经济广角:并购市场的衰退结束了吗?

Is the M&A Recession Really Over?
Has the M&A market finally hit bottom?

For two years, deal makers have been searching for signs of that bottom. And for two years, merger activity has kept going down. Even as the economy and the stock and credit markets showed signs of improvement this summer, the M&A market remained a laggard.

And yet lately, there have been signs of life. Since Aug. 31, corporate buyers have announced a spate of big, brand-name deals, such as Walt Disney's $4 billion acquisition of Marvel Entertainment; Kraft Foods's $16.73 billion takeover offer for Cadbury; and Dell's $3.9 billion deal to purchase Perot Systems.

So, have we seen the bottom? The answer seems to be at least a qualified yes. M&A has hit its cyclical trough and is starting a slow slog back up. That certainly was the take of Mr. Market on Monday.

'These deals are a strong, bullish sign for the market,' said Howard Lanser, a director at Robert W. Baird. 'These are game changing, strategic transactions by the CEOs of these companies. The CEOs are showing confidence and are taking a longer term view.' But Lanser cautions that M&A activity needs to be broader across more industries for a more robust recovery. In the near term, deal volume is likely to remain depressed, just not at levels seen in July and August.

A look at September's numbers lends support to that outlook. The dollar volume of world-wide and U.S. deals jumped significantly from August, up 58% and 79%, respectively. Yet the number of announced deals is less encouraging, with September likely to be flat with August. And while deal volume is up from August, September still marks the 12th straight month of year-over-year declines, according to Dealogic.

One reason is that, although corporate buyers increasingly feel the worst is behind them, they still don't have a feel for the market. Buyers are concerned that they will be buying into a false uptick, while sellers remain concerned that they are selling too low. That may be keeping a number of would-be buyers on the sidelines.

But given the struggles of the M&A market, the positives are finally outweighing the negatives and, more importantly, confidence is coming back.

并购市场终于触底了吗？

两年以来，交易缔造者们一直在搜寻市场触底的迹象。两年来，并购活动持续下滑。即便今年夏天经济、股市和信贷市场都显现出回升迹象的时候，并购市场仍然止步不前。

但这个市场最近显现了复苏迹象。自8月31日以来，企业收购方宣布了一系列重大收购交易，例如迪士尼(Walt Disney)斥资40亿美元收购Marvel Entertainment，卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)向吉百利(Cadbury)提出167.3亿美元收购要约，以及戴尔(Dell)支付39亿美元收购Perot Systems。

那么，市场触底了吗？这个问题似乎至少得到了有条件的肯定答案。并购市场已经触及了周期性底部，正开始缓慢回升。这肯定是市场周一的看法。

券商Robert W. Baird董事兰瑟(Howard Lanser)表示，这些交易是市场回升的一个强劲利好迹象。这些公司的首席执行长们进行了改变行业的战略交易。他们表现出了信心，抱有更长远的眼光。但兰瑟警告称，并购活动要更广泛地出现在更多行业才算是强劲复苏。近期而言，交易量可能仍然会低迷不振，只是不像7月和8月那么低而已。

9月份的数据分析支持了这一预期。当月全球和美国并购交易以美元计算的金额较8月份分别暴涨了58%和79%。但9月份宣布的交易数量不太令人振奋，可能与8月份持平。Dealogic的数据显示，尽管9月份并购交易额高于8月份，但仍然连续第12个月出现同比下滑。

其中一个原因是，尽管企业收购方日益感觉到他们已经度过了最糟糕的阶段，但他们仍然对市场缺乏感觉。收购方担心他们会被虚假的市场上升所蒙蔽，而出售方仍然担心他们售价过低了。这种状况可能正令诸多潜在收购方决定继续观望。

但考虑到并购市场此前的困难状况，积极因素最终压过了负面因素，更为重要的是，市场信心正在回归。