特朗普能够撑多久

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. The question is how long that will take with Donald Trump. It is little use speculating about the next four years. Just multiply Mr Trump’s first four weeks and ask how long America’s system can take the strain.

如果有些事无法永远继续的话，它就会停止。问题是唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)能够撑多久。对接下来的四年作猜测没什么意义。就以特朗普上任的头四周为基础做乘法，再问问美国体系还能承压多久吧。

In his first month Mr Trump has declared war on the intelligence agencies and the media. It looks like the judicial branch is next on his list of enemies. There is no middle ground in Mr Trump’s Washington. Either the forces that are against the president will bring him down or he will destroy the system. My bet is on the first. But I would not stake my life on it.

在上任头一个月，特朗普对情报部门和媒体宣战。司法部门似乎是他列出的下一个敌人。在特朗普领导的华盛顿，没有中间地带。要么是反对他的力量把他赶下台，要么是他摧毁这个体系。我打赌是第一种，但我不会用性命做赌注。

Do not be reassured by Mr Trump’s cabinet. Many of them are experienced individuals. James Mattis, the secretary of defence, Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, and Steven Mnuchin, the nominee for Treasury secretary, are professionals. We may dispute their priorities but we have no basis to contest their hold on reality.

不要对特朗普的内阁放心。其中很多人经验丰富。国防部长詹姆斯?马蒂斯(James Mattis)、国务卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)和财政部长史蒂文?姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)都是专业人士。我们可能会质疑他们的优先任务，但我们没有理由质疑他们对现实的把控。

Even Kellyanne Conway, and Sean Spicer — Mr Trump’s controversial adviser and press secretary — would probably look fine if they were working for a different president. Mr Trump could populate his administration with America’s most diligent public servants and it would not change the most important thing. They would still be required to execute the orders of a man who divides the world into friends and enemies — and nothing in between.

甚至连备受争议的特朗普顾问凯莉安妮?康韦(Kellyanne Conway)和新闻秘书肖恩?斯派塞(Sean Spicer)都可能看上去不错——如果他们是为别的某位总统工作的话。特朗普可以用美国最勤恳的公务员填充他的政府，但这不会改变最重要的事情。他们还是得执行这位将世界划分为朋友和敌人——没有中间地带——的总统的命令。

Robert Harward, the ex-navy Seal who turned down the job to serve as Mr Trump’s national security adviser, is a harbinger of things to come. In any normal circumstance, someone of Mr Harward’s background would have leapt at the honour of such a high position. But Mr Harward could not stomach the prospect.

前海军海豹突击队队员罗伯特?哈沃德(Robert Harward)拒绝了担任特朗普国家安全顾问的邀请，这是一个预兆。通常情况下，具备哈沃德这种背景的人会欣然接受这一高职。但哈沃德却不能接受这种未来。

It would have meant serving a president who thinks he knows more than his generals about war, more than his spies do about intelligence and more than his diplomats do about the world. The only people with whom Mr Trump agrees are those who agree with him. It is an open question how long it will take for Mr Trump’s existing appointees to reach the same conclusion. There is a thin line between doing your duty and being humiliated.

如果接受，那将意味着侍奉一位自以为比他的将军们更懂战争，比他的间谍们更懂情报，比他的外交官们更懂世界的总统。特朗普唯一认同的人是那些认同他的人。特朗普目前已经任命的人将花多长时间得出这一结论仍是一个未知数。尽职与蒙受羞辱之间的界限很难区分。

The US intelligence agencies already appear to have crossed that line. No fewer than nine intelligence sources leaked details of Michael Flynn’s phone call with the Russian ambassador to the Washington Post. Some of this was surely revenge for the contempt Mr Flynn dealt out to intelligence agents, who coined the term “Flynn facts” when he was head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. But some of it was motivated by deep alarm about a president who is so cavalier with US national security.

美国情报机构似乎已越过这一界限。不少于9个情报来源向《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)泄露了迈克尔?弗林(Michael Flynn)与俄罗斯大使的电话通话细节。其中一些显然是对弗林轻视情报间谍人员的报复，在他担任国防情报局(Defense Intelligence Agency)局长时，间谍人员曾造出“弗林事实”(Flynn facts)一词。但其中一些是因为对这位对美国国家安全毫不在乎的总统感到严重恐慌。

Mr Trump has likened the Central Intelligence Agency to Nazi Germany and accused it of working for Hillary Clinton. In contrast, he has nothing but praise for James Comey, head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, whose last minute intervention helped to tip the election Mr Trump’s way.

特朗普将中情局(CIA)比作纳粹德国，并指责中情局为希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)工作。相比之下，他却对联邦调查局(FBI)局长詹姆斯?科米(James Comey)称赞有加，科米在最后一刻的干预，曾帮助美国总统大选朝着有利于特朗普的方向发展。

The message is clear: be like Mr Comey or be treated as the enemy. It is hard to imagine there are many public servants who see Mr Comey as a role model. Some of them risk their lives at relatively low pay to serve their country. Mr Trump is not their country.

这其中的信息很清楚：你或是选择像科米一样，或是选择被视为敌人。很难想象会有许多公务员将科米视为榜样。其中一些人冒着生命危险，领着相对微薄的工资，服务他们的国家。而特朗普不是他们的国家。

Then there is the lying media — or the “Lügenpresse” as Mr Trump’s alt-right supporters say in echo of the Nazi slur. On Thursday Mr Trump subjected the media to an 80-minute diatribe disguised as a press conference in which he accused them of dishonesty, peddling “very fake news” and conspiracy to undermine his presidency.

然后是“说谎的媒体”——特朗普的极右翼支持者用纳粹时代诋毁用语“Lügenpresse”（译注：意为说谎的媒体）来指称媒体。上周四，特朗普打着新闻发布会的幌子，让媒体遭受了80分钟的“狂轰滥炸”，他指责媒体不诚实，散布“非常虚假的新闻”并且密谋破坏他的执政。

His next logical step is to accuse the media of treason. In a tweet he later deleted Mr Trump called the media an “enemy of the American people”. This cannot end well. Anonymous death threats have become a normal way of life for many journalists in Washington. I fear it is only a matter of time before this results in violence. The same applies to the judiciary. The judges who shot down Mr Trump’s “Muslim ban” earlier this month are also receiving death threats.

合乎他本人逻辑的下一步，是指责媒体叛国。特朗普曾发布一条Twitter帖子，称媒体是“美国人民的敌人”，后来他删除了这条帖子（后来特朗普把这条帖子修改后又重新发出，但仍然保留了称媒体是“美国人民的敌人”的内容——编者注）。这事不会善了。对于华盛顿的许多记者而言，匿名的死亡威胁已经是家常便饭。我担心，或早或晚，这最终将导致暴力。司法机构的境况也是如此。本月早些时候叫停特朗普“穆斯林禁令”的法官们也收到了死亡威胁。

Where does this end? Panglossian types cling to the hope that Mr Trump will make a course correction. In this happy development, he would clear the White House of firebrands, such as his close advisers Stephen Bannon and Stephen Miller, and replace them with seasoned operators.

这一切的终点在哪里？过分乐观的人坚持怀抱特朗普将修正路线的希望。如果事态照这种乐观的情形发展，特朗普将清除白宫中挑起争端的人士，比如他的亲密顾问斯蒂芬?班农(Stephen Bannon)和斯蒂芬?米勒(Stephen Miller)，并且用经验丰富的人士代替他们。

Such a purge is possible at some point. It may even be likely. Few advisers can long survive proximity to the white heat of a demagogue. Unless Mr Trump replaced himself, the siege would go on.

这样的清洗在某些时刻是可能的。甚至还很有可能。少有顾问能够近距离接触一个煽动家的狂热并且长期幸免于难。除非特朗普找人替换自己，否则这种围攻还会持续下去。

Nor can we bank on a personality transplant. Mr Trump could spend 95 per cent of his time taking the advice of experts and 5 per cent going against it. That 5 per cent would still drive the agenda. But Mr Trump is not a reformable character. The more besieged he becomes, the more he lashes out. He is now vowing an investigation into leaks and an implied purge of disloyal officers.

我们也不能指望性格转变。特朗普可能会花95%的时间听取专家的建议，花5%的时间反对这些建议。这5%依然将推动议程。但特朗普不是一个可以改变的人物。他越是被围攻，越是会出手反击。现在特朗普誓言对泄露事件进行调查，并且暗示将清除不忠诚的官员。

It is hard to predict how long it would take to resolve the battle between Mr Trump and the so-called deep state. It is also hard to say how long a Republican Congress could stand the heat. As I say, multiply the past four weeks by three, or six, or nine. The neutral ground will vanish. At some point this will boil down to a choice between Mr Trump and the US constitution.

很难预测，要解决特朗普和所谓的国家深层势力之间的斗争需要多长时间。也很难说由共和党主导的国会能够在围攻之下坚持多长时间。我的观点是，将过去的4周乘以3，或者6，或者9。中间地带将会消失。在某个时刻上，这将归结于选择特朗普还是选择美国宪法。