腾讯股价波动带来投资机遇
High expectations make for volatile shares, and for opportunity. The Chinese internet group Tencent released first-quarter results on Wednesday. Sales and profits beat analysts’ targets by 5 per cent. On Thursday, the stock dropped as much as 4 per cent before cooler traders pushed it back up.
高预期导致股价波动，也带来机会。周三，中国互联网集团腾讯(Tencent)公布了第一季度财报。销售额和利润均超出分析师预期目标5%。周四，腾讯股价一度下跌4%，随后较冷静的交易员把股价重新推高。
Tencent’s main businesses did well. Revenues from online games (more than half of the $5bn total) rose three-tenths year on year. More impressive: fees gathered from social networks, including China’s dominant chat app WeChat, grew nearly one half to $1.2bn — showing that the company is able to charge for add-ons and content.
腾讯主要业务进展良好。在线游戏收入（占其50亿美元总收入的一半以上）同比增长30%。更令人印象深刻的是：从社交网站，包括中国占主导地位的聊天App微信(WeChat)，收取的费用增长近50%，至12亿美元，表明该公司能够对附加服务和内容收费。
Revenue growth from advertising was disappointing. Although up 73 per cent year on year, this was a marked slowdown from a more than doubling last quarter. Seasonality was partly to blame, but Tencent also said that brands are reluctant to commit to marketing spend against China’s uncertain economic outlook.
广告收入增长数据令人失望。尽管同比增长73%，但这与上季度同比增长一倍以上的数据相比明显放缓。部分原因在于季节性，但是腾讯也表示，在中国经济前景不确定的情况下，各品牌不愿在市场营销上支出。
This makes sense, but is likely to be a blip. China’s ad spending is still low: $77bn in 2015, according to GroupM, around half that of the US. With a long way to catch up, industry analysts expect China spending to grow 10 per cent this year, twice the global rate.
这说得通，但可能只是暂时的。中国广告支出水平仍然较低：群邑(GroupM)数据显示，2015年中国广告支出为770亿美元，约为美国的一半。中国要赶上美国仍然有很长的路要走，在这种情况下，行业分析师预计中国今年广告支出将增长10%，是全球增速的两倍。
Tencent, with 80 per cent of its ad take from mobile devices, is in a good position. By eMarketer’s bullish estimates, digital ad spending in 2016 could account for nearly one-third of the China total, implying nearly 60 per cent growth. True, Tencent’s ad take is growing faster than that, but with 2015 revenues of only $2.7bn, there is plenty of room to gain share.
80%广告收入来自移动设备的腾讯处于有利位置。据eMarketer的乐观估计，2016年数字广告方面的支出将占到中国整体广告支出近三分之一，这意味着近60%的增长。没错，腾讯的广告收入增速更快，但是在2015年收入仅为27亿美元的情况下，腾讯仍有很大的空间获得更大的市场份额。
Tencent’s real constraint may be its emphasis on user experience over revenues. It could be more aggressive, perhaps. But it is wise to prioritise users — some of whom are already objecting to cluttered accounts — rather than aggravate them with too many ads too soon. The company has a proven ability to grow in unexpected ways, and the shares’ volatility is likely to keep generating opportunities.
腾讯真正的制约可能在于，它对用户体验的注重高于收入。也许它可以多一些生意眼。但是优先考虑用户（而不是过早插入太多广告来激怒他们）是明智的——部分用户已经开始反对乱七八糟的账户广告。腾讯拥有已经得到检验的能力，能够以令人意想不到的方式实现增长，同时其股价的波动性可能会继续创造机会。
