东非铁路受益于中国政策抱负

A few miles outside the town of Makindu on the Nairobi-Mombasa road sits a heavily guarded compound. Only the sign outside, in red Chinese lettering, indicates that this is the project site for “section 9” of a new $4bn Chinese-built railway that will run 300 miles between the Kenyan capital and the Indian Ocean port.

在蒙内公路（蒙巴萨至内罗毕）沿线的马金杜镇外数英里的地方，有一个戒备森严的大院。只有从外面的中文红字招牌才能看出，这是中方承建的40亿美元新建铁路“第九标段”的项目工地。这条全长300英里的铁路将会把肯尼亚首都和蒙巴萨这个印度洋港口连接起来。

The railway is the centrepiece of an infrastructure splurge by President Uhuru Kenyatta, who faces re-election this year and whose Kenyan government has invested heavily in roads, pipelines, oil development and geothermal power.

蒙内铁路是肯尼亚总统乌呼鲁?肯雅塔(Uhuru Kenyatta)发起的基础设施建设潮的核心，他将在今年争取连任，其政府大举投资于公路、管道、石油开发和地热发电。

It is also one of China’s most important investments in east Africa and follows the opening in January of a $4.2bn, 470-mile line from Djibouti to Addis Ababa, the capital of landlocked Ethiopia, replacing the 100-year-old French-built railway. And contrary to some critics, who have voiced concerns at China’s growing presence in Africa, residents of Makindu are upbeat on the biggest infrastructure project in Kenya since independence 54 years ago.

这也是中国在东非最重要的投资项目之一。今年1月，投资42亿美元、全长470英里的吉亚铁路（从吉布地通往内陆国家埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴）启用，取代了法国人建设的已有100年历史的铁路。与一些对中国在非洲触角越伸越长表示担忧的批评相反，马金杜居民对肯尼亚自54年前独立以来最大的基础设施项目感到乐观。

“It’s very smart,” says Elizabeth Wanjiru Ngima, a housewife, referring to the elevated line and towering new station just outside town. “It’s very quick, very quiet and when you are on it you [will] feel like you are in heaven,” she adds, conceding that she has not yet ridden on the new train, which will be commissioned in June.

家庭妇女伊丽莎白?万伊鲁?恩吉马(Elizabeth Wanjiru Ngima)在谈到镇外的高架铁路和巍峨的新车站时表示：“它非常漂亮。”她补充称：“它非常快、非常安静，当你坐在上面的时候，你会感觉像是在天堂。”她承认自己还没有坐过新火车——后者将于今年6月进行调试。

Other residents of Makindu, including the barber, counter a common complaint in Africa that Chinese do not hire local people, saying the construction company employs Kenyan labourers, guards and chefs.

马金杜的其他居民（包括镇上的理发师）反驳了非洲大陆常见的一个抱怨，即中国人不雇佣当地人，他们说，这家建筑公司雇佣了肯尼亚工人、保安和厨师。

In the past 10 years, China has gone from having little presence in Kenya to becoming one of its most important trading and investment partners. Thanks to shipments of rolling stock and other equipment, Kenya’s imports from China ballooned to nearly $5bn in 2016 — a threefold increase from 2010 — against $780m from the US.

在过去10年里，中国在肯尼亚几乎从零开始，迅速发展成为该国最重要的贸易和投资伙伴之一。得益于铁路车辆和其他设备的进口，肯尼亚从中国的进口在2016年飙升至近50亿美元（是2010年的3倍），而从美国进口只有7.8亿美元。

Kenya is on the outer reaches of China’s One Belt One Road project, through which Beijing intends to invest almost $1tn in infrastructure on the old Silk Road and as far as Africa’s east coast, in a push to improve trade links, win political influence and deploy the excess capacity of its steel and construction industries.

肯尼亚处于中国“一带一路”项目的外围。北京方面有意通过“一带一路”项目，在古老的丝绸之路以及远至非洲东海岸的境外投资近1万亿美元建设基础设施，目的是改善贸易链接，赢得政治影响力，并且消化国内钢铁和建筑行业的过剩产能。

The Nairobi-Mombasa railway is the first leg of a line intended to go all the way to Kampala in Uganda and, eventually, to Rwanda, knitting together swaths of the east African Community’s emerging trade bloc. It will replace the near-defunct British railway — dubbed the “Lunatic Line” because of the cost in lives and money it took to build — constructed in the late 19th century.

蒙内铁路是一条国际铁路的第一段，这条铁路随后将延伸至乌干达的坎帕拉，最终抵达卢旺达，将新兴的东非共同体(East African Community)贸易集团的大片地区连接起来。届时它将取代19世纪末由英国人建设的、如今近乎荒废的铁路——当年由于建造铁路导致的巨大生命和成本代价，那条铁路有“神经病铁路”之称。

“The entire Africa continent can be connected by Chinese rail, so this Kenya rail is a kind of prototype for all future projects,” says Wang Dehua, a professor at Shanghai Institute for International Studies. “It is a big strategic move for our country.”

上海国际问题研究院(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies)教授王德华表示：“整个非洲大陆都可以用中国铁路连接起来，因此这条肯尼亚铁路是未来所有项目的某种原型。对我们国家来说，这是一个重大的战略举措。”

China is providing Kenya with financing for roughly 90 per cent of the Nairobi-Mombasa project. The railway is being built by state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation, which will operate it for the first five years, and financed by China’s Eximbank. Of $3.6bn in financing, $2bn is a 15-year loan at Libor plus 360 basis points. The remaining $1.6bn is on concessional terms of 2 per cent interest, repayable over 20 years, according to the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University.

中国为蒙内铁路项目提供了大约90%的融资。蒙内铁路由国有的中国路桥公司(China Road and Bridge Corporation)承建——该公司还将负责头5年的运营——并获得中国进出口银行(Exim Bank of China)的融资。据美国约翰?霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)的“中非研究倡议”(China-Africa Research Initiative)介绍，在36亿美元的融资中，有20亿美元是15年贷款，利率为伦敦银行同业拆借利率(Libor)加360个基点。其余16亿美元是2%的优惠利率贷款，分20年偿还。

The loans, which have pushed Kenya’s debt above 50 per cent of output, have raised concern that Mr Kenyatta’s government might be building a white elephant. Critics say the railway will cost significantly more per mile than equivalent projects in Ethiopia and Morocco, raising suspicion that much has been creamed off by unscrupulous politicians.

这些贷款使得肯尼亚的债务升至相当于GDP的50%以上，还引发人们担心，肯雅塔领导的政府可能在建设华而不实的东西。批评者们表示，该铁路每英里成本显著高于埃塞俄比亚和摩洛哥的同类项目，令人怀疑有很多钱被不择手段的政客们侵吞了。

Kwame Owino, executive director of the Institute of Economic Affairs, complains over the lack of transparency of a project he says was negotiated in secret.

肯尼亚经济事务研究所(Institute of Economic Affairs)的执行总监夸梅?奥维诺(Kwame Owino)抱怨称，这个秘密谈判达成的项目缺乏透明度。

“It’s clear that Kenya got the short end of the stick,” he says. “This is a very expensive piece of infrastructure whose specifications have been overstated.”

他说：“肯尼亚显然吃亏了。这是非常昂贵的基础设施，它的技术指标被夸大了。”

Mr Owino adds that the advertised improvement in speed — just four hours from coast to capital, compared with double that by truck — is not important when it comes to cargo. “The economic benefits for Kenya are exaggerated.”

奥维诺补充称，就货运而言，被大肆宣扬的速度提高并不重要——从海岸到首都只需4个小时，而卡车运输需要8个小时。“给肯尼亚带来的经济效益被夸大了。”

China has not been exactly open about the railway. At Makindu, the Financial Times was politely referred to the Chinese embassy in Nairobi, which refused a request for an interview. Still, China Road and Bridge has sought to head off criticism by employing nearly 20,000 local workers. It has also made concessions to environmentalists by building underpasses for wildlife to cross the section of railway that passes through Tsavo National Park.

中国方面对这条铁路的情况不是很愿意公开。在马金杜，英国《金融时报》的采访要求遭到礼貌拒绝，让记者去找中国驻内罗毕大使馆，而后者拒绝接受采访。然而，中国路桥公司寻求通过雇佣近2万名当地工人来反驳批评。该公司还对环保主义者做出让步，为野生动物建造了地下通道，让它们得以穿越经过察沃国家公园(Tsavo National Park)的那段铁路。

Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based investment consultant, reckons the economic benefits could be higher than sceptics think if the rail makes Kenya a more efficient transport conduit for east African trade.

内罗毕投资顾问阿里-汗?撒特彻(Aly-Khan Satchu)认为，如果蒙内铁路使肯尼亚成为效率更高的东非贸易通道，经济效益可能超出怀疑者的预期。

China, not always known for its soft-power skills, may even be learning a few tricks, he says, for example by training Kenyan women to be train drivers.

他说，并不总是以软实力闻名的中国甚至学会了一些技巧，例如培训肯尼亚妇女当火车司机。

Whatever the criticisms about China’s investment drive in other parts of Africa, they are not evident on the streets of Nairobi.

无论非洲其他国家如何抨击中国的投资努力，在内罗毕的街头上看不到这类迹象。

“We heard that the British gave billions of shillings to build roads but they never got built,” says Lillian Wamuyu, who helps run slum schools in the capital. “But if you see two Chinese working, you know that road will be done in two months.”

在首都帮助运营贫民学校的莉莲?瓦木峪(Lillian Wamuyu)表示：“我们听说，英国人拿出数十亿先令建造公路，但它们从未建成。但如果你看到两个中国人干活，你就知道，那条公路将在两个月后建成。”