中国劳动大军将为全球消费贡献12%

China’s working-age population will account for 12 cents of every $1 spent worldwide in urban areas by 2030, reshaping the global economy much as the west’s baby-boomer generation did in its prime.

到2030年，全世界城市地区每1美元的支出中，中国劳动年龄人口将贡献12美分。他们将像西方婴儿潮一代在其年富力强时期那样，重塑全球经济。

Their annual consumption will more than double, from $2.5tn in 2015 to $6.7tn in 2030, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the eponymous consultancy.

咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)旗下研究机构麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute, MGI)的数据显示，中国劳动年龄人口的年消费额将从2015年的2.5万亿美元上升至2030年的6.7万亿美元，翻一番还多。

“This generation of consumers in China is more prosperous, more educated and more willing to spend a higher share of their income than previous generations were at the same age.

“与相同年龄段的前几代人相比，这一代中国消费者更加富裕，受教育程度更高，更愿意将收入中的更大一部分用作支出。”

“These consumers are now reaching income thresholds at which spending on services takes off rapidly,” McKinsey GI said.

MGI表示：“这些消费者现在正达到这样一个收入门槛，在这一阶段，服务方面的支出将迅速增长。”

Despite China’s longstanding one-child policy, McKinsey forecasts that the number of Chinese people aged between 15 and 59 will rise from 521m to 628m by 2030.

虽然中国长期实行独生子女政策，但麦肯锡预测，到2030年，中国15至59岁年龄段的人口将从5.21亿增至6.28亿。

However, the rising incomes of these workers will have a far greater impact, with the proportion of urban working-age households with monthly earnings of $2,100 or more tipped to rise from 4 per cent in 2010 to 54 per cent by 2030.

然而，这些劳动人口不断增加的收入将产生更为深远的影响。中国城市月收入2100美元以上的劳动年龄家庭所占的比例预计将从2010年的4%升至2030年的54%。

Driven by this, McKinsey sees the per capita consumption of urban working-age Chinese people rising at a compound annual growth rate of 5.4 per cent, raising spending per person from $4,800 to $10,700 by 2030.

由此，麦肯锡认为，中国城市劳动年龄人口人均消费的年均复合增长率将达到5.4%，使得人均支出从4800美元升至2030年的1.07万美元。

Even if this transpired, per capita consumption would still be a fraction of western levels, with McKinsey forecasting that working-age people in North America will increase their consumption from $39,000 a head last year to $48,000 by 2030, with the over-60s in the developed world spending a fraction more still, some $49,000.

即便这成为事实，这一人均消费水平与西方相比仍相形见绌。麦肯锡预测，北美劳动年龄人口的人均消费将从去年的3.9万美元提升至2030年的4.8万美元，而发达国家60岁以上人口的人均支出水平还要高一些，约为4.9万美元。

Nevertheless, the sheer size of this Chinese cohort, dwarfing the projected 191m working-age North Americans and 222m greying developed world types by 2030, will magnify their impact.

然而，中国劳动年龄人口的庞大规模将扩大其消费增长的影响。相比之下，到2030年，北美劳动年龄人口预计将只有1.91亿，发达国家老龄人口将达到2.22亿。

McKinsey predicted that working-age Chinese people will account for 18 per cent of global urban consumption growth by 2030, with their compatriots aged 60+ accounting for a further 10 per cent, as the first chart shows. (McKinsey does seem to be oddly obsessed with urban consumption, rather than consumption in general, but this does not matter too much as spending by those in areas it deems “urban” will account for 91 per cent of global spending growth in the period to 2030, it estimates).

如图一所示，麦肯锡预测，到2030年，中国劳动年龄人口将为全球城市消费增长贡献18%，中国60岁以上人口也将贡献10%。（麦肯锡似乎格外关注城市消费而忽视整体消费，但这影响不大，因为据它估计，从现在到2030年，“城市”地区的支出将占全球消费增长的91%。）

To put this into perspective, Europe’s much-discussed millennials (defined as those born between 1985 and 2000) will account for less than 2 per cent of global consumption growth in the period to 2030, says Richard Dobbs, a director of the McKinsey GI, who believes “the glamorisation of youth by marketers and advertising buyers is a vestige of the past”.

MGI负责人之一理查德•多布斯(Richard Dobbs)说，欧洲经常被讨论的“千禧一代”（1985年至2000年间出生的人口）将在截至2030年的全球消费增长中贡献不到2%。他认为“营销人员和广告购买者对青春的美化渲染是过去的残余”。

The analysis, based in part on interviews with 10,000 Chinese people and a separate survey of 22,000 people spread across 25 countries, suggests the Chinese will start to shake off their reputation as risk-averse savers.

这份分析报告部分基于对1万名中国消费者的采访以及对25个国家的2.2万消费者的独立调查。报告认为，中国人将开始摆脱作为厌恶风险的储蓄者的名声。

Those aged between 18 and 54 told McKinsey that, if their pay rose 10 per cent in the next 12 months, they would spend 43 per cent of this, above the 31-32 per cent in western Europe and Japan and 20 per cent in traditionally spendthrift North America, whose citizens say they would save 39 per cent and use 41 per cent to pay off debt.

年龄在18到54岁的中国消费者对麦肯锡表示，如果他们的收入在未来12个月能提高10%，他们将花掉其中的43%。西欧和日本的这一比例为31%至32%，北美为20%。传统上大手大脚的北美居民表示，他们将把其中的39%存起来，41%用来偿还债务。

As Chinese consumers begin to narrow the spending gap with their wealthier western peers, their pattern of consumption is also likely to change.

随着中国消费者开始缩小与更富裕的西方消费者之间的支出差距，他们的消费模式也可能随之改变。

As the second chart shows, food accounts for almost half the spending of even middle-class Chinese workers. Just 11 per cent of consumption is directed towards dining out and recreation, and 7 per cent to housing and utilities.

如图二所示，即使对于中国中产阶级劳动者来说，在食物上的花费也占据了将近一半的支出。只有11%的消费支出是用于外出就餐和娱乐，7%用于住房和水电杂费。

In contrast, US workers (or at least 25-34 year-olds) spend almost half their money on housing and utilities and a further quarter on dining out and recreation. Just 13 per cent goes on food.

相比之下，美国劳动人口（或者至少25-34岁年龄段人口）将近一半的支出用于住房和水电杂费，四分之一的支出用于外出就餐和娱乐。仅有13%的支出用于购买食物。

The over-60s in the developed world have a surprisingly similar spending mix to that of American millennials, admittedly with a little lower spending on housing and utilities and a little more on the category of education and healthcare.

发达国家60岁以上群体的支出结构与美国千禧一代有着惊人的相似，只不过他们在住房和水电费上的支出少一点，在教育和医疗方面的支出稍多一点。

As Chinese workers steadily become wealthier, it may seem logical to think their spending patterns will be reshaped to more readily replicate those in the developed world today.

随着中国劳动人口逐渐变得更加富裕，认为他们的消费模式将被重塑并逐渐复制现在发达国家的消费模式似乎是合情合理的。

This has not gone unnoticed in the west, with McDonald’s last week announcing plans to open 1,250 new outlets in China in the next five years, adding to the 2,000 it already has in the country.

西方并未忽视这一趋势。麦当劳(McDonald)上周宣布计划未来五年在中国开设1250家新店，目前麦当劳在中国拥有2000家餐厅。

One area where China is forging ahead of many of its western peers, however, is the importance it places on education. According to McKinsey, education accounts for half of the spending of the average Chinese 20-year-old, compared to less than a quarter in the US.

然而，中国消费者领先于很多西方消费者的地方在于他们对教育的重视程度。麦肯锡表示，在中国20岁年龄层的群体中，教育占总支出的比例达到一半，相比之下美国该群体的教育支出占比不足四分之一。

If the consultancy is correct, this differential could become larger still. In the period up to 2030, it expects spending on the education of the under-30s to account for 12.5 per cent of China’s overall consumption growth, just a fraction behind the 12.6 per cent it has pencilled in for Sweden, the country expected to prioritise education most of all.

如果麦肯锡预测没错的话，这种差异还可能进一步扩大。麦肯锡预计，到2030年，30岁以下群体的教育支出将占到中国整体消费增长的12.5%，仅次于瑞典预计将达到的12.6%。预计瑞典该年龄群体将把教育放在最优先的位置上。

As the final chart shows, most other major countries are expected to target education far less, from the likes of the US and Japan, which already spend four or five times as much per child as China, to Nigeria and India, which spend around one-seventh as much per child as China.

如图三所示，其他多数主要国家教育支出对消费增长的贡献预计会逊色许多，无论是美国和日本之类的国家（目前两国平均对每个孩子的教育支出是中国的四至五倍），还是尼日利亚和印度（平均对每个孩子的教育支出约为中国的七分之一）。

“One of the most striking consumption patterns is the very significant share of income that Chinese consumers are spending on education,” McKinsey said. “It is notable that both public and private education spend are rising, contributing to growth roughly equally.”

“最引人注目的消费模式之一是中国消费者把收入中的很大比例用作教育支出，”麦肯锡称，“值得注意的是，公共和私人教育支出都在增加，二者对消费增长的贡献几乎相当。”