印度制造不可能完全取代中国制造

PUNE, India — Play-Doh, Monopoly and practically all of Hasbro's other toys were made in China for decades. Now, Hasbro is changing course.

印度浦那——几十年来，培乐多(Play-Doh)、大富翁(Monopoly)，以及孩之宝(Hasbro)的几乎所有其他玩具都在中国生产。现在，孩之宝开始改弦更张。

While the company still sources expensive, complex toys like the electronic FurReal Friends from China, Hasbro has contracts for production in Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam and Mexico. It has moved most aggressively into India, where Hasbro now buys from several sizable factories, and another is planned.

虽然孩之宝旗下较为昂贵、复杂的玩具，比如电子的“亲亲宠物”(FurReal Friends)系列，仍然在中国加工制造，但该公司的生产订单也发往了土耳其、印度尼西亚、越南和墨西哥。它进军最积极的地方是印度，孩之宝现在已经在印度有了几家相当大的工厂，而且还计划再开一家。

Multinationals around the globe have begun to look seriously at manufacturing in India, with its plentiful and inexpensive labor pool. But the investment doesn't mean doing business in India is getting easier. Rather, it is a sign that doing business in China is getting more difficult.

世界各地的跨国公司已经开始认真看待印度制造业，那里有充足的廉价劳动力资源。但投资印度并不意味着在该国开展业务变容易了，而是显示出在中国做生意越来越难了。

The Hong Kong-based Musical Group decided to build the latest Hasbro factory in India after facing severe labor shortages and soaring wages at its main factory in southern China. But Musical, like many companies, is running headlong into India's bureaucratic morass over land purchases, and the project is months behind schedule.

美好集团(Musical Group)总部设在香港，其在中国南部的旗舰工厂遭遇了严重的劳动力短缺，而且工人工资飙升，于是该集团决定在印度修建最新的孩之宝工厂。但是和许多公司一样，该集团在购买土地的问题上也陷入了印度的官僚泥沼，项目进度落后了数月之久。

“We've had a very tough negotiation with the local government,” said Christopher Tse, the managing director of the Musical Group, which for nearly 35 years did almost all its manufacturing in China. “It takes more time than I expected.”

“我们与当地政府的谈判非常艰难，”美好集团董事总经理谢鸿强(Christopher Tse)说，“花的时间比我预期的长。”该集团近35年来所有的制造加工环节，几乎都是在中国内地进行的。

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, the situation presents a political and economic challenge.

对于印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)来说，这种情况是政治和经济上的一个挑战。

More than a year ago, Modi, wearing a traditional bright yellow jacket and standing below an immense logo of an Indian tiger, unveiled an ambitious effort to ramp up manufacturing. The “Make in India” campaign promised to reduce bureaucracy and improve infrastructure, paving the way for big multinationals and other foreign investors. It was a cornerstone of his candidacy.

一年多前，莫迪穿着亮黄色的传统上衣，站在一个巨大的印度虎标志下，推出了一项雄心勃勃的壮大印度制造业的计划。“印度制造”(Make in India)计划承诺削减官僚手续，改善基础设施，为大型跨国公司和其他外国投资者铺平道路。这是莫迪竞选政纲的核心。

Since then, almost nothing has gone as planned.

自那时之后，几乎没有哪一项目标在按计划进行。

Progress in improving the country's inadequate roads, rail lines and ports has been slow. Corruption remains pernicious. Urban air pollution is even worse in India than in China, and could deteriorate further as more factories are built.

改善该国的道路、铁路和港口不足的行动进展缓慢。腐败仍然猖獗。随着更多的工厂建成，印度城市空气污染的程度甚至变得比中国还糟糕，而且可能会进一步恶化。

Plans to rewrite labor and land laws, and to overhaul state taxes, have stalled in Parliament. And an effort by Modi to bypass Parliament with temporary executive orders has run into trouble as well.

重写劳动法和土地法，大幅调整地方税的计划也在议会里遭遇阻挠。莫迪想绕过议会颁布临时行政命令，但也遇到了麻烦。

Modi's most controversial but potentially far-reaching executive order — making it easier to convert farmland into factory sites — expired on Aug. 31. He chose not to renew it. The ordinance had become a political liability in state elections, as farmers feared that it might be used to push them off their land.

莫迪最具争议性，但有可能带来影响深远的行政命令，允许将农田更容易地转变为工厂用地，它已经在今年8月31日到期，莫迪决定不再延期。这个行政命令在各邦的选举中已经成了一个政治包袱，农民担心有人利用它来征收自己的耕地。

“Ease of doing business is still a work in progress,” said India's finance minister, Arun Jaitley, adding that state governments were starting to reform land and labor laws.

“经商环境仍待完善，”财政部长阿伦·贾特里(Arun Jaitley)表示。他补充说，各邦政府已经开始修改土地法和劳动法。

Yet, slowly and a little unpredictably, India's manufacturing sector is starting to attract overseas investment.

然而，有点出人预料的是，印度制造业已经开始慢慢吸引海外投资了。

Foxconn, the world's largest contract manufacturer of smartphones and other electronics, which has most of its factories in China, agreed in August to open 10 to 12 plants in western India by 2020, employing as many as 50,000 workers. A week earlier, General Motors announced plans to invest $1 billion to develop new car models for the Indian market and nearly double the size of its 7-year-old factory on the outskirts of Pune.

富士康(Foxconn)是全球最大的智能手机和其他电子产品的代工制造商，其大部分工厂都设在中国。今年8月，该公司表示到2020年前，将在印度西部开设10到12家工厂，雇佣多达5万名工人。这个计划公布一周前，通用汽车(General Motors)宣布计划投资10亿美元，在印度市场开发新车型，并将其在浦那市郊有7年历史的老厂，扩大将近一倍。

Indian officials see manufacturing as essential to their country's future. They have 10 million young workers a year joining the labor force and few alternatives to create enough jobs.

印度官员认为，制造业对该国的未来发展至关重要。印度每年有1000万青年工人加入劳动力大军，几乎没有其他方法来创造足够的就业机会。

Devendra Fadnavis, an ally of Modi who is the chief minister of Maharashtra state that includes Mumbai and Pune, has been aggressively marketing his state's huge labor force in trips to China and elsewhere. “We have the human resources — if we can liberate them, we can pioneer the industrial production for the entire world,” Fadnavis said.

德文德拉·法德纳维斯(Devendra Fadnavis)是莫迪的盟友，也是孟买和浦那所在的马哈拉施特拉邦的首席部长。他前往中国和其他国家时，一直积极宣传该邦巨大的劳动力资源。“我们有人力资源——如果我们能够释放这些资源的潜力，就可以成为整个世界工业生产的先锋，”法德纳维斯说。

The pitch has worked. Foreign direct investment in India is up 46 percent over the last two years. It is down 1.3 percent in China, although it shows signs of a modest rebound lately.

这种宣传发挥了效果。在过去两年，印度获得的外国直接投资增长了46%。而中国却减少了1.3%，不过最近出现了小幅反弹的迹象。

The recent flood of foreign investment is helping propel India, which is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world this year. The International Monetary Fund estimated this month that India's economy would increase 7.3 percent in 2015, compared with 6.8 percent this year in China.

最近涌入的外国投资正在帮助推动印度增长。印度预计会成为今年全世界增长最快的主要经济体。国际货币基金组织(IMF)本月预测，2015年印度经济增速会达到7.3%，而中国今年预计仅为6.8%。

In many ways, India is benefiting from the challenges facing China.

在很多方面，印度都受益于中国面临的挑战。

Blue-collar wages in China have more than quintupled in the last decade and companies face worker shortages despite economic weakness. “If you want to hire 1,000 workers, you only find 600, and the turnover will be 15 or 20 percent a month,” said Tse of Musical Group, the Hasbro supplier.

过去十年里，中国蓝领工人的工资至少翻了两番。尽管经济疲软，但企业却面临着用工荒。“如果想招1000人，只能找到600人，并且每个月的人员流动率会达到15%到20%，”美好集团的谢鸿强说。该集团是孩之宝(Hasbro)的供应商。

Some multinationals also worry that China is becoming a politically riskier place to do business. Such concerns have been heightened by the country's growing show of force, like the sight of thousands of goose-stepping soldiers parading through Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, or the rapid construction of military-grade airfields this year on hastily built artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea.

一些跨国公司还担心，在中国做生意面临的政治风险越来越大。中国日渐频繁地炫耀武力的做法，也加剧了这种担心。比如9月3日，成千上万名士兵踢着正步走过天安门广场，又比如在有争议的南海，中国今年在仓促建成的人工岛上，迅速修建了军用级别的机场。

By comparison, India offers a stable democracy and low wages. Even skilled factory workers here in Pune, sometimes called the Detroit of India, earn about $300 a month, half of Chinese wages.

相比之下，印度有稳定的民主制度，且工资水平低。浦那有时会被称作印度的底特律，在那里，工厂熟练工的月工资也只有大约300美元，是中国工资的一半。

Maintaining its edge won't be easy for India.

但对印度来说，保持优势并非易事。

For one, India needs to significantly upgrade its roads, ports and other infrastructure. Musical Group initially considered building a factory about 200 kilometers (120 miles) outside Kolkata, formerly Calcutta. India's poor roads meant the trip would take four hours.

其中一个问题是，印度需要大幅升级道路、港口和其他基础设施。美好集团起初考虑在离加尔各答市区约200公里的地方建厂。但印度糟糕的路况意味着，这段路要耗时四个小时。

“In China, 200 kilometers is two hours,” said Tse. He ultimately decided to seek costlier land a few miles from the port, only to encounter slow-moving local officials.

“在中国，200公里只要两小时，”谢鸿强说。他最终决定去找距离港口几公里远的高价土地，却又遭遇了效率低下的地方官员。

India is also trying to expand manufacturing just as global trade stalls. A big export push by India could prompt a backlash in other countries, said Raghuram Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India and former chief economic adviser to the Indian government.

印度还试图在全球贸易失速之际扩大制造业。印度储备银行(Reserve Bank of India)行长、印度政府前首席经济顾问拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)称，印度大力推动出口可能会招致其他国家的强烈反对。

“To expect another China to come in without any political reaction would be naive,” he said in an interview in Mumbai. “We're going to have a much tougher fight for market share.”

“如果指望成为另一个中国，却又不在政治上遭遇任何反弹，那就太天真了，”他在孟买接受采访时说。“要想赢得市场份额，我们还要打一场艰苦得多的仗。”