联军空袭未能削弱ISIS财力

A year of bombing, more than 10,600 strikes and a coalition of more than 60 countries have failed to make a significant dent in Isis’s war chest, with revenues from Oil, its main source of income, generating as much as $500m a year.

一年的轰炸，超过10600次攻击，加上一支由60多个国家组成的联军，始终没能对“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的战争金库造成重创，因为ISIS每年的石油收入高达5亿美元。石油是ISIS的主要收入来源。

Production figures from workers at oilfields, checked against western intelligence estimates, indicates as much as 34,000-40,000 barrels a day are being produced in Isis-controlled territory, generating up to $1.53m a day.

来自油田工人的生产数据（对照西方的情报估计之后）显示，在ISIS控制的区域，每日石油产量为3.4万至4万桶，每日创收最高达153万美元。

In a striking admission of failure in the US-led fight against Isis, senior western diplomats and intelligence officials say a recent reassessment of the jihadis’ financial strength suggests it has yet to be depleted in a way that hampers their operations.

西方高级外交官和情报官表示，近来对圣战分子财力的重估显示，他们并未被削弱到作战行动受限的地步。对美国领导的对ISIS的打击来说，这是一次引人注目的承认失败。

It is a finding corroborated in dozens of interviews with people in Syria and Iraq involved with the Isis moneymaking machine, as part of an investigation by the Financial Times. Isis income from oil exceeds revenue from other sources such as taxation, extortion and the trade in stolen antiquities.

这一结论得到英国《金融时报》一项调查中数十次采访的证实。英国《金融时报》采访了叙利亚和伊拉克境内与ISIS赚钱机器相关的人士。ISIS的石油收入超过了来自税收、勒索和买卖盗窃文物等其他途径的收入。

Senior figures in the US-led coalition battling Isis, in Europe, the Middle East and Washington, say it has adapted its operations to air strikes and runs its trade network with impunity, siphoning millions from oil wells as if it were a national oil company. “This year, we calculated they made $40m [from oil] in just one month,” said a US official. “That is even after the air strikes.”

联军、欧洲、中东和华盛顿方面的高官表示，ISIS已针对空袭调整了作战方式，并经营着逍遥法外的贸易网，从油井中攫取了巨款，仿佛自己是一家国家石油公司。“今年，我们估计他们一个月就能（从石油中）赚到4000万美元，”一名美国官员表示，“即便在空袭之后也是如此。”

The resilience of Isis’s oil business in the face of a coalition bombing campaign that has repeatedly targeted the group’s refineries and pipelines underlines the challenge its adversaries face in dislodging it from power.

在联军对ISIS的炼油厂和石油管道连番轰炸之后，ISIS的石油生意仍然活跃，这凸显了其对手在削弱其实力时面临的挑战。

It is a contrast to the success the US and its allies enjoyed in degrading the financial clout of al-Qaeda in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Unlike its rival, Isis can generate most of the money it needs from within its borders and does not depend on covert foreign fundraising.

这与“九一一”事件后美国及其盟国在削弱基地组织(al-Qaeda)财力时取得的成功形成了反差。跟基地组织不同的是，ISIS能从控制区域内产生所需的多数资金，而且并不依赖秘密的外部筹款。

Oil is now refined in hundreds of small makeshift facilities, locals close to the Syrian fields say, and in some cases is simply burnt in open pits. “We haven’t been as disruptive in their oil revenues as we may have hoped,” said a senior European intelligence official. “They are able to effect repairs to everything we have hit.”

接近叙利亚油田的当地人表示，石油如今是通过数百个小型临时设施炼制出来的，有些情况下，原油就在露天矿坑里烧。“我们没能像预想那样破坏他们的石油收入，”一名欧洲高级情报官表示，“无论我们摧毁什么，他们都能有效地修复。”

Many of the dozens of remaining facilities are operated by local people unaffiliated to the terrorist group. The truckers who move crude oil and refined products around Isis territory — whose convoys are often visible from the air — are also not necessarily Isis members, in a dilemma for military planners. “The transport system [for oil] is indistinguishable from other regular trucks,” said one senior western diplomat. “So we can’t bomb them.”

在数十处保留下来的设施中，有很多处的经营者是不隶属于ISIS恐怖组织的当地人。在ISIS控制区内各处运送原油和成品油的卡车司机——从空中经常可以看到他们的车队——未必是ISIS的成员，这让军事策划人员左右两难。“（石油）运输系统跟其他常规卡车难以区分，”一名西方高级外交官表示，“所以我们不能对它们实施轰炸。”

“You kill the driver, you get a family of jihadis,” he said. “You run the risk of radicalising the population.”

“你炸死了司机，就把他全家人都变成了圣战分子。”他说，“你面临着把所有人都变成激进分子的风险。”

Interrupting the flow of oil across Isis borders has had limited effect. There is still a huge domestic market over which Isis holds a monopoly. “They are generating an awful lot of money internally,” said the US official.

切断ISIS跨境石油流动产生的效果有限。ISIS境内仍有很大的市场，而ISIS在其中享有垄断地位。“他们在境内赚到了大量的收入，”这位美国官员表示。

Among options considered by the coalition are supplying oil at cheaper prices to non-Isis groups in Syria or flooding the northern Iraqi market with cheap crude to undercut the jihadis.

联军考虑的选项包括，以更低价格向叙利亚境内的非ISIS组织供应石油，或者向伊拉克北部市场大举供应廉价原油，与圣战分子打价格战。

Western diplomats and intelligence officials are confident Isis’s finances will reach a “pinch point” — though when is still unclear.

西方外交官和情报官员相信，ISIS的财力会有拮据的那一刻——尽管那一刻何时到来还不知道。

“A year ago I would have hoped it would have been about now,” said the senior intelligence official. “But we have reassessed. They are still in a better place. They still also have a large amount of residual reserves and cash.”

“一年前，我会认为今天大概就是那一刻，”上述高级情报官表示。“但我们进行了重估。他们的处境仍好于我们的预期。他们也仍拥有大量的剩余储备和现金。”