日本金价飙升推动抛售活动

Japan's gold holders may be preparing to cash out of some bullion after the yen's drop has sent domestic prices of the metal soaring.

在日圆贬值导致国内金价飙升后，日本黄金持有者可能正准备将部分金条换成现款。

But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic overhauls could provide a fresh demand source in the country later this year if investors seek hedges against inflation.

但日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的经济改革可能会在今年晚些时候让日本国内出现新的黄金需求，如果投资者为对抗通胀而寻求资产保值的话。

The price of gold within Japan hit a record high this week. It has jumped 4.2% since the start of the year and about 10% since late November, when Mr. Abe sparked a slide in the yen by pushing for further monetary easing to boost the sluggish economy.

日本国内的金价本周达到破纪录的高位，年初至今涨了4.2%。去年11月末以来，涨幅更是超过10%。当时安倍晋三为刺激日本疲弱的经济，推动进一步放宽货币政策，引发日圆下跌。

While global benchmark prices of gold in dollars are little changed this year, the yen's retreat against the dollar has made the metal more expensive for buyers in Japan.

按美元计算的全球黄金基准价今年几无变化，而日圆兑美元的下跌让黄金对日本国内买家来说更显昂贵。

Those higher prices, traders say, have spurred increased selling activity in recent weeks, including stepped-up inquiries from retail investors. In the past, the race to sell gold has gotten intense at times; investors formed queues outside jewelers in downtown Tokyo five years ago and again in September 2011, when gold prices hit peaks, though that hasn't yet happened this time around.

交易员说，在金价走高的影响下，这几周黄金抛售活动增多，其中散户的咨询也有所增加。过去，竞相出售黄金的情况时有发生，有时气氛搞得还很紧张。五年前，投资者曾在东京市中心的珠宝行外排起长队，而这一景象在2011年9月金价达到峰值时再次出现。不过这次到目前为止，还没有出现抛售潮。

'We initially expect a lot more selling back of gold, including used jewelry, before we see new buying,' said Naoto Mizuki, general manager of the marketing department at Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry, a major gold dealer and retail store.

日本大型黄金交易商和零售店田中贵金属珠宝株式会社(Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry)营销部总经理水木直人(Naoto Mizuki，音)说，最初我们以为在新一轮购买潮到来前，会有比现在规模大得多的黄金回售活动，包括二手首饰。

Japan's investors don't have the same voracious appetite for gold as those in China and India, which are the world's top two gold buyers. As such, changes in Japanese buying or selling patterns are unlikely to become major drivers for international gold prices.

相比中国和印度这两个全球最大黄金买家，日本投资者对黄金的需求并没有那么贪婪。就这一点而论，日本人买卖模式的变化不太可能成为影响国际金价的主要因素。

Still, Japan is awash in gold thanks to hefty imports during the country's bubble economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1993, gold imports to Japan totaled more than 160 metric tons, including heavy buying of coins and jewelry, but a decade later imports had fallen to about 55 tons, according to data from gold dealer Tanaka and precious-metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.

但日本的黄金存量仍然很大，原因是日本在上世纪80年代末和90年代初经济泡沫期间的大量进口。据黄金交易商Tanaka和贵金属咨询机构Thomson Reuters GFMS统计，1993年日本进口的黄金总计超过160吨，其中包括对金币和首饰的大举采购；但10年后，日本进口的黄金降至约55吨。

However, Mr. Abe's push to boost inflation, and the appeal of hard assets such as gold that hold their value in times of currency weakness, may bring some new buyers to the market.

不过，安倍晋三推高通胀的努力以及货币疲软时黄金等硬资产的保值吸引力也许会为日本黄金市场带来一些新买家。

'As inflationary pressures pick up, you could see more people looking to hedge against the erosion of value in their portfolios,' said Nicholas Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. +1.06% 'The first product people think about when it comes to inflation is gold: it's a very obvious trade.'

澳新银行(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.)大宗商品高级策略师特勒维森(Nicholas Trevethan)说，随着通胀压力的增大，可能会有越来越多的人希望保护其资产组合价值不受侵蚀，而谈到抗通胀，人们想到的第一个产品就是黄金：这是个显而易见的交易。

Japan's benchmark Tokyo Commodity Exchange yen-denominated gold contract has outperformed the dollar-denominated gold price that is used in the international market. London gold was at $1,679.75 a troy ounce Wednesday, down 0.1% since the start of the year.

东京商品交易所(Tokyo Commodity Exchange)以日圆计价的基准黄金合约价格高于国际市场上以美元计价的黄金价格。周三，伦敦金价为每盎司1,679.75美元，较年初下跌了0.1%。

'There is certainly buying out there, it's just that it's outweighed by the selling that there is,' said David Jollie, a strategic analyst at trading-house Mitsui Precious Metals. 'One thing you have is a generational difference, with young people who have disposable income buying gold, and selling by the older generation [who were the original importers of Japan's gold stock], so there's going to be a bit of a battle between those two sides.'

贸易公司三井贵金属(Mitsui Precious Metals)的策略分析师乔力(David Jollie) 说，日本国内肯定有人在买黄金，只是现在抛售占了上风而已。他说，其中有一点是代际差异，也就是说那些有可支配收入的年轻人在买黄金，而年纪大的人(也是当初进口黄金的人)在卖黄金，所以说有点像是这两拨人在进行拉锯战。

Over the last three to five years, more young Japanese people have become interested in gold, partly due to scant returns in the property and equity markets. After years of deflation, though, it is hard to predict how Japan's investors will react to an inflationary environment.

过去三到五年，对黄金感兴趣的年轻人渐多，原因之一是房地产和股票市场提供的回报并不理想。不过在经历了多年通缩之后，现在很难预测日本投资者将对通胀环境作何反应。

'It takes time to turn around an economy and change fiscal conditions,' said Takahiro Morita, director of investment for the World Gold Council in Japan.

世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)驻日本的投资负责人森田隆大(Takahiro Morita)说，扭转经济并改变财政状况，这是需要时间的。