孙正义的秘密赌局 软银收购ARM的前前后后

The calm of Stuart Chambers’ sailing holiday off the Turkish coast was shattered this month when Masayoshi Sonflew in with an armed escort and an offer for Arm Holdings, the UK’s pre-eminent technology company.

斯图尔特•钱伯斯(Stuart Chambers)在土耳其海岸外平静的航海假期被一个人打断了——这个人就是孙正义(Masayoshi Son)，他在武装护卫的陪同下找到了钱伯斯，还带来了对英国知名科技公司ARM控股(Arm Holdings)的收购要约。

The charismatic SoftBank founder, who built the Japanese company into a global telecoms and internet conglomerate, had come to meet Arm’s chairman in Marmaris, the seaside resort from which Turkey’s president fled on Friday to face down an attempted coup.

富有魅力的孙正义是软银(SoftBank)创始人，他将这家日本公司打造成了跨国电信及互联网企业集团。为见到ARM董事长钱伯斯，孙正义来到了土耳其海滨度假胜地马尔马里斯(Marmaris)——土耳其总统上周五正是从这里仓皇离开，去处理一场政变图谋。

Mr Son flew in by private jet, accompanied by his security detail because of the earlier terrorist attack on Istanbul airport. As they sat beside the glistening Mediterranean on July 3, Mr Chambers was unprepared for him to deliver a formal takeover offer.

由于不久前伊斯坦布尔机场遭到了恐怖袭击，孙正义在安保人员的陪同下搭乘私人飞机而来。7月3日，当他们坐在波光闪闪的地中海之滨时，钱伯斯毫无防备地收到了孙正义提出的正式收购要约。

What started over a long lunch at the waterfront Pineapple Restaurant resulted in victory for Mr Son just 13 days later, when the 58-year-old arrived in London on Monday to reveal the friendly ￡24.3bn all-cash deal for Cambridge-based Arm.

始于海滨Pineapple餐厅一顿耗时很长的午餐换来了孙正义13天后的胜利。本周一抵达伦敦时，58岁的孙正义公布了以全现金243亿英镑对总部位于剑桥的ARM进行友好收购的协议。

It would be the biggest Asian takeover of a British company, the largest European tech deal to date and Mr Son’s biggest acquisition since he founded SoftBank in 1981.

这笔交易将是亚洲对英国企业规模最大的一笔收购，是欧洲迄今最大的一笔科技交易，也是孙正义自1981年创立软银以来进行的最大一笔收购。

Mr Son had called the UK’s prime minister, Theresa May, and chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond, a day earlier, to ensure that the British government would not present any obstacles. He laid out a series of intentions, agreed during the breakneck negotiations, including a legally binding commitment to double the size of Arm’s UK workforce.

孙正义在交易宣布前一天曾致电英国首相特里萨•梅(Theresa May)及财政大臣菲利普•哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)，以确保英国政府不会设置任何障碍。他列出了一系列打算（已在一系列闪电谈判中达成一致），包括一项具有法律约束力的承诺——将ARM在英国的就业岗位扩大一倍。

Mr Son had been plotting the biggest bet of his career for some time, telling the Financial Times in an interview that he had admired Arm for years. More than 15bn chips are shipped with its designs annually and Arm already dominates the smartphone market. Mr Son, a self-confident tech evangelist, sees it playing a crucial role in the next big wave in technology, the so-called internet of things.

孙正义策划职业生涯这次最大的赌博已有一段时间，他曾在一次采访中对英国《金融时报》表示，自己对ARM倾慕已久。采用ARM设计的芯片每年出货量达150亿枚，该公司已主导了智能手机市场。自信的科技布道者孙正义认为，ARM将在下一波科技大潮（所谓物联网）中发挥至关重要的作用。

“Every street light will be interconnected to the internet because we can save when [a] car is not passing,” Mr Son said at the Four Seasons hotel near London’s Hyde Park. “Automobiles will all be connected so driverless car[s will be] much safer. All things will be connected and what is the biggest common denominator? That is Arm.”

在伦敦海德公园(Hyde Park)附近的四季酒店(Four Seasons)里，孙正义表示：“每一盏路灯都将与互联网相连，没有车经过时可以省电。所有汽车都将实现互联，无人驾驶汽车（将）安全得多。万物都将互联互通，那最大公约数是什么？就是ARM。”

Mr Son had considered an Arm deal even before he bought US mobile carrier Sprint in 2012. That $20bn acquisition became a blemish on an otherwise impressive dealmaking record, after US regulators blocked a planned consolidation with rival carrier T-Mobile US. Some of his other “crazy ideas”, though, helped to produce the cash to fund the Arm takeover and offered clues that he was gearing up for a big move.

甚至在2012年收购美国移动运营商Sprint前，孙正义就考虑过收购ARM。那笔200亿美元的收购不但未成为一笔交易传奇，反而成了软银的“污点”——此前，美国监管机构阻止了Sprint与对手T-Mobile计划中的合并。但孙正义一些其他“疯狂想法”帮他筹集到了收购ARM的现金，也让人觉察到他正在酝酿一个大动作。

About three months ago, SoftBank took a previously undisclosed 1.45 per cent stake in Arm.

大概三个月前，软银收购了ARM 1.45%的股份（此前未公开）。

In early June, SoftBank said it would raise $10bn by selling a partial stake in Chinese ecommerce group Alibaba, the first time it had sold any of the investment that it acquired for just $20m in 2000 and is now worth about $60bn. Weeks later, SoftBank sold its majority stake in the Clash of Clans mobile game-maker Supercell to the Chinese internet group Tencent for $8.6bn.

6月初，软银表示，将通过出售中国电子商务集团阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的部分股份筹集100亿美元，这是软银首次用其在2000年仅以2000万美元购得、如今价值约600亿美元的这笔投资来进行任何套现。几周后，软银以86亿美元的价格向中国互联网集团腾讯(Tencent)出售了所持《部落冲突》(Clash of Clans)手游开发商速波赛尔(Supercell)的多数股份。

Many investors assumed the cash would be used to pay down SoftBank’s enormous $112bn debt pile and some close followers have suggested that a decision to move on Arm sparked the abrupt resignation of Mr Son’s heir apparent, Nikesh Arora, a former Google executive, on June 22.

许多投资者当时以为，这些现金会用于支付软银1120亿美元的巨额债务，孙正义的亲信曾暗示，收购ARM的决定导致了孙正义的准接班人、谷歌前高管尼克什•阿罗拉(Nikesh Arora) 6月22日的突然辞职。

Mr Arora told the FT at the time that his decision to quit came after Mr Son declared he no longer intended to surrender running the company in 2017, as planned. Mr Son had shared his admiration of Arm with Mr Arora, but it remains unclear whether a decision to try to buy it added to the tension between the two men. With Mr Arora gone, Mr Son pressed ahead. But his plan received a setback when the UK’s decision to leave the EU became known in the early hours of June 24.

当时，阿罗拉对英国《金融时报》表示，他是在孙正义宣布不再打算按计划于2017年退出公司经营之后决定辞职的。孙正义曾向阿罗拉表示过自己对ARM的倾慕，但目前尚不清楚是不是试图收购ARM的决定加剧了两人间的紧张关系。阿罗拉辞职后，孙正义加快了收购进程。但6月24日凌晨公布的英国退欧决定使他的计划遇挫。

Paradoxically, the referendum outcome sent Arm shares surging, offsetting any potential currency gains. As sterling tanked against the US dollar and yen, investors flocked to the strongest UK companies — especially those with earnings principally in dollars.

奇怪的是，公投结果却让ARM股价飙升，抵消了汇率变化为收购者带来的所有潜在好处。由于英镑兑美元和日元汇率出现暴跌，投资者纷纷涌向优质英国公司——尤其是那些利润主要以美元计价的公司。

Either way, Brexit was not much of a factor in Mr Son’s thinking. “There was not even 0.1 per cent of Brexit on my mind when I made this decision,” he said in Japanese to reporters after the deal.

不管怎样，英国退欧对孙正义的思考并没产生太多影响。他在交易后用日语对记者说：“做这个决定时，英国退欧在我脑子里连0.1%的分量都没占到。”

His next move was to invite Simon Segars, Arm’s Silicon Valley-based chief executive, to dinner at his mansion in the Atherton area of the Valley in late June.

他当时的下一步计划是邀请ARM在硅谷的首席执行西蒙•西格斯(Simon Segars)共进晚餐，时间为6月下旬，地点则定在孙正义位于硅谷阿瑟顿地区的宅第。

He concluded that Mr Segars shared his vision for the internet of things and should continue to run Arm in the event of a takeover.

他得出，西格斯对物联网的设想与自己一样，因此在收购后应该继续让他运营ARM。

Mr Segars was also present at the Marmaris meeting, along with SoftBank International’s chief financial officer, Alok Sama, when the first bid was unexpectedly relayed.

西格斯也参加了在马尔马里斯的会面，同样在场的还有软银国际(SoftBank International)的首席财务官阿洛克•萨马(Alok Sama)。就在那次会面中，第一次报价被意外提出。

Arm’s board, led by Mr Chambers, moved to get defence advisers at Goldman Sachs and Lazard in place. The first offer was rejected after a few days and a subsequent raised bid was also rebuffed.

钱伯斯领导的ARM董事会随后请来高盛(Goldman Sachs)和瑞德(Lazard)做顾问。几天后第一次报价被拒绝了，随后提出的一次报价也被拒绝。

Sensing he was nearing victory, Mr Son decided to fly to London to seal the deal last Tuesday — just as it became clear that Mrs May would become the UK’s new leader. The seventh floor of Lazard’s Mayfair offices was cleared out, with a select few from opposing camps taking a room on either side of where Mr Son and Mr Chambers would bargain. The SoftBank chief made his third offer directly to Mr Chambers, who shot it down and replied with an even higher figure.

孙正义预感自己胜利在望，于是决定在上周二（局势明确梅将成为英国新任领导人的时候）飞到伦敦敲定这笔交易。瑞德位于梅费尔区办公楼的七层被腾出来，分别代表孙正义和钱伯斯的谈判双方各精选出数人，占据了居于两方各自商议区域中间的一间房间。孙正义直接向钱伯斯提出了第三次报价，钱伯斯拒绝这一报价，回复了一个更高的数字。

Mr Son thought the deal would slip away as he left the building and retreated to The Berkeley, the luxury hotel by Hyde Park, to let tensions cool.

孙正义觉得这笔交易可能会黄，他离开了这栋大楼，回到海德公园旁的豪华酒店伯克利(The Berkeley)，让紧张的气氛降温。

“Arm miscalibrated,” says one adviser involved. Mr Son had stretched his price already and he had to “draw a line”.

一位参与谈判的顾问表示：“ARM标价有误。”孙正义的报价已高于预算，他不得不“划出底线”。

A short while later, Mr Chambers invited Mr Son to The Lanesborough, another elite hotel nearby. There was a rapprochement and the two chairmen shook hands on a ￡17 cash offer for each Arm share and a 4p dividend, a 43 per cent premium to its latest closing price.

没多久，钱伯斯邀请孙正义到附近另一家高级酒店莱恩斯伯勒(The Lanesborough)。双方恢复友好，两名董事长也达成一致：以每股17镑的现金价格收购ARM，另付每股4便士的红利。这一收购价比ARM上周五收盘价高43%。

Mr Son’s advisory team, comprising boutique firms The Raine Group and Robey Warshaw, along with Japan’s Mizuho Securities, began working with Arm’s advisers to draft the final terms. The remaining work days were also spent converting the requisite ￡24.3bn from Japanese yen and US dollars to sterling, in order to conform with the UK takeover code.

孙正义的顾问团队（包括精品投行The Raine Group和Robey Warshaw，以及日本瑞惠证券(Mizuho Securities)）接下来开始与ARM的顾问合作起草最终条款。然后他们又花了几天时间将收购所需的243亿英镑从日元和美元转换成英镑，以符合英国的收购守则。

Insiders feared the huge transaction would lead to a leak, alerting politicians to a foreign bidder at a time of heightened sensitivity. But by early Monday, as news of the deal broke, both victory and the element of surprise had been assured. After a two-week battle, a transaction that would stun the technology industry was announced.

内部人士曾担心这笔庞大的交易会走漏消息，在一个高度敏感的时刻引起政界人士对一个外国买家的警觉。但到了周一早间交易消息传出的时候，事实让他们放下心来——交易成功达成，消息也没有提前走漏。经历了两周的战斗后，这笔将震惊科技业的交易获得了宣布。

The first reaction of investors in Tokyo was to send SoftBank shares down 10 per cent. For Mr Son, it was never about the short term in making the biggest bet of his career.

东京投资者的第一反应就是让软银股价跌了10%。不过，孙正义做出这笔其职业生涯的最大赌博，从来不是为了博取短期利益。

“Most of the time, when I make a big move people say I am out of my mind,” he says. “But I don’t think about how I can add to what I have today . . . I think in terms of 20-year horizons.”

孙正义说：“大多数时候，当我作出一个大动作，人们说我疯了。但我考虑的不是如何能锦上添花……我考虑的是20年后的事情。”