经济赛跑谁更快 对世界经济增长贡献最大的国家

On the face of things, forecasts for global economic growth display little of interest. The world economy is expected to expand between 3 and 4 per cent a year until the next decade, a rate within spitting distance of the average pace of global growth over the past 40 years.

表面上看，对全球经济增长的预测十分无趣。直到2020年，世界经济预计将以每年3%至4%的速度增长，与过去40年全球经济增长的平均水平没多大差别。

Yet boring headlines hide very interesting trends beneath the surface. While growth was centred in the advanced world in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, more recently it has moved to emerging economies, regardless of how much concern there should be about their current fragility.

然而，乏味的标题将非常有趣的趋势掩盖在表面之下。全球增长在上世纪70至90年代集中于发达国家，而近些年来已转移至新兴经济体，不论后者当前的脆弱性应该引起多么大的担忧。

According to the International Monetary Fund, of the eight countries expected to contribute most to global economic expansion over the next five years, only the US and South Korea are advanced economies. The US comes third, contributing 10 per cent of total world growth, after China and India, which together are expected to account for 43 per cent.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，在预计未来5年对全球经济增长贡献最大的8个国家中，只有美国和韩国是发达经济体。美国位列第三，对世界总体经济增长的贡献为10%，位列中国和印度之后，后两国预计将合计贡献43%。

The world’s wealth might still be predominantly based in the traditional rich countries, but growth is elsewhere as many poorer countries catch up with the rich world. Turkey, for example, is expected to add more growth in dollar terms to the global economy over the next five years than Germany.

全球财富或许仍主要分布在传统富裕国家，但随着许多较贫穷国家赶上富裕世界，经济增长却分布在富裕国家之外。例如，以美元计算，土耳其未来5年对全球经济的贡献预计将超过德国。

Emerging economies are disappointing

新兴经济体令人失望

Although poorer countries are more dynamic and are where global growth is located, they have flattered to deceive in recent years, confounding over-optimistic forecasters time after time.

虽然较贫穷国家更具活力而且也是全球经济增长的所在地，但它们近年来的表现却名不副实，让过于乐观的预测者一次又一次失望。

Every year since 2011, forecasters have started to predict the following year’s likely expansion in buoyant mood only to grow more pessimistic as time passes and data begin to roll in. Not only have forecasts for emerging economy growth persistently deteriorated for every year from 2012 to the latest forecasts for 2016, economists have also learnt from the past. Every year they have been less optimistic than the last, but still been surprised by weaker data.

自2011年以来，预测者每年都在乐观的心情中开始预测第二年可能的增长，但随着时间推移及数据的涌现，他们却变得越来越悲观。从2012年到对2016年的最新预测，对新兴经济体增长的预测每年都在持续恶化，经济学家们也从过去吸取了教训。每一年他们的乐观都变少，但更加疲弱的数据还是让他们吃惊。

Economists appear to have made four errors. First, they have extrapolated the remarkable pre-crisis economic growth rates of emerging economies into the present, not noticing that underlying productivity growth has declined as poorer countries have caught up with their richer cousins. Second, they have not taken sufficient notice of a slowing trend of employment growth in emerging markets, making growth harder to achieve.

经济学家似乎犯了4点错误。首先，他们将危机前新兴经济体令人瞩目的经济增长率外推到现在，却没有注意到随着较贫穷国家赶上较富裕的国家，潜在的生产率增长已经放缓。第二，他们没有充分注意到新兴市场就业增长放缓的趋势，后者使得增长更难以实现。

Third, as these disappointments have come to light, underlying policy weaknesses have surfaced in many countries, such as the corruption scandal involving Brazil’s Petrobras state-owned oil company, which had previously been hidden by rapid expansion. Lastly, with the surprise slower growth has come a sudden drop in commodity prices, particularly hurting those countries dependent on ore, metal and oil exports.

第三，随着这些令人失望之处的暴露，许多国家潜在的政策漏洞也显露出来，例如涉及巴西国有的巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)、此前曾被快速经济增长所掩盖的腐败丑闻。最后，意想不到的经济增长放缓使得大宗商品价格突然下跌，对那些依赖矿石、金属及石油出口的国家造成了尤其严重的伤害。

Countries that let themselves down

辜负自己期望的国家

Comparing recent expectations for 2015 growth with those three years ago highlights the significant countries with the most disappointing economic performance — those which let themselves down.

将对2015年经济增长的最新预期与3年前的预测进行对比，可以突显出那些经济表现最令人失望的重要国家——那些辜负自己期望的国家。

The most glaring example of unexpected weakness comes from Russia, which was thought to be set fair for persistent growth rates of about 4 per cent. This year the economy will contract by about an equivalent rate, hit hard by falling oil prices and economic sanctions following its military activity in Ukraine.

俄罗斯是发生意外疲软的最明显例子，该国曾被认为一定能够保持住4%左右的经济增速。由于受油价下跌以及出兵乌克兰后遭受经济制裁的沉重打击，俄罗斯经济今年将出现4%左右的萎缩。

Almost as bad has been Brazil, which has declined from poster child of Latin America to a country regarded as having weak fundamentals, corporate scandals and a fragile policy framework. Nigeria and South Africa have also been among the five most disappointing large economies, compared with the expectations set three years ago, again largely because of falls in commodity prices.

巴西表现几乎同样糟糕，它已经从拉美的楷模沦为一个被认为基本面疲弱、企业丑闻不断以及政策框架脆弱的国家。与3年前的预测相比，尼日利亚和南非也属于5个最令人失望的大型经济体之列，原因同样是大宗商品价格下跌。

The one vast economy where commodity prices play no role is China, which the government projects to grow at just below 7 per cent this year — though this is contested by some and still well below the 8.5 per cent rate thought possible in 2012.

唯一未受大宗商品价格影响的大型经济体是中国。中国政府预计今年的增速将略低于7%——尽管这一目标遭到一些人质疑，而且远低于2012年时预测的8.5%的可能增速。

Nations which exceeded expectations

超出预期的国家

For every laggard, there is a gazelle. Although global growth is slower than hoped three years ago, many of the advanced economies are recovering faster than was expected at the height of the euro crisis, a time when it was feared the rest of the periphery was still vulnerable to a funding strike for their debt.

对应每个落后者，都有一个飞人。尽管全球经济增速慢于3年前的预期，但许多发达经济体的复苏速度比欧元危机最严峻时的预测要快，当时的担忧是，欧元区其他外围国家仍然易于受到债务筹资困难的冲击。

Spain is the star performer, expected to expand more than 3 per cent this year compared with the 1.5 per cent thought possible three years ago. Germany is also exceeding expectations although its growth rate is still anticipated as being modest this year and below 2 per cent.

西班牙有明星般的表现，预计今年经济增速将超过3%，而3年前预测的可能增速仅为1.5%。德国也超出了预期，尽管预测仍认为其今年的增长将表现平平——低于2%。

The one large emerging economy to be performing better than expected is India. Helped by lower commodity prices and a better macroeconomic policy framework, the Indian economy is now expected to post growth of about 7.5 per cent this year. Its expansion was expected back in 2012 to be almost a percentage point lower.

印度是唯一表现超出预期的大型新兴经济体。受益于大宗商品价格下跌以及较好的宏观经济政策框架，印度今年经济增速有望达到7.5%左右，比2012年时的预测高了近一个百分点。

Generally there are relatively few star performers, explaining the sombre global economic outlook, but the picture remains too strong to be talking yet of a global economic downturn.

通常情况下，经济表现上的明星国家相对较少，这可以解释暗淡的全球经济前景，但整体经济形势依然很强健，还未到谈论一场全球经济衰退的时候。