市场对奥朗德可能当选法国总统不安

The eurozone's sovereign debt crisis has helped topple half a dozen European leaders. It looks like French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be next. Polls show Sarkozy's Socialist rival, Francois Hollande, winning France's May 6 runoff election. But the prospect of an Hollande presidency is making markets - and analysts - nervous.

欧元区的主权债务危机已经导致多名欧洲领导人下台，法国总统萨科齐看起来可能会是下一个 。民调显示，萨科齐的社会党对手奥朗德将赢得法国5月6日的总统选举决选。不过奥朗德若当选总统令市场和分析人士不安。

It's been nearly 20 years since France had a Socialist president. That may change in just over a week. French polls all predict Socialist contender Francois Hollande will beat conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of presidential elections on May 6.

法国总统为社会党人已经是将近20年前的事了。这可能将在一个星期左右有所改变。法国民调全都预测，在5月6日第二轮总统选举中，社会党竞争者奥朗德将击败保守派总统萨科齐。

In press conferences and interviews - like one on French radio Friday - Hollande outlines an economic strategy that includes more taxes for the rich and more spending to stimulate growth.

奥朗德陆续在一些记者会和采访中提出了他大概的经济策略，包括对富人增税，同时增加开支刺激增长。

But Hollande says his first action would target the wider eurozone crisis that is now in its third year. Hollande says he will renegotiate a European Union fiscal treaty agreed to last year in order to promote economic growth.

不过奥朗德说，他的第一个行动会放在更广的欧元区危机。欧元区危机现在已经进入第三年。奥朗德说，他将就去年通过的欧盟财政条约重新谈判以刺激经济增长。

The Socialist candidate is getting applause from his supporters - but not from markets, which briefly dipped after he won the first round of French elections last Sunday. Analysts like economics professor Tomasz Michalski, of the HEC business school in Paris, also see little reason to cheer.

这位社会党候选人赢得支持者的肯定，但不受市场欢迎。就在他上星期天赢得第一轮选举后市场短暂下跌。例如巴黎高等商学院经济学家迈考斯基等分析人士，也不认为市场有高兴的理由。

"First of all, Hollande is going to increase very drastically taxes in France. In the short run the increase in taxes is going to lower the budget deficit," he said. "But in the long run it's not a good growth strategy…this is going to keep talent away. And France desperately needs new businesses, desperately needs entrepreneurs to keep the economy going."

迈考斯基说：“首先，奥朗德将大幅提高法国的税。增税在短期内能降低预算赤字，但长期来说并不是良好的增长策略，这会让人才却步。而法国迫切需要新的企业和新的创业者来维持经济。”

Other experts agree. Britain's leading The Economist magazine is even more critical, calling Hollande's economic prescriptions "dangerous."

其他专家同意这种说法。英国知名杂志《经济学人》的批评更为严厉，他们称奥朗德的经济对策“危险”。

Analyst Philip Whyte, of the London-based Center for European Reform, says he understands why markets are jittery about an Hollande presidency.

总部设在伦敦的欧洲改革中心的分析人士怀特说，他了解市场为何对奥朗德担任总统不安。

"But of course, once he's in office, he will very quickly be confronted by some of the constraints of office and some of those constraints might be imposed by the bond markets," he said."

怀特说：“但当然一旦他当选，他将很快遭遇一些限制，而这些限制有些可能来自债券市场。”

Hollande's growth prescription for Europe even got some support this week by European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi, who called on governments to invest in jobs and growth along with spending cuts.

奥朗德对欧洲经济增长的对策这星期甚至获得欧洲央行行长德拉吉的支持。德拉吉曾呼吁欧洲政府在削减开支外同时对工作和增长进行投资。Jobs and economic growth are top concerns of French voters like 54-year-old Fatna Chouaikh. Chouaikh believes Hollande can turn things around. She says Hollande is competent, hard-working and has what it takes to bring France out of its economic doldrums.

工作和经济增长是法国选民最关心的问题。54岁的舒伊克相信，奥朗德可以使事情好转。舒伊克说，奥朗德有能力、很认真，能让法国走出经济衰退。

Under current President Sarkozy, the economy shrank and unemployment soared to nearly 10 percent.

Most analysts agree that Sarkozy is not to blame for a global crisis that has sent many other economies tumbling as well. Whyte, of the Center for European Reform, credits Sarkozy for pushing through a few key reforms - like raising the retirement age - and for his initial leadership in the eurozone crisis.

多数分析人士都同意，不能将一场全球危机怪罪于萨科齐。这场全球危机已经让其他许多经济体崩溃。欧洲改革中心的怀特肯定萨科齐推动例如提高退休年龄等几项关键改革，以及萨科齐在欧元区危机最初发生时的领导。

But Whyte faults the French president for letting German Chancellor Angela Merkel dictate eurozone policies today. And overall, he gives Sarkozy's performance a mediocre review.

不过怀特责怪萨科齐让德国总理默克尔主导今天的欧元区政策。整体而言，他认为萨科齐表现平庸。

"The problem with Sarkozy is that he really doesn't have an economic vision," Whyte said. "He's a man of action. But he has no real coherence to much of what he does. If you look at his performance over five years as president, there's not been a terribly clear economic path he's forged."

怀特说：“萨科齐的问题在于，他完全没有经济想法。他是起而行的人。但他做事完全没有一致性。如果你看他过去五年担任总统的表现，他根本没走出一条清楚的经济道路。”

Professor Michalski offers similar criticism.

迈考斯基教授也提出了类似的批评。

"The measures that Sarkozy is proposing in this campaign do not form a coherent long-term program," he said. "Rather, they're small measures addressed to particular issues. So I'm very skeptical."

迈考斯基说：“萨科齐这次竞选的一些举措并没有形成长期而一致的项目。他们都是为解决特定问题的小举措。所以我非常怀疑。”

Ultimately, smaller parties may shape the economic policies of either an Hollande or a Sarkozy presidency. Hollande is counting on far-left and centrist voters to win the May 6 runoff. Sarkozy is courting those who voted for the far-right in the first round - and who are skeptical of the European Union and of taking economic orders from Brussels.

最终，较小的党派可能影响无论是奥朗德或萨科齐担任总统的经济政策。奥朗德将依赖极左派和中间选民赢得5月6日的决选。萨科齐则依赖在第一轮投票中投给极右派的选民，和那些对欧盟以及对由布鲁塞尔下达经济命令有疑虑的选民。