适者生存: 电视行业面临灭顶之灾

Could it really turn out that a company with a seemingly loopy business model -- capturing over-the-air TV signals and streaming them to subscribers over the Internet -- will be the thing that finally brings down the American broadcasting industry? Quite possibly.

捕获无线电视信号，然后通过因特网传送给用户——这种看起来异想天开的商业模式，会不会成为最终颠覆美国电视业的罪魁祸首？太有可能了。

Chase Carey, News Corp.'s (NWSA) chief operating officer, said Monday that if the company in question, Aereo, is allowed to continue, his company's Fox Broadcasting, and all its affiliate stations, will stop broadcasting over the air and go all-cable. "If CBS, NBC, and ABC follow," says Bloomberg News, it would "mark an end to television as it's been known since The Honeymooners aired in the 1950s." So far, those networks haven't weighed in, but the Spanish-language TV giant Univision has: It made a similar threat after Carey made his remarks during to the National Association of Broadcasters convention in Las Vegas.

本周一，新闻集团（News Corp.）首席运营官切斯•凯里表示，如果备受质疑的Aereo公司获准继续运营，那么新闻集团旗下的福克斯广播（Fox Broadcasting）以及所有附属电视台都将停用无线信号，改用有线传输。彭博新闻社（Bloomberg News）报道：“如果哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）、全国广播公司（NBC）和美国广播公司（ABC）效仿，自20世纪50年代随着《蜜月新人》（The Honeymooners ）的播出而兴起的电视产业将就此走到尽头。”到目前为止，这些广播公司尚未表态，不过西班牙语电视巨头Univision却掺合了进来。继凯里在全国广播事业工作者协会（National Association of Broadcasters）于拉斯维加斯举办的会议上发出威胁之后，Univision也发表了类似的言论。

Those other networks, though, along with PBS and Fox, are fighting hard to put Aereo out of business. But so far, they're losing their legal argument. A federal appeals court last week ruled that Aereo can keep operating while their lawsuit against the company proceeds. In so doing, the judges noted that the networks are unlikely to win at trial. Barring a further appeal to the Supreme Court or passage of new laws, that would mean that broadcast signals are there for the taking by Internet streaming companies like Aereo, which is backed by Barry Diller's IAC/Interactive (IACI).

除了公共广播公司（PBS）和福克斯广播以外，其它广播公司也正在拼命置Aereo于死地。然而他们正在失去法律依据。上周，联邦上诉法院判决表示，诉讼进行期间，Aereo可以继续运营。如此一来，法官等于宣布了广播电视商们不大可能打赢这场官司。无法向最高法院上诉，也不能借助新法律，这意味着由巴里•迪勒的互动公司（IAC，InterActiveCorp.）支持的Aereo等网络流媒体公司可以自由获取空中电视信号。

The broadcasters say the model amounts to copyright infringement. Carey on Monday said that his company "won't just sit idle and allow our content to be actively stolen." Aereo's business is based on a 2008 court ruling that applied in that case to Cablevision's "cloud based" DVR service, which essentially functions as a home video recorder with a really long cord, attached at the other end to a machine in a Cablevision (CVC) facility that stores video files for the personal use of subscribers. The length of the cord, the court essentially ruled, shouldn't matter.

广播电视公司称这种模式涉嫌侵犯版权。凯里在周一表示，新闻集团“绝不会坐以待毙，对内容被窃一事置之不理。”Aereo的业务的合理性是依据法院在2008年针对Cablevision云技术数字录像机服务的一项判决。这款产品本质上是一个家庭录像机，通过一根极长的数据线连接到Cablevision服务器端存储的视频文件，从而收看节目。最终法院判决，数据线的长度不是问题。

Aereo says it's basically doing the same thing, but with broadcast signals, which, after all, are free for the taking by any viewer who wants them. Aereo makes a TV signal available to viewers, via the Internet, for a subscription fee. The legal basis for the business depends on Aereo creating a separate video file for each subscriber -- something that's not technically necessary but is done only to comply with copyright laws.

Aereo称，他们在本质上也是这么做的，只不过把视频文件换成了电视信号。毕竟，对于任何想收看电视节目的人来说，空中电视信号都是免费的，而Aereo让用户在因特网上接收到电视信号，从中收取一定费用。它的合法性在于，Aereo为每位用户创建了独立的视频文件——这么做在技术上并不必要，仅仅是为了不违反版权法。

Aereo draws more viewers to the programming, and hence to the ads. But it devalues the cable subscriptions that people buy largely in order to access local and live programming without having to fuss with an antenna. "It is clear that the broadcast business needs a dual revenue stream from both ad and subscription to be viable," Carey told the crowd at the NAB convention. And he made it clear which revenue stream is more important: "We simply cannot provide the type of quality sports, news, and entertainment content that we do from an ad-supported-only business model. We have no choice but to develop business solutions that ensure we continue to remain in the driver's seat of our own destiny."

Aereo吸引了越来越多的观众，广告合同也随之纷至沓来。过去，人们想要收看当地节目和直播节目，又想省去安装天线的麻烦，因此使用有线电视服务。有了Aereo，有线电视服务就贬值了。凯里在全国广播事业工作者协会的会议上对大家说：“很明显，电视行业需要广告费和有线电视费的双重收入来源才能够养活自己。”至于哪项收入来源更加重要，他说：“我们如果想要提供优质的体育、新闻和娱乐内容，仅仅依靠广告是不行的。现在我们别无选择，只能寻找其他的解决方案，才能继续掌控自己的命运。”

Such a move, though, especially if copied by other networks, "could cripple the network-local station broadcast model," notes AdWeek's Katy Bachman.

然而这样的行为，尤其是如果其他电视网络商群起效仿的话，“将损害从电视网到本地广播电视台的商业模式，”《广告周刊》（AdWeek）的凯蒂•巴克曼说。

There is some irony in the fact that Aereo's threat to TV has broadcasters considering retreating behind cable's walls, which themselves are under threat from the Internet. While "cord cutting" isn't so far a huge problem for cable companies, it is a problem. Only about 5% of viewers gave up on pay-TV last year, according to Nielsen, but that number is slowly growing as Internet-viewing options proliferate. So far the threat is mainly from the likes of Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN), which offer a range of movies and TV shows for a fraction of the cost of a cable subscription, which can run higher than $100 a month。

鉴于Aereo步步紧逼，广播公司正在考虑退守有线网络。但不乏讽刺意味的是，有线电视本身也在面临着互联网的威胁。对于有线电视公司来说，“放弃有线”这个问题还谈不上生死攸关，却也不容忽视。尼尔森公司（Nielsen）的数据显示，去年只有约5%的观众放弃了付费的有线电视，但是随着网上观看的选择激增，这个比例正在逐渐扩大。目前主要的威胁来自网飞（Netflix）和亚马逊（Amazon）这类公司，他们提供各种电影和电视节目，收费却大大低于有线电视。要知道，有线电视的月费甚至可能超过100美元。

Live sports and local news are keeping a lot of viewers within the cable fold, but that's just the kind of programming that Aereo offers. Meanwhile, HBO -- which, like Fortune, is currently owned by Time Warner (TWX) -- has hinted that it might make its HBO Go streaming service to all who want to subscribe, even if they don't have a cable subscription, which is now required. For the moment, it seems like HBO believes it can make more money from the fees it collects from cable subscribers than it could make battling it out on the Internet, where prices are extremely low. But the fact that HBO is even thinking about such a move represents another crack in cable's walled fortress.

有线电视台的实况体育赛事和本地新闻节目留住了大量观众，不过Aereo提供的正是这类节目。与此同时，与《财富》同属于时代华纳集团（Time Warner）的HBO电视网暗示，可能向所有有兴趣的人提供HBO Go付费流媒体服务，即便他们并非有线电视用户（该流媒体服务目前只对有线用户开放）。HBO似乎认为，网络市场收费低且竞争激烈，挣点钱很不容易，在有线电视上获得的收入比网络上多得多。但即使这样，HBO都已经在考虑拉拢网络用户，可谓在有线电视阵营自挖墙角。

A lot of people subscribe to cable mainly to have access to programming from networks like HBO, Showtime, and AMC. If such fare makes its way to the Internet separately from cable, the rationale for having a cable subscription will be that much harder to defend, especially if Aereo is allowed to remain in business.

许多有线电视的付费用户是为了收看HBO、Showtime和AMC等电视台的节目。如果这些节目最终从有线电视独立出来，在互联网上也能看到，就没有理由继续为有线电视付费了——尤其是如果Aereo获准继续经营的话。