澳-印的结盟问题上，堪培拉和新德里方面目前在公开场合都是急于淡化其可能性，因为它们担心这样会没有必要地激怒北京。中国仍然是地区内所有国家至关重要的经济伙伴。显然，如果有三边会谈召开的话，都不能把中国列为最重要议题之一，而更有可能采用本周美-日-印会议那种更加低调的方式。

But there's no escaping China's own role in bringing about this security realignment. Beijing's expansive maritime sovereignty claims; its aggressive behavior pursuing them; its support for states such as North Korea and Pakistan; and its nontransparent military build-up all raise questions about its willingness to act as a responsible stakeholder in the region. Beijing will have to come to terms with more meetings such as this week's.

但不可否认的是，中国在这种安全关系的重组过程中也发挥了它自己的作用。北京范围广泛的海洋主权主张、为了这些主张而采取的强硬行动、对朝鲜和巴基斯坦等国家的支持，以及不透明的军力建设，都使人对它是否愿意充当地区内负责任的利益相关者产生疑问。北京将需要慢慢接受更多本周这样的会议召开。