时事新闻:下半年经济复苏还会是白日梦吗?

【英文原文】

Searching For Recovery

摘要：大多数预测人士似乎都认为经济增长将在未来几个季度持续疲软，但会在2008年下半年回升到趋势水平──雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)研究报告，2007年12月12日。

Most forecasters seem to expect growth to be weak for a few quarters, but then rebound back to trend in the second half of 2008... -Lehman Brothers research note, Dec. 12, 2007

What is shaping up as the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s will end in the second half of 2009. -Wells Fargo press release, Dec. 19, 2008

Calls for a 'second-half' recovery have been a common theme of this recession - and so far, have only underscored the degree to which forecasters underestimated the magnitude of this downturn. Indeed, rather than the second-half recovery originally expected last year, the credit crisis intensified, massive layoffs ensued, and by year-end the global economy was mired in its worst downturn since the Great Depression.

Yet even as the extent of the damage became clear, many economists, chief executives and investors have maintained that this year, conditions will improve in the second half and the recession (which began in December 2007) will finally draw to an end.

Today - July 1 - begins the second half of 2009. So is the recovery at hand?

The signs of improvement certainly are: home sales and prices are slowing their free-fall, jobless claims remain below their late-March record highs, gauges of business investment have risen, consumer confidence is on the rebound, and financial markets have steadied. The idea that the U.S. could swing toward GDP growth in the third or fourth quarter no longer seems like a pipe dream.

But last year held similar promise: after the collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns in mid-March and its quickie sale to J.P. Morgan, there was a period of relative calm through the early summer months. That optimism wound up being short-lived; it remains to be seen whether the second half of 2009 will also prove to be a grim reality check.

【中文译文】

大多数预测人士似乎都认为经济增长将在未来几个季度持续疲软，但会在2008年下半年回升到趋势水平──雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)研究报告，2007年12月12日。

目前这场上世纪三十年代以来幅度最深、时间最长的经济衰退将在2009年下半年结束──富国银行(Wells Fargo)新闻稿，2008年12月19日

关于下半年经济复苏的说法已经成为了这场经济衰退迄今的一个共同主题，这只说明了预测人士严重低估了此次经济衰退。实际上，经济非但没有像原先设想的那样在去年下半年实现复苏，信贷危机反而进一步加剧，导致大量人员失业，年底前全球经济陷入了大萧条以来最为严重的下滑。

但即便问题变得日益明显，诸多经济学家、首席执行长和投资者仍然认定，今年下半年情况将有所好转，始于2007年12月的经济衰退将最终走向终结。

现在2009年下半年已经拉开了帷幕。那么经济复苏又如何呢？

状况好转的迹象显然已经浮现：住房销量和价格已经延缓了急剧下跌的步伐，申请失业救济人数仍然低于3月底创下的历史高点，商业投资的指标已经上扬，消费者信心正在回升，金融市场已经持稳。关于美国经济有望在第三或者第四季度重新增长的说法已经不再看上去像是白日梦。

但去年也曾出现过类似的状况：投资银行贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns) 3月底崩溃并迅速出售给摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)之后，市场也曾出现一段相对平静的时期，一直持续到夏季初。这种乐观情绪没能维持多久。今年下半年是否也会是个残酷的考验，这还有待时间来验证。

【词汇讲解】

1. rebound vi. 弹回；反弹

The ball rebounded from his racket into the net.
球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

2. underscore vt. 划线于……下，强调

to underscore(written matter) with a single line to indicate italics
在（写的东西）下画横线来表示印刷时用斜体字

3. grim adj. 严酷的，无情的

His expression was grim when he told them they had lost their jobs.
当他告诉他们说他们已被解雇时, 他的表情十分冷酷。

【词组讲解】

on the rebound (从地上、墙上等)弹回之际或之后

He is still on the rebound from his wife's death.
他仍处在失去妻子的情绪波动之中。