人民币加入SDR后或再度走低
A new era of international acceptance of the renminbi will begin when onshore trading of the currency resumes on Monday after a nine-day break when offshore rates neared six-year lows.
人民币获得国际接受的新时代即将开始。这种货币的在岸交易将在周一恢复，在此前长达9天的休市期间，离岸人民币汇率接近六年低点。
Last week’s weakness has pushed the gap between the two rates to a three-month high — something Beijing has been trying to minimise as it seeks to curb capital outflow pressures. A sharply weaker offshore rate sends a signal that international investors are betting on currency weakness and risks triggering renewed capital flight.
上周的疲软将在岸和离岸汇率之差扩大至三个月来最高水平，而北京方面在寻求减少资本流出压力之际一直在试图尽量缩小这种汇率差异。大幅走低的离岸汇率发出了一个信号，表明国际投资者押注人民币疲软，这有可能触发新的资本外流。
Speculation of renewed weakness has grown since China was officially included as a reserve currency alongside the dollar, euro, sterling and the yen by the International Monetary Fund on October 1. Beijing had been keen to limit swings in its currency leading up to that point, but strategists have suggested it could tolerate further weakness now it has succeeded.
自人民币在10月1日正式加入美元、欧元、英镑和日元的行列，被国际货币基金组织(IMF)纳入储备货币篮子后，对人民币再度疲软的猜测再度升温。此前北京方面积极限制人民币汇率波动，但策略师们提出，既然人民币已经“入篮”，北京方面可能会容忍进一步的弱势。
Reserves data imply the People’s Bank of China spent about $27bn last month in supporting the renminbi, according to analysts, as its total foreign exchange holdings dropped $18bn — more than expected — to $3.17tn, their lowest level in more than five years.
分析师们表示，储备数据暗示，中国人民银行(PBoC)上月动用约270亿美元支持人民币，因为其外汇储备总量减少了180亿美元（多于预期），至3.17万亿美元，这是五年多来最低水平。
“The renminbi has held fairly steady against the dollar in recent months. But, as [the] data highlight, this is only because the PBoC has continued to intervene heavily in the FX markets in response to still large capital outflows,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics. “Looking ahead, we think the risks to the currency remain on the downside.”
“人民币在近几个月对美元保持相对稳定。但是，正如这些数据所突显的，这只是因为中国央行继续在外汇市场大举干预，以应对仍然较大的资本外流，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的中国经济学家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示。“展望未来，我们认为人民币仍然面临下行风险。”
On Friday the offshore renminbi slipped to a low of Rmb6.7174 against the dollar, matching levels not seen since January’s turmoil on China’s currency and equity markets. The onshore rate closed at Rmb6.6718 ahead of China’s long Golden Week holiday.
上周五，离岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至1美元兑6.7174元人民币的低位，这是自1月份中国汇市和股市发生动荡以来未见的水平。在中国国庆黄金周长假之前，在岸汇率收于1美元兑6.6718元人民币。
The currency has fallen almost 7.5 per cent against the dollar since the PBoC reformed its management of the currency last year. Since the turmoil in January this year, investors have largely accepted that China’s new system does more closely reflect global market direction.
自中国央行去年改革其汇率管理机制以来，人民币相对于美元已下跌近7.5%。自今年1月市场出现动荡以来，投资者基本上接受中国新汇率制度确实在更密切地反映全球市场走向。
The changes have also largely appeased critics of Beijing’s previous currency actions as concern shifts instead to the rapid debt build-up in the world’s second-largest economy.
这些变化也基本上安抚了中国汇率行动的批评者，各方的担忧焦点随即转向世界第二大经济体的快速债务累积。
Speaking at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington, PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan acknowledged the criticism, promising that Beijing will move to “exert control over credit growth”.
中国央行行长周小川上周在华盛顿举行的IMF和世界银行(World Bank)会议上发表讲话时，承认存在这些批评，并承诺北京方面“会对信贷增长有所控制”。
Mr Zhou also said in Washington that Beijing would continue to “improve exchange rate flexibility while maintaining exchange rate stability” — an increasingly contradictory mandate.
周小川还在华盛顿表示，北京方面将继续“在提高汇率灵活性和保持汇率稳定之间寻求平衡”，这是一个日益矛盾的任务。
“Under a [fully] market-determined exchange rate, the [renminbi] would be weaker against the US dollar than it is now,” said Bill Adams, senior international economist at PNC, which predicts that the current system will cushion the renminbi’s fall, holding it to 6.9 against the dollar by January and 7.1 per cent by the end of 2017.
“在一个完全由市场决定的汇率形成机制下，人民币兑美元汇率将比现在更弱，”PNC高级国际经济学家比尔•亚当斯(Bill Adams)表示。这家金融服务企业预测，现行机制将缓冲人民币跌势，使其到1月份守住1美元兑6.9元人民币水平，到2017年底守住1美元兑7.1元人民币水平。
Earlier this year, Beijing’s foreign currency stockpile was declining by as much as $100bn a month. At the time, government officials said privately that they would welcome a $1tn decline in the reserves as Chinese companies paid down dollar-denominated debt and also snapped up overseas assets at an unprecedented rate
今年早些时候，中国外汇储备逐月下降，月降幅最高在1000亿美元。当时，随着中国企业偿还美元债务，并以前所未有的速度收购海外资产，政府官员们私下里表示，他们乐于接受外汇储备减少1万亿美元。
The officials also maintained that they would be comfortable with a $2tn forex cushion — which would still be by far the world’s largest — but continue to insist that there is “no basis” for a prolonged slide of the renminbi against the dollar.
这些官员们还认为，他们将对2万亿美元的外汇储备（仍将是世界上遥遥领先的最大外汇储备规模）感到放心，但同时继续坚称，人民币对美元不存在持续下滑的基础。
