中国限产让看跌煤炭者失手

If the first rule of macro trading is “don’t fight the Fed” then the first rule of raw materials must be “don’t fight Beijing”.

如果“不要与美联储(Fed)对抗”是宏观交易的第一准则，那么原材料市场的第一准则肯定是“不要与中国对抗”。

It is a truth coal Traders are discovering after China upended the market with plans to impose a five-day working week in a bid to cut overcapacity.

这是煤炭交易商正在发现的一个真理，此前中国计划强制执行每周5天工作制以削减过剩产能，此举颠覆了市场。

Since the policy was announced in March, the price of thermal coal has risen by 20 per cent as Chinese traders have been forced to chase cargoes in the seaborne market or draw down stocks.

自从今年3月中国宣布这项政策以来，热煤价格已上涨20%，中国交易商被迫抢购海运市场的货源或削减库存。

The rally has wrongfooted many market participants who were betting on another year of falling prices for thermal coal, which is used to generate electricity and is a source of profits for mining houses such as Glencore and Rio Tinto.

煤炭价格上涨令很多市场参与者措手不及，此前他们押注于热煤价格经历又一个价格下跌之年。用于发电的热煤是嘉能可(Glencore)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等矿业公司的利润来源。

At least one big participant, traders say, has been caught on the wrong side of a major position that was designed to protect against falling prices. Beijing’s directive has also turned on its head the widely held view that Chinese imports of thermal coal would dwindle from the 140m tonnes purchased last year.

交易商表示，至少有一家大型参与者在旨在对冲价格下跌的大笔交易头寸上失手。中国的指令还颠覆了这种普遍观点：中国热煤进口将低于去年购买的1.40亿吨。

“Thermal coal bears, among which we were one of the biggest, have been reminded this year that it is not wise to fight the Chinese government,” says Colin Hamilton, head of commodity research at Macquarie. “As long as China remains a meaningful thermal coal importer, it will act as a price setter.”

“看跌热煤价格的机构（我们是其中规模最大的机构之一）今年被提醒，与中国政府对抗是不明智的，”麦格理(Macquarie)大宗商品研究主管科林•汉密尔顿(Colin Hamilton)表示，“只要中国仍是重要的热煤进口国，它就会设定价格。”

For years China has been trying to put coal on a more stable footing, but the latest reforms are some of the first to have an immediate impact on the broader market. Mines normally operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

多年来，中国一直试图提升煤炭市场的稳定程度，但最新改革是对整体市场产生立竿见影效果的首批措施之一。煤矿通常每天24小时、一周七天运营。

The benchmark price for Asia — thermal coal shipped from the Australian port of Newcastle — is up by more than a quarter since its lows in January and now trades above $61 a tonne. Other coal markers have seen similar gains but remain well below their 2008 peaks of nearly $200 a tonne.

亚洲基准价格（从澳大利亚港口纽卡斯尔发运的热煤价格）较今年1月的低点上涨逾四分之一，如今位于每吨61美元的上方。其他煤炭基准价格出现类似上涨，但仍远远低于2008年每吨近200美元的峰值水平。

Analysts estimate domestic production in China was down 10 to 15 per cent in May from a year ago, while latest official data point towards rising imports.

分析师们估计，今年5月中国国内煤炭产量同比下降10%至15%，同时最新官方数据表明进口增加。

“Before China announced its ‘de-capacity’ efforts, we thought seaborne imports would fall to about 110m tonnes [this year]. But now, we think they’ll hold at 140m tonnes or maybe even get a bit higher,” says Andy Roberts, head of thermal coal research at Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy.

咨询公司Wood Mackenzie热煤研究部主管安迪•罗伯茨(Andy Roberts)表示：“在中国宣布‘限产’举措之前，我们曾认为，（今年）海运进口将降至1.10亿吨左右。但如今，我们认为，进口量将保持在1.40亿吨甚至可能更高一点。”

Analysts say the decline in domestic production has coincided with increased demand in China, as power consumption picks up over the hot summer months. Morgan Stanley reckons coal-fired power production rose 5 per cent month-on-month in June and will rise further through July and August.

分析师们表示，国内产量下滑的同时，中国需求上升，因炎热的夏季耗电量增加。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估计，今年6月燃煤发电量环比增长5%，7月和8月将进一步增长。

“The combination of rising demand growth and impaired supply has prompted an inventory drawdown,” says Morgan Stanley analyst Tom Price.

摩根士丹利分析师汤姆•普赖斯(Tom Price)表示：“需求增速加快以及供应受限的双重作用，已导致库存下降。”

Globally, thermal coal production has been declining for more than a year as the collapse in prices has forced miners to scrap new projects.

从全球来看，热煤产量下滑已持续一年多，价格暴跌迫使矿商取消新项目。

But traders who handle millions of tonnes of coal a year say the recovery in prices cannot be solely explained by decisions taken by China. A weaker US dollar and the oil price, which has almost doubled from its January low, have also contributed. Another influence has been the derivatives market.

但每年经手数百万吨煤炭的交易商表示，中国做出的决定不能完全解释煤炭价格复苏。美元贬值和油价（较1月低位上涨近一倍）也起到了一定作用。另一个影响因素是衍生品市场。

Traders say a producer had been selling call options to banks in the over-the-counter market. These trades, known as covered positions, were profitable as long as prices kept declining. But that is no longer true. A seller of a call option pockets a premium upfront but delivers an asset at a specified price or time if it is exercised by the holder.

交易商表示，一家生产商曾在场外交易市场向银行卖出认购期权。这些交易被称为抵补头寸，只要价格一直下跌就能盈利。但现在情况变了。认购期权卖家将在交易之时斩获一次清偿权利金，但在期权持有人行权时须以特定价格或在特定时间交付资产。

Faced with growing losses on the call options as coal prices rallied through June, traders say the producer has been forced to buy futures contracts to hedge its position. But the volume of futures it has been trying to buy has been so big that it has pushed up prices.

随着整个6月煤炭价格出现上涨，面对日益加剧的认购期权亏损，交易商们表示，这家生产商被迫买入期货合约以对冲其头寸。但该生产商试图购买的期货合约数量非常大，以至于推高了煤炭价格。

The view in the market is that the call options expire in September and December, one reason traders believe prices might have peaked for 2016.

市场认为，这些认购期权将在9月和12月到期，这是交易商们认为2016年煤炭价格可能已经见顶的一个原因。

“We do not expect this China induced tightness to hold beyond the next couple of months,” says Mr Hamilton. Others are not sure. Citigroup says prices could hit $90 a tonne if La Niña brings heavy rain to Australia and Indonesia.

汉密尔顿表示：“我们认为，中国引发的市场吃紧状况不会持续到未来两个月以后。”还有一些人则不那么确定。花旗集团(Citigroup)表示，如果“拉尼娜”气候给澳大利亚和印尼带来强降雨，煤炭价格可能会达到每吨90美元。