社会顶级精英该如何面对民怨

For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” HL Mencken could have been thinking of today’s politics. The western world undoubtedly confronts complex problems, notably, the dissatisfaction of so many citizens. Equally, aspirants to power, such as Donald Trump in the US and Marine Le Pen in France, offer clear, simple and wrong solutions — notably, nationalism, nativism and protectionism.

“对于每一个复杂的问题，都有一个明确、简单和错误的答案。”H•L•门肯(ken)这句话完全适用于今天的政治。西方世界无疑面临着复杂的问题，尤其是许多公民的不满情绪。同样的，权力的追求者，比如美国的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和法国的马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)，提供了明确、简单和错误的解决方案——尤其是民族主义、本土主义和保护主义。

The remedies they offer are bogus. But the illnesses are real. If governing elites continue to fail to offer convincing cures, they might soon be swept away and, with them, the effort to marry democratic self-government with an open and co-operative world order.

他们提供的疗法是虚假的。但这些疾病是真实的。如果执政精英还无法提供令人信服的疗法，他们可能很快就会被扫地出门，民主自治政府融入开放和合作的世界秩序的努力也会随之付诸东流。

What is the explanation for this backlash? A large part of the answer must be economic. Rising prosperity is a good in itself. But it also creates the possibility of positive-sum politics. This underpins democracy because it is then feasible for everybody to become better off at the same time. Rising prosperity reconciles people to economic and social disruption. Its absence foments rage.

如何解释这种反弹呢？答案的很大一部分必定是经济方面的。经济日益繁荣本身是一件好事，而且它还使正和（positive-sum）政治成为可能。这构成了民主的基础，因为在这种情况下，有可能使所有人的境况同时变好。经济日益繁荣让人们愿意接受经济和社会的扰乱，反之将激起愤怒。

The McKinsey Global Institute sheds powerful light on what has been happening in a report entitled, tellingly, Poorer than their Parents?, which demonstrates how many households have been suffering from stagnant or falling real incomes. On average between 65 and 70 per cent of households in 25 high-income economies experienced this between 2005 and 2014. In the period between 1993 and 2005, however, only

麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)的一份报告强有力地说明了目前正在发生的情况。这份报告有一个很能说明问题的标题《比他们的父母更穷？》(Poorer than their Parents?)，报告展示了有多少家庭的实际收入出现了停滞或者下降。2005年至2014年，25个高收入经济体中平均65%到70%的家庭出现了这样的情况。然而，在1993年到2005年，只有2%的家庭出现了这种情况。这一点也适用于市场收入。由于财政再分配，实际可支配收入停滞或者下降的家庭比例在20%到25%之间。（见图）

2 per cent of households suffered stagnant or declining real incomes. This applies to market income. Because of fiscal redistribution, the proportion suffering from stagnant real disposable incomes was between 20 and 25 per cent. (See charts.)

麦肯锡通过对6000名法国人、英国人和美国人的调查，对个人满意度进行了研究。咨询师们发现，个人满意度更多取决于人们的境况相对于过去和他们境况相似的人而言是否在改善，而非他们的境况相对于今天比他们更富裕的人而言是否在改善。因此，人们更满意于境况的上升，即使他们未能追上更为富裕的同时代人。比起不平等的加剧，收入停滞更让人们感到烦恼。

McKinsey has examined personal satisfaction through a survey of 6,000 French, British and Americans. The consultants found that satisfaction depended more on whether people were advancing relative to others like them in the past than whether they were improving relative to those better off than themselves today. Thus people preferred becoming better off, even if they were not catching up with contemporaries better off still. Stagnant incomes bother people more than rising inequality. The main explanation for the prolonged stagnation in real incomes is the financial crises and subsequent weak recovery. These experiences have destroyed popular confidence in the competence and probity of business, administrative and political elites. But other shifts have also been adverse. Among these are ageing (particularly important in Italy) and declining shares of wages in national income (particularly important in the US, UK and Netherlands).

实际收入长期停滞的主要解释是金融危机和之后的复苏乏力。这些经历摧毁了公众对于商业、行政和政治精英的能力和诚信的信心。然而，其他一些变化也是不利的，比如老龄化（这一点在意大利尤为重要）和国民收入中工资比例下降（这一点在美国、英国和荷兰尤为重要）。

Real income stagnation over a far longer period than any since the second world war is a fundamental political fact. But it cannot be the only driver of discontent. For many of those in the middle of the income distribution, cultural changes also appear threatening. So, too, does immigration — globalisation made flesh. Citizenship of their nations is the most valuable asset owned by most people in wealthy countries. They will resent sharing this with outsiders. Britain’s vote to leave the EU was a warning.

比二战以来任何时候持续时间都要长得多的实际收入停滞是一个基本的政治事实。但这不可能是不满情绪唯一的驱动因素。对很多处于收入分配中段的人来说，文化上的改变看起来也很危险。移民也令他们感到危险——全球化让他们毛骨悚然。对富裕国家的多数人来说，公民身份是他们拥有的最宝贵的资产。和外人分享这种资产会让他们愤怒。英国投票决定退出欧盟(EU)是一个警告。

So what is to be done? If Mr Trump were to become president of the US, it might already be too late. But suppose that this does not happen or, if it does, that the result is not as dire as I fear. What then might be done?

那么，应该做些什么？如果特朗普当上美国总统，也许就太迟了。但假如这种情况不会发生，或者就算发生了，结果也不如我担忧的那样严重。那时我们应该做些什么呢？

First, understand that we depend on one another for our prosperity. It is essential to balance assertions of sovereignty with the requirements of global co-operation. Global governance, while essential, must be oriented towards doing things countries cannot do for themselves. It must focus on providing the essential global public goods. Today this means climate change is a higher priority than further opening of world trade or capital flows.

第一，理解我们的繁荣是相互依赖的。在主权主张和全球合作的必要之间取得平衡至关重要。全球治理尽管极其重要，但必须以做国家无法独立进行的事情为导向。全球治理必须专注于提供必不可少的全球公共产品。今天，这意味着气候变化是比进一步开放世界贸易或者资本流动更优先的事项。

Second, reform capitalism. The role of finance is excessive. The stability of the financial system has improved. But it remains riddled with perverse incentives. The interests of shareholders are given excessive weight over those of other stakeholders in corporations.

第二，改革资本主义。金融的作用过大。金融系统的稳定性有所改善，但依然充满了不合常理的激励措施。比起公司内其他利益相关者的利益，股东利益被赋予了过度的重要性。

Third, focus international co-operation where it will help governments achieve significant domestic objectives. Perhaps the most important is taxation. Wealth owners, who depend on the security created by legitimate democracies, should not escape taxation.

第三，专注于能够帮助政府实现重要的国内目标的国际合作。其中最重要的可能是税收。财富拥有者依赖合法的民主政府所提供的安全，他们不应逃税。

Fourth, accelerate economic growth and improve opportunities. Part of the answer is stronger support for aggregate demand, particularly in the eurozone. But it is also essential to promote investment and innovation. It may be impossible to transform economic prospects. But higher minimum wages and generous tax credits for working people are effective tools for raising incomes at the bottom of the distribution.

第四，加快经济增长，增多机会。这个问题的部分答案在于对总需求提供更有力的支持，尤其是在欧元区。但改善投资和创新也至关重要。改变经济前景也许是不可能的，但为工薪阶层提高最低工资和提供慷慨的税收优惠，是为处于收入分配底层的人提高收入的有效办法。

Fifth, fight the quacks. It is impossible to resist pressure to control flows of un-skilled workers into advanced economies. But this will not transform wages. Equally, protection against imports is costly and will also fail to raise the share of manufacturing in employment significantly. True, that share is far higher in Germany than in the US or UK. But Germany runs a huge trade surplus and has a strong comparative ad-vantage in manufactures. This is not a generalisable state of affairs. (See chart.)

第五，打击“庸医”。人们要求控制没有一技之长的劳动者流入发达经济体，这种压力是不可能抵抗的。但这并不会改变工资。同样的，反对进口的保护主义措施代价高昂，并且无法显著提高制造业在总就业中的比例。的确，德国的这一比例比英美要高得多。但德国有高额的贸易顺差，在制造业有很强的比较优势。这并不是一种能够一般化的情况。（见图）

Above all, recognise the challenge. Prolonged stagnation, cultural upheavals and policy failures are combining to shake the balance between democratic legitimacy and global order. The candidacy of Mr Trump is a result. Those who reject the chauvinist response must come forward with imaginative and ambitious ideas aimed at re-establishing that balance. It is not going to be easy. But failure must not be accepted. Our civilisation itself is at stake.

最重要的是，要认识到挑战。长期停滞、文化颠覆、政策失败正在共同动摇民主合法性和全球秩序之间的平衡。特朗普成为共和党总统候选人就是一个结果。那些反对沙文主义反应的人必须提出有想象力、有抱负、旨在重建这一平衡的想法。这不会是一件容易的事情。但我们不可能接受失败。面临威胁的正是我们的文明本身。