中国经济政策转变将让谁受益

The global turbulence triggered by China’s stock market crash should not obscure a greater truth: policy shifts in Beijing are positive for developed economies. Investors should look to buy US equities on the dip.

中国股市暴跌引发了全球动荡，但这不应掩盖一个更重大的事实：中国的政策转变对发达经济体有好处。投资者应考虑逢低买入美国股票。

The sharp structural slowdown in China, long predicted but wilfully ignored until now, is a catastrophe for exporters of natural resources and deflationary for most emerging markets, with the exception of Mexico and India. China and most other emerging economies are likely to see continued demand deflation in the next 12-18 months and further nominal currency depreciation. We believe the renminbi could fall another 5-10 per cent.

中国经济出现大幅结构性放缓的可能性早在意料之中，但此前一直被有意忽视。这种放缓对自然资源出口国而言是一场大灾难，并给多数新兴市场（墨西哥和印度除外）带来通缩效应。中国及其他多数新兴经济体在未来12至18个月可能会看到持续的由需求方面引发的通缩，同时名义汇率将进一步贬值。我们认为，人民币可能会再贬值5%至10%。

But this is ultimately good news for developed markets. Wasteful investment in China, now being wound down, has been depressing global returns for a decade. Tumbling commodity prices, by transferring income from producers to consumers, act as a tax cut for rich-country households. This is what is needed in a world lacking genuine consumer demand. These divergent trends fuse together in our “deflationary boom” outlook for the world. Our analysis suggests both the deflation and boom still have further to run, with investors likely to keep lurching between the positive and negative aspects of this pattern of growth.

但对于发达市场而言，这归根结底是个好消息。10年来，中国的浪费性投资——现在这类投资逐步减少——一直在拉低全球回报率。大宗商品价格暴跌将收入从生产者向消费者转移，对于富国的家庭而言，这起到了减税的效果。这正是当前这个缺乏真正的消费者需求的世界所需要的。这些不同的趋势融合在一起，构成了我们所说的全球“通缩繁荣”(deflationary boom)前景。我们的分析显示，通缩和繁荣都尚无结束迹象，投资者可能会在这种增长模式的有利方面和不利方面之间摇摆不定。

The global economy thus remains in a precarious position. Much will depend, of course, on the timing and the path of the Federal Reserve’s tightening. US domestic data still justify an initial rate rise in the next few months. But the biggest uncertainty surrounds China.

因此，全球经济仍将处于不稳定状态。当然，这将在很大程度上取决于美联储(Fed)收紧货币政策的时间和路线。美国国内数据仍支持在未来几个月开始加息。但最大的不确定性来自中国。

Despite botched attempts to prop up share prices and a confusing mini-depreciation of the renminbi, the leadership in Beijing seems to be on the right policy route.

尽管支撑股价的救市努力显得笨拙，将人民币小幅贬值的政策也令人困惑，但中国领导人的政策路线似乎是正确的。

But China’s resolve will not truly be tested until economic weakness finally spreads to the labour market over the next 12-18 months. And even if Beijing sticks to reform, it could easily fail to pull off the transition from investment led to consumption powered growth. Investment is the most volatile component of output and in China accounts for a whopping 46 per cent of GDP, so the possibility of a self-fulfilling investment led collapse is real.

然而，在经济疲弱最终在未来12至18个月蔓延至劳动力市场之前，中国的决心不会受到真正考验。即便中国坚持改革，也很容易无法实现经济增长模式从投资拉动型向消费拉动型的转变。投资是产出中最具波动性的组成部分，在中国，投资占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例高达46%，因此，具有自我实现效应的投资导致经济崩溃的可能性是真实存在的。

A lot hinges, too, on how others respond to China’s slowdown. If Beijing sticks to the path of reform, it can pull its economy out of the doldrums after a few years of economic and financial distress. But it needs the rest of the world to accept the transformation it is attempting and what it entails. The US must welcome China into the global financial system and allow it to take its rightful place in global monetary institutions. Whether the renminbi is added to the currencies that make up the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right unit will be a litmus test.

这也在很大程度上取决于其他国家对中国经济放缓的回应。如果中国坚持改革道路，在经过几年的经济和金融困境后，中国有望让经济走出低迷。但这需要全球其他国家接受中国正在尝试的转型及其后果。美国必须欢迎中国进入全球金融体系，并允许中国在全球货币机构中占据合理地位。人民币是否被纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权的货币篮子，将是一块试金石。

If it is rejected, Beijing may well redouble efforts to establish an alternative financial system centred on the renminbi, not the dollar. The US must also accept that China’s embrace of a greater role for market forces — a central aim of US international economic policy — will involve a stronger dollar.

如果遭到否决，中国很有可能会加倍努力建立一个以人民币（而非美元）为中心的替代金融体系。美国还必须接受一点，中国朝着让市场力量发挥更大作用（这是美国国际经济政策的一个主要目标）的方向迈进将意味着美元走强。

The key economy to watch in trying to assess the global response is Japan. “Abenomics”, the economic programme of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is turning into a policy disaster. It has done little to stimulate domestic demand and the Bank of Japan will be under political pressure to launch yet another round of quantitative easing. This would open a new front in the currency war and make it difficult for China and the US not to respond. After China’s depreciation, Japan is the remaining piece of the puzzle that could surprise global markets. A full-blown currency war and the eventual protectionism it would spark is the main danger for the global economy and risk assets. At present, though, this is not our main scenario.

在试图评估全球其他国家的回应时，一个需要关注的关键经济体是日本。日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)提出的“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)振兴经济计划正变成一场政策灾难。它几乎无助于刺激内需，而日本央行(Bank of Japan)将面临政治压力，迫使其推出新一轮量化宽松政策。这将为货币战争开启一条新的前线，中国和美国很难不做出回应。在中国将人民币贬值后，日本是有可能让全球市场感到意外的另一个因素。全面货币战争及其将引发的保护主义是全球经济和风险资产面临的主要危险。不过，就目前来说，这并非我们的主要假设情景。

Recent events have understandably dented confidence in China, but investors should not let their anxieties blind them to the bigger picture: important changes are under way. Beijing’s apparent determination to clean up past excesses and to liberalise and rebalance its economy is light at the end of the tunnel. As such, false alarms about the end of the US cycle and fears that the Fed is making a policy mistake should provide buyable dips in US equities.

可想而知，最近的局势削弱了投资者对中国的信心，但投资者不应因为焦虑而看不到这个更重要的事实：中国正在进行重大的改革。显然，中国正试图整顿以往的过度现象，推进经济自由化和再平衡，这种决心是黑暗尽头的曙光。就此而言，有关美国周期结束的虚假警报以及美联储将犯下政策失误的担忧，应会制造一个趁低吸纳美国股票的机会。