泰国倒戈少将成红衫军中坚力量
【英文原文】
Thai Leader Offers Vote In Risky Move
Thailand's army leaders made an enemy when they assigned Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol to lead aerobics-dance classes in Bangkok's public markets a couple of years ago.
Today, Maj. Gen. Khattiya is a renegade operating among the Red Shirt protesters in Bangkok's streets, and his increasingly militant followers illustrate the risks the government faces if it fails to secure a political deal to end the eight-week crisis.
Protest leaders Tuesday appeared close to agreeing to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's latest offer to hold elections on Nov. 14 in exchange for calling off the debilitating protests, which have crippled Bangkok's main shopping district for weeks and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Thaksin Shinawatra, the fugitive former prime minister ousted in a 2006 military coup who is a driving force behind Red Shirt protests, said in a phone call to supporters Tuesday that prospects for reconciliation were good.
Rally organizers, however, said they were waiting for proof of the government's sincerity, and questioned the proposed election date. 'We want to see the government commit to a dissolution,' said Nattawut Saikua, one of the main protest leaders. 'It's in the government's hands now.'
Thai stock-market prices soared on news that the Red Shirts were considering the election offer. The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index rose 4.4% to close at 796.86 points.
But if the offer is rejected amid disputes over the polling date, political analysts say tensions could deteriorate further -- and open the way for hard-liners to determine what happens next.
One such hard-liner is Maj. Gen. Khattiya, better known as 'Seh Daeng,' or, roughly, 'Commander Red.' His followers represent a volatile splinter group in the protesters' push to replace a bureaucratic establishment with a populist, rural-dominated government. Some independent analysts say Maj. Gen. Khattiya's growing influence over such militant members of the broader Red Shirt movement could lead to bloodshed.
The major general on Tuesday scoffed at the prime minister's latest offer. 'He's trying to trick the protest leaders into stepping down, but the protesters want to stay,' he said. 'It's just a plan to buy time and push up stock prices.'
The major general, suspended from duty in 2008 for visiting Mr. Thaksin overseas without permission, was once a rising star in Thailand's armed forces, trained in fighting antigovernment forces. He earned his reputation as a maverick fighting Communist insurgents in near the border with Laos in the 1970s and Muslim rebels in the south. He scorns what he calls his superiors' fondness for golf, which he considers soft, and promotes himself as a Thai-style Rambo in a series of books he has written about his exploits in the field.
【中文译文】
数年前，泰国军方领导人指派少将卡蒂亚(Khattiya Sawasdipol)到曼谷公共市场去给有氧操健身课程带队，结果给自己树立了一个敌人。
今天，卡蒂亚已然倒戈，加入了曼谷街头的红衫军当中，而他在军方的支持者也越来越多。这让人们看到，政府如果不能达成政治协议结束这场长达八个星期的危机，它会面临怎样的风险。
周二，示威领袖们似乎已经接近同意总理阿披实(Abhisit Vejjajiva)的最新提议，即在11月14日举行大选，并以此作为取消示威活动的交换条件。示威活动对曼谷的主要购物区造成了数周的干扰，并带来数亿美元的损失。流亡他国的前总理他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)周二致电支持者说，达成调解的希望是很大的。他信在2006年的一次军事政变中下台，是红衫军示威活动背后的一个推动力量。
但集会组织者说他们在等待政府展现诚意，并对阿披实建议的选举日期提出了质疑。示威活动的主要领袖之一纳塔兀(Nattawut Saikua)说，我们希望看到政府自我解散的决心，现在就看政府的了。
受红衫军考虑阿披实提议的消息提振，泰国股市飙升。泰国证券交易所指数(Stock Exchange of Thailand Index)收于796.86点，上涨4.4%。
但多位分析人士称，如果阿披实的提议因选举日期方面的争议而遭到拒绝，双方关系可能会进一步恶化，然后可能就是由强硬派来决定下一步将会发生什么。
强硬派之一就是卡蒂亚，他更为人知的名字是社登(Seh Daeng)，大意是“红色司令官”。示威者推动建立一个民粹化的、以农村为主的政府，以取代官僚政府，而卡蒂亚的追随着属于这一过程中一个不稳定的小派别。一些局外分析人士认为，卡蒂亚对于红衫军运动中这些军方成员的影响力日益渐长，可能会导致流血事件的发生。
对阿披实最近的提议，卡蒂亚嘲笑对待。他说，阿披实是在诱使示威领袖减弱示威活动，但示威者希望留下来；这不过是一个缓兵之际，一个提振股市的计划。
卡蒂亚于2008年被停职，原因是未经允许到海外探访了他信。他曾是泰国武装力量中的一个新星，在打击反政府武装的过程中得到历炼。上世纪70年代打击老挝边境的共产党叛军和南部穆斯林判乱分子的过程中，卡蒂亚因其特立独行而为人所知。他说他的上级爱好高尔夫，并嘲笑这种爱好为软弱的表现。在数本描绘自己战功的著作中，他把自己宣传为一个泰国版的兰博(Rambo)。
