精确计算中国为煤炭付出的代价

The Natural Resources Defense Council has presented research that attempts to take on the Herculean task of quantifying the environmental, social and economic toll of China’s reliance on coal.

自然资源保护协会(Natural Resources Defense Council)所展示的研究试图开展一项艰难任务：对中国的煤炭依赖造成的环境、社会和经济损害进行量化。

The report, released Tuesday by the New York-based environmental organization, is part of its China Coal Consumption Cap Project, begun last October in conjunction with Chinese government research organizations, universities and industry groups to help China begin diminishing its use of coal by 2020. Researchers from Tsinghua and Peking universities, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other government-affiliated bodies worked together to develop concrete figures that, according to the study, show how a broad range of ecological problems and human suffering resulting from coal consumption can be discussed in terms of cold, hard cash.

周二由这个设在纽约的环境组织所发布的报告，是中国煤炭消耗总量控制工程(China Coal Consumption Cap Project)的部分内容。该项目开始于去年10月，旨在帮中国在2020年前减少煤炭使用量，中国的政府研究机构、大学和工业组织也参与了进来。来自清华大学、北京大学、中国社会科学院及其他政府相关机构的研究人员通过共同合作得出了切实的数据，表明煤炭消耗所引起大量生态问题和对人的伤害，也是可以通过冰冷而严酷的金钱角度进行探讨的。

Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser on energy, environment and climate change at the council, said that the report was a response to China’s lack of clear quantitative data on the external costs of coal use. ‘‘In order to understand the true impact of coal, we absolutely must talk about all of the hidden costs to society behind it as an industry.’’

自然资源保护协会能源、环境与气候变化高级顾问杨富强表示，在煤炭使用的外部成本方面，中国缺乏量化数据，这篇报告对此做了回应。“为了理解煤炭的真正影响，我们绝对应该考虑煤炭作为一个行业，让社会付出的潜在代价。”

The most severe of the costs, air pollution, is readily apparent to the 70 percent of the country’s population found by the study to be living in regions where levels exceed World Health Organization recommendations. Coal and coal-related industrial processes account for 50 percent to 60 percent of the airborne pollutants known as PM 2.5 — or particles 2.5 micrometers or smaller — that make their way deep into the lungs, increasing the likelihood of lung cancer, stroke and other diseases. According to the report, approximately 670,000 people died because of PM 2.5 pollution generated by coal use in 2012.

这些代价中最严重的是空气污染，这对于中国70%的人口而言尤其明显。研究发现，在这些人生活的地区，污染水平超过了世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)的推荐标准。对于通过空气传播的污染物PM2.5，50%至60%是来自煤炭及煤炭相关产业。PM2.5是直径小于等于2.5微米的颗粒物，它们能够深入肺部，增加人们罹患肺癌、中风和其他疾病的危险。报告称，2012年，大约有67万人死于煤炭使用所引起的PM2.5污染。

There appears to be little chance that China will ever be completely weaned off coal, despite a decrease in coal consumption for the first time in nearly a century over the first three quarters of this year. There have also been recent high-profile promises to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, including one by Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli at the United Nations climate change summit meeting in September. Yet coal, naturally abundant in the country, accounts for 65 percent of China’s primary energy consumption, the report said. China is the world’s largest consumer of the resource.

中国似乎不太可能完全放弃煤炭，虽然今年前三个季度，煤炭消耗量在将近一个世纪的时间里首次出现下跌。中国最近也曾高调承诺要减少二氧化碳的排放；9月，中国国务院副总理张高丽就曾在联合国(United Nations)的气候变化峰会上做出相关承诺。但该报告称，中国的煤炭资源丰富，煤在该国主要能源消耗中占65%。中国是世界上最大的煤炭消费国。

The price of coal in China is now just over 500 renminbi, or a little more than $80, per ton, a seemingly inexpensive energy source. The study, which used data from 2012, when coal cost more than $100, asserts that for every ton, an additional $43 in social costs was imposed on the country. Pricing mechanisms do not reflect this external expenditure, the report said, because coal producers are required to pay an environmental tax of only $5 to $8 per ton. The study also found that it is consumers like factories and power plants rather than mining companies that are responsible for the majority of this social toll, with 64 percent of the total burden coming from the pollutants released during combustion as coal is transformed into electricity for industrial and residential use.

中国目前的煤价为每吨500元人民币多一点（约合80美元），表面看来是一种廉价的能源。该报告使用了2012年的数据，当时煤价超过了100美元，该报告称，每吨煤还会耗费43美元的社会成本。报告称，定价机制没有反映出这种外部支出，因为煤炭生产商需要支付环境税，每吨只要5到8美元。该研究还发现，应该为大部分社会成本负责的是工厂、发电厂等用户，而并不是煤炭公司，总负担中有64%是通过煤炭燃烧产生电力，供工厂及居民使用的过程中产生的污染。

The council and its Chinese partners are developing carbon tax proposals that would take into consideration these ‘‘true costs,’’ to adequately offset them.

自然资源保护协会及其中国合作伙伴正在制定碳税提案，该提案会将这些“真实成本”考虑在内，以便充分抵消它们。

Zhou Fengqi, senior adviser at the Energy Research Institute — a government-affiliated research group that is part of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency — applauded the new findings, with reservations. He was skeptical that the goals would be feasible within the span of a single five-year plan. ‘‘If we are going to implement such taxes, it must be done in steps so as not to have a negative effect on the Chinese economy, even in the short term,’’ Mr. Zhou said.

能源研究所高级顾问周凤起对这些新研究表示称赞，但有所保留。这家政府下属的研究机构隶属于中国最高经济规划机构国家发展与改革委员会。他对能否在一个五年计划内完成目标表示怀疑。他说，“如果我们准备征收这种税，必须一步一步来，避免对中国经济产生负面影响，即便是短期内的负面影响。”

But he acknowledged that China could no longer turn a blind eye to its smoggy skies: ‘‘Even in Zhongnanhai’’ — the leadership compound in Beijing — ‘‘they’re breathing in all this pollution and realize how uncomfortable it is.’’

但他承认中国不会再对雾霾天视而不见：“即便在中南海”——领导人在北京的住所——“他们吸入的也是受到污染的空气，他们知道这有多不舒服。”