香港房价不惧"占中"继续上涨
ISISDespite slowing growth, street protests and the prospect of higher interest rates, Hong Kong property prices – already the world’s highest – are continuing to rip even higher.
虽然经济增速放缓、游行示威加上利率可能上调，但香港房地产价格仍在持续走高，目前香港的地产价格已经居于全球最高位。Average prices, as measured by local agency Centaline, clocked up a fresh record in October, presenting another challenge to the Hong Kong government, which is also facing a mass civil disobedience campaign now into its second month.
据香港的中原地产代理公司(Centaline)计算，香港10月平均房价触及新的记录，这向香港政府提出了新的挑战。目前香港的大规模“公民不服从”(civil disobedience)运动进入第二个月，港府还忙于应对。
Despite the protests, which have shut down major highways across the city’s main business districts, new developments have continued to attract strong interest. When sales began last month at Pavilia Hills, a new luxury development, demand was such that a raffle had to be held simply for the right to put down a deposit.
尽管抗议活动持续，导致香港主要商业地区的主干道关闭，但人们对新的开发项目兴趣并未减退。当新的豪宅项目Pavilia Hills上月开盘时，需求旺盛，以至于开发商不得不抽奖，只为让购房者赢得交付订金的权利。
The first round of apartments – the cheapest of which carried an asking price of more than US$2M – sold out within hours.
首批住宅在几个小时内售罄，这些是该项目中价格最低的一批，单套售价超过200万美元。The strength of the property market poses a serious challenge to Hong Kong’s embattled government as many people struggle to find affordable housing. Average home prices are now 14.9 times median household income, according to research from Demographia, compared to 7.3 in London.
房地产市场的强势给本已陷入困境的港府提出了一项严峻挑战，因为很多香港人现在根本买得起住房。根据Demographia的研究，香港平均房价为家庭收入中值的14.9倍，而伦敦为7.3倍。Prices have more than doubled since 2008 fuelled by record low interest rates, imported from the US; a buoyant economy, and interest from mainland Chinese buyers.
自2008年以来，香港房价已上涨逾一倍，原因既有美国创纪录的低利率的影响，也因香港富有活力的经济以及中国内地买家的兴趣。In a city suffering from worsening inequality, sky-high home prices are a key political issue. CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, acknowledged in a recent interview that the cost of housing was a “major concern” and one that the government must “do more” to fix.
在一个不平等程度日益加深的城市，房价高企是一个关键的政治问题。香港特首梁振英(CY Leung)在最近的一次采访中承认，房价是一个“重大问题”，政府必须“采取更多措施”解决这个问题。“Poll after poll has shown that the one issue that’s uppermost on the minds of the people, particularly the younger generation, is the cost of housing,” said Mr Leung, himself a former developer. “The shortage of housing has worsened to such an extent that some young married couples live apart. It is not acceptable.”
“接二连三的调查都显示，民众、尤其更年轻一代民众最关心的问题就是房价，”原本也是房地产开发商的梁振英说。“住房不足状况已恶化到有些已婚夫妇不能住在一起的地步。这是让人无法接受的。”He also admitted that cooling measures – such as tighter lending requirements and increased stamp duty – had proved only “temporarily effective”.
他也承认，冷却楼市的措施——比如收紧贷款要求和提高印花税——均被证明只有“暂时效果”。The end of quantitative easing in the US could also act as a dampener by raising borrowing costs.
美国量化宽松落下帷幕，也可能提高融资成本，成为打压房价的一个因素。Though evidence so far is scant, the social unrest in Hong Kong may yet dent sentiment too. Citi recently cut its economic growth forecast for this year and next because of the drag on tourism and retail sales stemming from the protests.
尽管迄今证据很不充分，但香港社会动荡可能打击市场信心。花旗(Citi)不久前下调了香港今明两年的经济增长预测，原因在于抗议活动拖累了旅游业和零售销售额。Yet many property analysts remain unmoved, believing that any correction in prices remains a long way off.
不过，许多房地产分析师仍不为所动，认为香港房价调整仍是很遥远的事。“The reality is that interest rates will remain low, and supply will remain constrained. Uncertainty in other parts of the world will persist, and I think that will act to support values,“ said Simon Smith, head of Asia research at Savills.
“现实是，利率仍将保持在低水平，供应仍将趋紧。世界其他地区的不确定性仍不会消失，我觉得这将对香港房价起到支撑作用。”第一太平戴维斯(Savills)的亚洲研究主管西蒙•史密斯(Simon Smith)说。
