蔡英文的政治蜜月不会太长
Tsai Ing-wen will become the most powerful woman in the Chinese world when she is sworn in as Taiwan’s president on Friday but she will not have much time to toast her historic achievement.
蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)在本周五（5月20日）宣誓就任台湾总统后，将成为华人世界权力最大的女性，但她不会有太多时间来庆贺自己的历史性成就。
The cat-loving former law professor faces a daunting to-do list, managing relations with a hostile Beijing government while attempting to revive an economy in recession and assuage hardliners in her party who want Taiwan to push for formal independence.
这位爱猫的前法学教授面临着一份艰巨的待办事项列表，她需要处理好与不友好的北京方面的关系，试图重振处于衰退中的经济，同时控制住她所在政党内部想要推动台湾正式独立的强硬派。
Beijing claims the self-governing, democratic island as one of its provinces and is deeply suspicious of Ms Tsai’s Democratic Progressive party, which won presidential and legislative elections in January after vowing to reduce Taiwan’s reliance on China and boost economic growth.
北京方面宣称这个自治、民主的岛屿是中国的一个省份，对蔡英文所属的民进党(DPP)抱有深切疑虑。民进党以降低台湾对中国大陆的依赖和促进经济增长为竞选纲领，在今年1月赢得总统和立法院选举。
In the four months since the elections, China has shown its displeasure with the DPP’s unprecedented double victory by resuming a battle with Taiwan for diplomatic allies and curbing the number of tourists travelling to the island.
在台湾举行选举后的四个月里，中国大陆对民进党获得前所未有的双重胜利表现出不满，再度与台湾争夺外交盟友，并减少赴台游客数量。
“The biggest challenge Ms Tsai faces is preserving a positive relationship with the mainland, which is inextricably linked to the domestic agenda of revitalising the economy,” said Bonnie Glaser, an expert on Taiwan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank. “If she does not have good ties with China, China is likely to pursue Taiwan in ways that will have a detrimental effect on the economy.”
“蔡英文面临的最大挑战是保持与大陆的积极关系，这与重振经济的岛内议程有着千丝万缕的联系，”华盛顿智库——战略与国际问题研究中心(CSIS)的台湾问题专家葛莱仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示。“如果她不能同中国大陆建立良好关系，大陆很可能以不利于台湾经济的方式来对付台湾。”
The economy has shrunk for three consecutive quarters as Taiwan’s electronics companies and other manufacturers have suffered from the slowdown in neighbouring China, its biggest export market, and weak global demand.
台湾经济已连续三个季度萎缩，其电子企业和其他制造商受到邻近的中国大陆经济放缓乃至全球需求疲软的影响；中国大陆是台湾最大的出口市场。
In addition to the short-term contraction, Taiwan also faces a deeper malaise with graduate starting salaries having stagnated for years despite sharp rises in housing and other living costs.
除了短期的收缩外，台湾还面临着更深层次的低迷，岛内的毕业生起薪已停滞多年，尽管住房和其他生活费用大幅上涨。
Lin Shao-hung studied tourism at university and hoped to become a management trainee in the hospitality industry.
林少鸿（音，Lin Shao-hung）在大学读的是旅游专业，那时他希望成为酒店业的管理培训生。
But, like many young Taiwanese, the 24-year-old has found it difficult to find a good job and ended up working in the housekeeping department at a Taipei hotel for two years.
但是，像许多台湾青年一样，现年24岁的他发现很难找到一份好工作，结果在台北某家酒店的客房部打了两年工。
“I hope it will get better under Tsai,” he said, echoing the view of many of the young voters who helped sweep her into office.
“我希望在蔡英文领导下形势会变好，”他表示。这话呼应了帮助把蔡英文选上台的很多年轻选民的观点。
The conundrum for the new president, who studied law at the London School of Economics, is that she is under pressure from DPP supporters to boost growth while keeping a distance from China.
曾在伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics)学习法律的新总统面临的难题是，她受到民进党支持者的压力，要提振经济增长，而同时又要与中国大陆保持一定距离。
Analysts say that if she fails to keep Beijing onside, the Chinese government is likely to create further economic difficulties for Taiwan by reducing trade, investment and tourism, as well as leaning on other countries to reject trade talks with the island.
分析人士表示，如果她未能争取到北京方面的配合，中国大陆政府很可能会通过减少贸易、投资和赴台旅游人数，给台湾制造进一步的经济困难，同时施压其他国家拒绝与台湾展开贸易谈判。
Beijing will be paying close attention to the language on cross-strait relations in her inauguration speech but that is just the beginning of what will be a very delicate balancing act.
北京方面将密切关注蔡英文就职演说中涉及两岸关系的措辞，但这将只是一种非常微妙的平衡把握的开端。
“Ms Tsai has a significant political mandate and a lot of political capital but her honeymoon may be very short,” said Ms Glaser.
“蔡英文拥有可观的政治授权和大量的政治资本，但她的蜜月期可能很短，”葛莱仪表示。
