Lex专栏 中国煤炭钢铁行业需要猛药

For the past couple of decades, business professors have spun price deflation as a result of “innovative disruption”. In fact, the old economy — heavy industry — has been slowly killing itself for years.

过去几十年，商学教授把价格下跌说成是“创新性破坏”(innovative disruption)的结果。事实上，重工业这类传统经济产业多年来一直在缓慢地自杀。

Economic slowdown in China has brought the latest example: overcapacity in steelmaking and coal mining depressing prices.

中国经济放缓就带来了最新的例子：炼钢和采煤行业的产能过剩抑制了价格。

Though the Chinese government understands the problem full well, its latest solution will not work.

尽管中国政府完全明白问题所在，其最新解决方案却不会产生效果。

China’s coal companies carry a lot of debt; some as much as their entire asset value. The banking regulator, China Banking Regulatory Commission, has had to get involved. To cut banks’ loan exposure to coal (and steel as well), the CBRC reportedly has plans to encourage local governments to aid the most indebted steel and coal companies by participating in debt-for-equity swaps with the banks.

中国煤炭企业背负大量债务，部分企业的债务已相当于其全部资产价值。中国银行业监管机构不得不介入。据报道，为削减银行对煤炭（及钢铁）行业的贷款敞口，中国银监会(CBRC)已计划鼓励地方政府为债务负担最重的钢企和煤企提供援手，参与这些企业与银行之间的债转股计划。

Banks could use the help. In a worst-case scenario, non-performing loans could jump fivefold from the current 1.7 per cent of the total, thinks Credit Suisse. The coal and steel companies are even more needy. Shanghai-listed miners, such as Shanxi Coking Coal, jumped on the reports yesterday.

银行也许需要这样的援助。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)估计，在最糟糕的情况下，中国银行业的不良贷款率可能会从目前的1.7%跃升四倍。煤企和钢企就更需要了。昨天报道出来后，沪市矿业股应声大涨，比如山西焦煤(Shanxi Coking Coal)。

The promise of intervention in the coal and steel industries has coincided with a big rally in the prices of the underlying commodities. Thermal coal prices in China have jumped by nearly a third from the lows late last year. Meanwhile, the proportion of Chinese steel mills losing money has dropped to a fifth; a year ago almost all were in the red. All of this eases the pressure on bloated industries and does nothing to remedy overcapacity. In July steel production continued to rise, and exports are up more than 8 per cent this year.

银监会承诺干预煤炭和钢铁行业之际，大宗商品价格已迎来大幅反弹。中国动力煤价格从去年底的低点上涨了近三分之一。与此同时，中国亏损炼钢厂所占比例也已下滑至五分之一，而一年前几乎所有钢厂都亏损。所有这一切减轻了这些臃肿行业的压力，但对解决过剩产能却毫无帮助。7月份，中国钢铁产量继续上升，而出口量今年以来上升逾8%。

Finance can provide pain relief but only harsh medicine — shutting uneconomic factories down — can cure. Extending the lives of zombie coal and steel companies will only prolong the “disruption” in these markets.

金融手段能缓解一时之痛，然而要想解决问题，就必须下猛药关闭经济效益不好的工厂。延长僵尸煤企和钢企的寿命，只会延长这些市场上的“破坏”(disruption)。