FT年度人物 默克尔 Person of the Year: Angela Merkel

Days after returning from difficult negotiations over a third Greek debt bailout, Angela Merkel met a group of school children in the northern city of Rostock.

结束了艰难的第三次希腊债务纾困谈判几天后，安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)会晤了来自北部城市罗斯托克(Rostock)的一群中学生。

With the cameras rolling, a 14-year-old Palestinian girl named Reem Sahwil told Ms Merkel that she feared being sent back to a refugee camp in Lebanon if her family’s asylum application was rejected. “I don’t know what my future looks like as long as I don’t know if I can stay,” she told Ms Merkel in perfect German. “I’d like to go to college. That is really a … goal I’d like to achieve.”

在摄像机镜头前，14岁的巴勒斯坦女孩里姆萨维尔(Reem Sahwil)对默克尔表示她很害怕，如果家人的庇护申请被驳回，她就会被遣返黎巴嫩的难民营。里姆用流利的德语对默克尔说：“只要我还不知道自己能不能留下来，我就不知道自己的将来会怎么样。我想上大学，我真的想实现这个目标。”

Ms Merkel responded with a lesson in political realities. “We can’t just say, ‘You can all come. And all of you in Africa can come.’ We can’t manage that,” she said. Ms Sahwil broke down in tears. A video of the moment went viral, leaving an impression that the German chancellor could be cold, even mean.

默克尔给这位女孩上了一堂政治现实课，她说：“我们不能干脆地说，‘你们都可以来，非洲的所有人也可以来。’我们应付不了这么多人。”里姆萨维尔闻言泣不成声。这段视频在网上遭到疯转，它给人们留下了这样一种印象：这位德国总理是可以摆出冷漠甚至小气姿态的。

Yet only a few weeks later, the woman who had failed to console one refugee was embracing hundreds of thousands.

然而就在几个星期后，这位连一名难民都无法安慰的女性，接纳了几十万难民。

Instead of jumping to protect Germany’s frontiers from a wave of Syrian refugees, as many conservatives wanted, she pledged to shelter anyone from the war-torn country. Her “refugees welcome” message spread like wildfire. On social media, Syrians shared images of Ms Merkel bearing the words “we love you”. A burst of euphoria broke out, with Germans rushing to help the influx of refugees.

默克尔没有如许多保守派所期盼的那样，立即采取措施保卫德国边境，不让大量叙利亚难民涌入，反而承诺要向来自这个战火纷飞的国家的任何人提供庇护。默克尔“欢迎难民”的消息不胫而走。叙利亚人在社交媒体上纷纷转发默克尔的照片，配的文字是“我们爱你”。一时间引得群情振奋，德国民众抢着向涌入的难民伸出援手。

In a matter of weeks, Ms Merkel had been transformed in the eyes of the world and her fellow Germans. The cautious, “step-by-step” chancellor who had led Germany for a decade was gone, replaced by a politician with bold convictions. It was a big gambit, and it is far from clear whether it will pay off.

短短几个星期里，默克尔转变了她在世界和德国人眼中的形象。领导德国十年的那个谨慎、“步步为营”的总理不见了，取而代之的是一位信念坚定、敢于拍板的政治人物。默克尔走出了重要的一步棋子，目前还不清楚结果将会如何。

If it does, however, it will cement her reputation as one of Germany’s great chancellors. By keeping Europe’s doors open for more than 1m mostly Muslim refugees, Ms Merkel will leave a legacy as enduring as her mentor, former chancellor Helmut Kohl, who presided over German reunification and the birth of the euro. For this reason, the Financial Times has named Angela Merkel its 2015 Person of the Year.

如果取得成功，那将夯实默克尔作为德国最伟大总理之一的声誉。通过向100多万难民（大部分为穆斯林）敞开欧洲大门，默克尔将留下一份持久的政治遗产，就像她的导师、德国前总理赫尔穆特科尔(Helmut Kohl)一样——科尔主持了两德统一，还推动了欧元诞生。基于这一理由，英国《金融时报》评选安格拉默克尔为2015年年度人物。

Much of the initial feeling of goodwill has worn off, and she has been the target of harsh criticism from within her own CDU party for allowing a tide of refugees into the country. Jens Spahn, deputy finance minister, says: “We are living through a disruption of our state.”

但在眼下，德国民众最初的善意已基本耗尽，默克尔所属的基民盟(CDU)也严厉批评她允许大批难民涌入德国。德国财政部副部长延斯施潘(Jens Spahn)表示：“我们的国家正遭受破坏。”

Wolfgang Germany’s finance minister, compared her to a “careless skier” who risked causing “an avalanche”. So why did a politician known for her caution make a decision that could consume her? Allies say the 61-year-old chancellor was driven by her Christian principles, belief in the positive effects of migration — and concern that the crisis could tear Europe apart.

德国财长沃尔夫冈朔伊布勒(Wolfgang )将默尔克比作一个“粗心大意的滑雪者”，一不小心就会引发“雪崩”。那么，为什么一个以谨慎著称的政治人物会作出一个可能毁掉自己的决定呢？盟友们表示，驱动这位61岁的德国总理的因素包括：她本人的基督教原则，对于移民将带来正面影响的信念，以及对这场危机可能撕裂欧洲的担忧。

To her supporters, this is strong, moral leadership at a time when most global politics is dominated by short-term calculation. But to her critics, she has been rash, arrogant and self-righteous. The truth is different, says a close aide: “She is neither the white witch nor Mother Teresa.”

对默克尔的支持者来说，在全球政坛基本被短期利益主导的当下，她展现了强大的、道德的领导力。但在默克尔的反对者看来，她的行为轻率、傲慢、自以为是。默克尔身边的一位助理表示，这两边其实都错了：“她既不是白袍女巫，也不是特蕾莎修女。”

Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban, a vocal opponent of the refugee policy, has accused Ms Merkel of “moral imperialism”. He meant it as an insult, but for the chancellor it was unintended praise. She is seeking to impose her values, and has said as much: “If we now have to start apologising for showing a friendly face in response to emergency situations, then this is not my country.”

匈牙利总理维克托欧尔班(Viktor Orban)对默克尔的难民政策明确表示反对，指控默克尔是“道德帝国主义”。此言本意是要羞辱默克尔，但对于这位德国总理而言，这是一句意料外的赞美。她正是要将自己的价值观强加于事态，而且她就是这么表态的：“如果我们现在必须开始为以友善态度应对紧急情况道歉，那么这不是我的国家。”

Measured steps

步步为营

Biographers trace her famous prudence to her upbringing in Communist East Germany, where her Lutheran pastor father encouraged his children to think freely but keep their opinions to themselves. “Learning to keep quiet was a great advantage in the DDR period,” the chancellor once said.

传记作者认为，默克尔出名的审慎可以追溯到她在共产党统治的东德的成长经历。默克尔的父亲是一个路德派牧师，他鼓励子女自由思考，但不要说出来。默克尔曾说：“在东德时期，学会保持沉默是一大优势。”

She played by the rules, working hard at school, joining the Free German Youth (young Communists) and mastering Russian, unlike some students who did poorly in the language as a protest against Soviet rule. Her Stasi report noted that she saw the Soviet Union as “a dictator” but was enthused by Russian language and culture. Stefan Kornelius, a biographer, writes that much of the mystery about Ms Merkel lies in the 35 years she spent in this “completely alien other world”.

默克尔秉持着父亲的这些教诲，她在学校时十分用功，还加入了自由德国青年团（Free German Youth，有共产主义信仰的青年组成的团体）。默克尔还精通俄语，不像某些学生为表示对苏联统治的抗议，故意不好好学俄语。前东德国家安全部(Stasi)存档的默克尔档案指出，她视苏联为“独裁者”，但热衷于俄罗斯的语言和文化。传记作家斯蒂凡柯内琉斯(Stefan Kornelius)写道，围绕默克尔的很多神秘感，都起源于她在“完全陌生的另一个世界”度过的那35年。

When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, she did not rush to the western half, but kept an appointment to accompany a friend to the sauna. However, she went a few hours later, and again the following day. “The yearning for freedom cannot be contained by walls for long,” she said later. Like many east Germans, she relished the newfound freedom to travel, having only made one trip to the west as an adult. Unlike others, she did not devote herself to touring the world. She was also a woman in a hurry.

1989年柏林墙倒塌的那一刻，她并没有立即冲向西德，而是如约与一名朋友去洗桑拿。不过几小时后她就去了西德，第二天她又去了一次。默克尔后来说：“高墙无法长久地阻挡人们对自由的向往。”像许多东德人一样，她珍视新得到的旅行自由，在此之前，她在成年后只去过一次西德。但与其他人不同的是，她并没有到世界各地旅游。毕竟，她是一个事务繁多的女性。

After years as a professional physicist, she leapt into politics. Within months she was a government spokesman and, soon afterwards, a minister in Mr Kohl’s cabinet. And she was ruthless: when Mr Kohl became embroiled in a party funding scandal, she turned on her mentor and grabbed his job as party leader.

在从事了多年物理学研究后，默克尔投身政坛。短短几个月内，她就当上了政府发言人，而且很快成了科尔内阁的一名部长。当科尔卷入政党献金丑闻时，默克尔展现了坚决无情的一面，她与自己这位导师划清了界线，夺走了他的党魁职位。

Later, she rediscovered the virtues of prudence. She ran for chancellor in 2005 against the unpopular incumbent, social democrat Gerhard Schr搀攀爀, on a platform urging liberal economic reforms — and almost lost. She vowed never again to run ahead of her voters.

后来默克尔又重新发现了审慎的好处。2005年她竞选德国总理，她的对手是人气不高的时任总理、社会民主党人格哈德施罗德(Gerhard Schr搀攀爀)，当时默克尔以敦促德国推行自由化经济改革为竞选平台，结果险些失利。她发誓再也不超前于选民的愿望。

Instead, she consolidated power by pushing her conservative CDU/CSU bloc into the middle ground and winning three elections. Her few reforms — notably accelerating the phase-out of nuclear power after Japan’s Fukushima disaster — meshed with public opinion.

相反，她推动保守派的基民盟/基社盟(CDU/CSU)联盟向中间立场靠拢，赢得了三次选举，从而巩固了权力。她为数不多的改革也与民意契合，尤其是在日本福岛核电站事故后加快淘汰本国核电。

Ms Merkel has been doggedly patient in dealing with the biggest recent threat to European security — the re-emergence of Russia. She has talked for hours to President Vladimir Putin in Russian, even as other western leaders shunned him over his annexation of Crimea. She has managed to contain the Ukraine conflict and keep the EU united on economic sanctions against Russia.

在与重新崛起的俄罗斯——欧洲安全近年最大的威胁——打交道时，默克尔既坚定又耐心。她曾用俄语同俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)进行长达几小时的交谈，即便其他西方领导人因普京吞并克里米亚而避开他。默克尔一边成功管控了乌克兰冲突，一边保持了欧盟在对俄经济制裁问题上的团结。

Obsessive approach

执意前行

In the eurozone crisis, she provoked international criticism with her tough approach to Greece and other indebted states, though her party wanted the chancellor to take a harder line. In southern Europe she was condemned as an overbearing debt-collector. But much of northern Europe, and the German public, backed her stance.

在欧元区危机中，默克尔对希腊及其他负债国家的强硬策略引发了国际社会的批评，尽管她所在的政党希望她采取更强硬的立场。在南欧，她被谴责为专横的讨债人。但欧洲北部大部分国家和德国公众支持她的立场。

All the while she took care not to disturb German voters’ well-upholstered lifestyles. Largely avoiding her pre-2005 liberal rhetoric, Ms Merkel developed a way of reassuring the public by saying as little as possible. A new verb was born — merkeln: do nothing, give no opinion.

默克尔一直小心翼翼，不去搅乱德国选民富足的生活方式。她基本避免了2005年以前的那种自由化言论，形成一种依靠尽可能少说话来安抚公众的方法。一个新动词由此诞生——“Merkeln”：什么也不做，也不表态。

Behind the scenes she was tireless and detail-orientated. During the Ukraine conflict, she pored over military maps; with Greece, she dug into the rotten pensions system and went through it line by line with Greek premier Alexis Tsipras.

在幕后，默克尔不知疲倦，关注细节。在乌克兰冲突中，她认真研究军事地图；在希腊危机中，她深入研究希腊烂到根的养老金制度，然后一条一条拿出来和希腊总理亚历克西斯倠溟拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)讨论。

The chancellery hums with her ideas, delivered in conversations or in handwritten margin notes on official papers. This is a top-down administration.

德国总理府为贯彻她的想法而奔忙，这些想法或是来自于谈话，或是来自于官方文件上手写的边注。这是一个自上而下的政府。

She wields power with the coldbloodedness she once applied to Mr Kohl. This year, she sidelined her loyal aide Thomas de Maizière after his apparent failure to respond fast enough to the migration crisis. “She knows how to use the political knife,” says a CDU MP.

她冷酷无情地执掌大权，一如她曾经对科尔的所作所为那样。今年，在她忠实的助手托马斯德迈齐埃(Thomas de Maizière)明显未能及时应对移民危机之后，她将他排挤到一边。“她知道如何运用政治的刀锋，”一名基民盟议员表示。

The chancellor is well informed — her daily media briefing runs to 100 pages — and an unashamed intellectual, delighting in clever company such as Neil MacGregor, the British Museum’s outgoing director. For her 50th birthday party she arranged a neuroscience lecture. But she also enjoys lighter fare, such as Midsomer Murders, a British TV show.

总理的消息很灵通——她每天阅读的媒体简报长达100页，她还是一个自豪的知识分子，乐于和大英博物馆即将卸任的馆长尼尔麦格雷戈(Neil MacGregor)这样的聪明人为友。在她50岁的生日宴会上，她安排了一场神经科学讲座。但她也喜欢更轻松的享受，比如英国电视剧《杀机四伏》(Midsomer Murders)。

She relaxes in a holiday cottage in northeastern Germany. She likes to cook, especially local dishes such as beef rouladen. Summer holidays are spent walking in the Dolomites; in the winter she goes cross-country skiing in St Moritz. Her companion is her husband Joachim Sauer, a fellow scientist who she met in the 1980s. She split from her first husband, Ulrich Merkel, another scientist, whose name she kept.

她会在德国东北部的一间度假小屋放松。她喜欢烹饪，尤其是德国牛肉卷这样的本土菜肴。在夏天的假期里，她会在意大利多洛米蒂山脉(Dolomites)漫步；冬天她会在瑞士圣莫里茨(St Moritz)越野滑雪。她现在的伴侣是她的丈夫约阿希姆绍尔(Joachim Sauer)，是她在上世纪80年代结识的科学家同行。她保留了离异的第一任丈夫乌尔里希默克尔(Ulrich Merkel)的姓。

Ms Merkel rarely speaks publicly about religion, though a cross sits in her chancellery office. She made an exception, however, when she was confronted in September at a student gathering in Bern, the Swiss capital. Asked whether she was concerned that her policies would Islamisise Europe, she urged Christians to stop blaming Muslims and show the strength of their beliefs. “Let us have the courage to say that we are Christian. Let us have the courage to say that we will go into a dialogue” with Muslims.

虽然她的总理办公室放置着一个十字架，但默克尔很少公开谈论宗教。不过，在9月份瑞士首都伯尔尼的一个学生集会上，她破了例。当被问及她是否担忧她的政策会使欧洲伊斯兰化的时候，她敦促基督徒不要再指责穆斯林，而是要展现自己的信仰的力量。“让我们鼓起勇气说，我们是基督徒。让我们鼓起勇气说，我们会（与穆斯林）展开对话。”

The chancellor once criticised multi-culturalism. But today she praises migrants, not only for their economic contribution but also their role in “enriching German cultural life”.

默克尔曾经批评过文化多元化。但今天她赞扬移民，不仅仅是因为移民对经济做出的贡献，还有他们在“丰富德国文化生活”方面发挥的作用。

Knowing that a fifth of Germans are first- or second-generation immigrants, she is pushing the nation to be more inclusive. Thomas Schmid, political editor of Die Welt, says she seeks a “new, different, more colourful, ever less homogenous and fairly rugged republic”.

默克尔知道德国五分之一的人口是第一代或者第二代移民，她正在推动这个国家增强包容性。《世界报》(Die Welt)政治编辑托马斯施密德(Thomas Schmid)表示，她在寻求一个“崭新、不同、更丰富多彩、越来越不同质化和相当粗犷的共和国。”

Ms Merkel was inspired by the sight of German volunteers helping refugees. Some say she saw a chance for Germany to show a gentler face than as the taskmaster of the eurozone crisis, and to pull the country further from its Nazi past.

德国志愿者帮助难民的情景让默克尔受到了启发。一些人说，她看到了一个机会，让德国展现出比欧元区危机“监工”更温和的一面，并且进一步摆脱纳粹历史的阴影。

She is also perhaps capitalising on a growing national confidence, born of the increasing distance from 1945, economic expansion and cultural successes ranging from the hosting of the 2006 football World Cup to “cool” Berlin. “We can do it,” she has said repeatedly in the crisis, echoing Barack Obama’s “Yes we can.”

她或许也在利用日益增强的国民信心，这种信心不仅来自于1945年的逐渐远去，也来自于经济增长，以及从主办2006年世界杯到柏林被认为是一个“酷”城市等文化上的成功。“我们能够做到，”她在危机中一再重复这句话，呼应巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)的话“是的，我们可以”。

But as the threats to the stability of the EU, especially the Schengen free-travel zone, have mounted, another motive has come to the fore: protecting European unity. During the Greek crisis, Ms Merkel repeatedly said: “If the euro fails, Europe fails”. Of the refugee crisis, she says: “It is no exaggeration to see this task as a historic test of Europe.”

但随着欧盟的稳定，尤其是申根自由旅行区，受到越来越严重的威胁，另一个动机显现出来：维护欧洲团结。在希腊危机中，默克尔多次表示：“如果欧元倒了，欧洲就倒了。”对于难民危机，她表示：“将这个任务看成是对欧洲的历史考验并不夸张。”

As a DDR child, she sees herself as a beneficiary of the openness that came with the cold war’s end; she would hate to be the chancellor who watched the EU lurch backwards. “She feels it’s her duty to make the union work,” a German diplomat says. “If it doesn’t work, it is the end of Europe as we know it.”

作为一个在东德长大的孩子，默克尔认为自己受益于冷战结束所带来的开放；作为总理的她不愿坐视欧盟倒退。“她觉得让欧盟继续运转是自己的职责，”一名德国外交官说，“如果欧盟撑不下去，我们所知的欧洲也就走到了尽头。”

Berlin has channelled its growing power through the EU, often in lockstep with Paris. However, with France weakened and Britain looking inwards, the EU may no longer fulfil Germany’s hopes.

近年德国通过欧盟施展其日益增强的实力，往往和法国步调一致。然而，随着法国衰落，英国把眼光投向国内，欧盟或许不再能够实现德国的愿望。

Sharing the burden

分担重责

For Ms Merkel, closing Germany’s borders to refugees was never practical. Border guards could not be seen using force, but then how could they stop migrants? A government official says: “It was a calculation.”

对默克尔而言，对难民关闭德国边境根本不切实际。边境警卫不能使用武力，那他们怎么可能阻止移民？一名政府官员表示：“那（敞开大门）是盘算的结果。”

Ms Merkel has also pursued pragmatic solutions, toughening Germany’s asylum rules and cutting cash benefits. She is seeking a way to redistribute refugees from countries bearing the brunt — including Greece, Italy, Germany, Sweden and Austria — to other member states. And she is crafting a deal with Turkey to staunch flows.

默克尔也推行了务实的解决方案，收紧德国的庇护规则，削减现金补助。她还在寻求一种办法，将难民从希腊、意大利、德国、瑞典和奥地利等承受主要压力的国家分流至欧盟其他成员国。她还试图和土耳其达成一项协议，以遏止难民流。

So far, though, she has failed to stop the tide. The latest German numbers for the year show 965,000 refugee arrivals by the end of November, putting the country on track for more than 1m for 2015, five times more than last year.

然而，迄今为止，默克尔未能止住难民潮。德国今年的最新数据表明，截至11月底，已有96.5万难民进入德国，按照这样的趋势发展下去，到今年年底这个数字将达到100万以上，是去年的5倍多。

Members of her CDU/CSU bloc say she may have only weeks before she has to change tack. Support for the bloc has dipped, while the rightwing Alternative für Deutschland has gained ground to about 8 per cent. Her party is not seeking to replace her, but many want changes, such as on border controls and refugee quotas. Says Mr Schr搀攀爀: “Merkel had heart but no plan.”

基民盟/基社盟的成员表示，距离默克尔不得不改弦易辙的时间或许只有数周了。对这个执政联盟的支持已经下降，而右翼的德国新选项党(Alternative für Deutschland)的支持率已经上升至8%左右。默克尔所在的政党并不想换掉她，但许多人都希望在边境控制和难民配额方面做出改变。施罗德表示：“默克尔有好心，但没有计划。”

In private, the criticism is harsher. A CDU MP says: “Perhaps she’s … tired after 10 years. Perhaps she thinks that if she changes course she will be fundamentally weakened. Perhaps she doesn’t want to admit she was wrong.”

私下里，对她的批评更为严厉。一位基民盟议员表示：“当了10年总理后，或许她已经……累了。或许她认为，如果她改变路线，她会从根本上被削弱。或许她不想承认自己错了。”

Mr Schmid says Ms Merkel’s place in history hangs on the refugee crisis. If she solves it “she will be a great chancellor”. If her efforts fail “she will be recognised for her 10 years as a crisis manager”.

《世界报》的施密德表示，默克尔的历史地位系于难民危机之上。如果默克尔解决了这场危机，“她将是一位伟大的总理”。如果她的努力失败了，“那么她的10年任期将被铭记为一个危机管理者”。

This underestimates her impact. Her response to the refugee crisis has shaken Europe profoundly. Germany will never be the same again. For better or for worse, the cautious Ms Merkel is boldly transforming a continent. Even if she fails, she has left an indelible mark.

这番话低估了默克尔的影响。她对难民危机的回应深刻撼动了欧洲。德国永远不会一样了。无论好坏，谨慎的默克尔正在大胆地改变这片大陆。即使她失败了，她也将留下不可磨灭的印记。