当绿色能源遭遇低油价

Tumbling oil prices have long been seen as kryptonite for clean energy companies — and share prices of some of the world’s best known renewable power groups have slumped in the wake of the latest slide in crude.

油价暴跌一向被视为清洁能源企业的克星。近期原油价格大幅下滑，一些世界最知名的可再生能源集团的股价也随之猛跌。

Shares in Denmark’s Vestas, the world’s largest wind turbine supplier, dived after the oil producers’ cartel Opec decided not to cut production in late November and prices are still down 11 per cent, noticeably below the broader market.

11月末石油输出国组织（Opec，简称欧佩克）决定不减产后，丹麦维斯塔斯公司(Vestas)的股价应声暴跌——目前跌幅仍达11%，明显逊于整体股市表现。维斯塔斯是全球最大的风力涡轮发电机供应商。

The Chinese solar panel giant, Yingli Green Energy, and Tesla Motors, the US electric carmaker, have suffered even sharper share price falls. Crude’s surprise rise of $3 a barrel to $63.40 on Wednesday did little to halt the decline.

还有两只股票跌幅更大，中国太阳能电池板巨头英利绿色能源(Yingli Green Energy)和美国电动汽车制造商特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)。即使周三原油价格意外回涨3美元，至63.4美元每桶，也未能遏制这两家公司股票的跌势。

Even before Opec’s move, lower oil prices appeared to be hitting hybrid cars in the US, where sales were down 11 per cent in November compared with the same month last year. Sales of some models of fuel-hungry sports utility vehicles, meanwhile, were as much as 91 per cent higher last month than a year ago.

在欧佩克做出不减产决定之前，油价下跌似乎就已经开始冲击美国混合动力车市场。11月美国混合动力车销量同比下降11%。同时，一些耗油量大的运动型多功能车(SUV)销量同比上升了91%。

That trend may not be so pronounced in other industrialised countries where taxes make up a bigger component of pump prices than they do in the US. And some analysts say the market has overreacted when it comes to wind and solar companies.

这种趋势在其他发达国家或许不那么明显，因为与美国相比，这些国家的成品油零售价中税项所占的比例较大。一些分析人士称，对于风能、太阳能相关企业，市场反应过度了。

However, there is still a large question about how a prolonged period of low crude prices might affect global investment in clean energy, which has climbed from $60bn in 2004 to about $251bn last year.

然而，一个更大的问题是，假如原油价格长期处于低位，全球范围内的清洁能源投资会受到什么影响？此类投资已经从2004年的600亿美元攀升至2013年的2510亿美元。

A large chunk of that investment has been powered by the growth of renewable energy subsidies and analysts say a sustained bout of cheap oil dents the arguments many governments make that consumers are better off funding renewables because fossil fuel prices are likely to rise while wind and solar prices fall.

可再生能源补贴的增长带动了很大一部分清洁能源投资。分析人士表示，原油价格持续低企会削弱许多政府的以下论点，即投资发展可再生能源会让消费者享受更多实惠，因为化石能源价格可能会升高，而风能和太阳能价格会降低。

“Much policy in recent years has been justified on the basis of scarce hydrocarbons and continually rising prices of said hydrocarbons,” said Ian Temperton of Climate Change Capital, a green investment specialist owned by Bunge, the global agribusiness.

“近年来许多政策的依据都是烃类能源的稀缺性，以及这类能源持续走高的价格趋势，”跨国农业集团邦吉(Bunge)旗下绿色投资企业——气候变化资本(Climate Change Capital)的伊恩•坦珀顿(Ian Temperton)说。

This argument may have to be adjusted even if the latest oil-price rout eases, he says, because if governments end up taking tougher action on global warming, such as the international climate deal to be sealed in Paris next year, it may dampen fossil fuel use.

坦珀顿表示，即使最近的油价崩盘有所好转，这种论点或许也需要调整，因为如果政府最终对全球变暖采取更大力度的行动，比如计划明年在巴黎签署的国际气候协议，这些行动或许会抑制化石能源的使用。

“Policy makers will have to come to terms with the fact that if the plan is to stop using hydrocarbons before we run out of them, then they will go into oversupply and their price will fall in the long term,” said Mr Temperton.

“政策制定者必须接受以下事实，如果相关计划是在我们逐渐用完烃类能源前停止使用此类能源，那么烃类能源将供过于求，其价格在长期来看将下降，”坦珀顿说。

For the moment, it is still too early to be able to discern a meaningful impact on renewable investment trends from falling oil prices. But at first glance, history suggests the impact could be serious.

就目前来说，要辨明油价下跌对可再生能源投资是否有实质性影响，还为时过早。但若是根据历史情况初步判断，这种影响可能会十分严重。

A jump in crude prices during the 1970s Arab oil embargo prompted what looked like a new age of green energy, not least in the US.

20世纪70年代阿拉伯国家石油禁运导致原油价格飙涨，使美国等国家迎来了绿色能源的新纪元。

Solar panels went up on the roof of the White House then occupied by President Jimmy Carter, while a raft of energy conservation measures were launched and insulation rates rose.

时任美国总统吉米•卡特(Jimmy Carter)在白宫屋顶安装了太阳能电池板，同时政府推出了许多节能措施，绝热率也上升了。

As oil prices came down, however, so did the White House solar panels, under President Ronald Reagan, along with investment in a nascent wind and solar industry. Sales of gas-guzzling vehicles, on the other hand, climbed.

然而，当油价降了下来，白宫屋顶的太阳能电池板也在总统罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)任内被拆除，对新兴的风能和太阳能产业的投资也随之下降。同时，高油耗汽车的销量则提高了。

Today, however, a new driver of clean energy investment has emerged in the shape of global warming concerns. This was not the case last century, when worries centred on too heavy a reliance on foreign oil imports.

现在，全球对气候变暖的担忧成为了带动清洁能源投资的新动力。而在上世纪，情况并非如此，当时的忧虑主要集中在对外国原油进口的过分依赖上。

“Back then the prospect of climate change barely registered as a policy concern,” said Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency. “Today we know otherwise,” she said, adding that governments should take advantage of the latest oil price slump to encourage more low-carbon investment, by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies and putting a meaningful price on carbon.

“那时，气候变化的前景几乎未被纳入政策制定的关注范畴，”国际能源署(International Energy Agency)总干事玛丽亚•范德胡芬(Maria van der Hoeven)称，“如今我们知道情况不同了。”她补充道，各国政府应该利用这次油价下跌的机会，通过取消化石能源补贴以及制定合理碳税，鼓励增加对低碳产业的投资。

There are now more than 480 climate change laws in countries around the world, up from fewer than 40 in 1997, according to Globe International, a legislator body that annually assesses laws to combat global warming.

根据Globe International的数据，目前世界各国共有超过480部有关气候变化的法律，而1997年不足40部。该机构是每年对抵御全球变暖的法律进行评估的立法者团体。

That includes those subsidies for wind farms and solar plants that have pushed up green-energy use worldwide, especially in countries such as Germany, Europe’s largest economy, where renewables now account for as much as a quarter of the electricity used.

其中包含一些向风力发电厂和太阳能发电厂提供补贴的措施。正是这两类发电厂推动了绿色能源在全球范围的应用，特别是在欧洲最大经济体德国，可再生能源如今为德国供给1/4的电力。

That support — plus the fact that the use of oil-fired power plants has declined sharply in many countries — is one reason analysts say share market slides in some renewables companies may be overblown.

这种支持措施，再加上很多国家的燃油发电站急剧减少的情况，是分析师认为一些可再生能源股已经跌得过多的一个原因。

“The conventional wisdom is that if oil prices go down, then it drags down power prices and makes wind and solar look more expensive,” said Credit Suisse analyst Mark Freshney. The correlation is a lot more complicated now, he says. “But I think there is still a perception in the market that the link exists.”

瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析师马克•弗雷谢尼(Mark Freshney)称：“传统观点认为，如果油价下滑，便会拉低电价，使风能和太阳能显得更贵。”他称，这种关联如今变得复杂得多。“不过，我觉得市场中仍然有人认为存在这种关联。”

Some parts of the clean energy industry, such as biofuels, may face a greater risk from cheap oil. But analysts say the broader investment outlook is uncertain.

清洁能源产业中的个别领域，比如生物能源，遭受低油价冲击的风险可能更大。不过分析师称，整体产业投资前景目前尚不明朗。

“We do not expect a lot of impact unless the oil price falls significantly further and stays at those lower levels,” says Angus McCrone of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research group.

“我们不认为会产生很大影响，除非油价进一步急剧下跌并维持在较低水平，”彭博新能源财经(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)的分析师安格斯•麦克龙(Angus McCrone)称。

Even in regions where oil prices are linked to some gas contracts, such as Europe, it is difficult to see a short term impact on renewables, he says.

麦克龙称，即使在油价与天然气合约存在关联的地区，比如欧洲，也不太可能看到油价对可再生能源形成短期冲击。

“Weaker gas prices in Europe could give utilities a reason to burn more gas and less coal,” says Mr McCrone. “But there is no reason at the moment to expect an impact on wind and solar investment,” he says, because investment decisions are driven largely by national incentive schemes.

“欧洲天然气价下跌，可能给公共事业部门提供一个燃烧更多天然气、减少使用煤炭的理由，”麦卡龙称，“但是，目前没有理由认为这会对风能和太阳能投资造成冲击。”他称，这是因为相关投资决定很大程度上是受国家激励计划的驱动。

“The chances of early policy changes are slim, since no country would base its strategy for the future power mix on short-term movements in the spot price of gas,” he said.

他称：“初期发生政策变动的几率不大，因为没有国家会把未来能源构成战略建立在天然气现货价格的短期波动上。”

A shift in the way electricity is generated since the days of the Arab oil embargo is also important, say some wind industry leaders.

风电行业的重量级人物称，自阿拉伯石油禁运时代之后发电方式的转变，也是一个重要因素。

“We don’t compete with oil,” said Steve Sawyer, secretary-general of the Global Wind Energy Council.

全球风能理事会(Global Wind Energy Council)秘书长史蒂夫•索耶(Steve Sawyer)表示：“我们不与石油竞争。”

“Twenty-five years ago there was a substantial amount of electricity generated by oil, but not now,” he said, adding the cost of wind power had declined so much that even with crude at $30 a barrel, wind farms could be competitive with the diesel generation still used in some developing countries and island states.

“25年前，石油发电量相当大，但现在不一样，”索耶补充称，风力发电的成本已经大为降低，即便原油价格降到每桶30美元，风力发电厂仍然可以与柴油发电（一些发展中国家和岛国仍然使用这种发电方式）竞争。