新俄罗斯的概念体 将成普京包袱

Tactical victories often end in strategic defeats. That is what Vladimir Putin is in for. The Russian president’s calculations appeared correct at first: the west swallowed the annexation of Crimea, and the Ukrainians did not resist for fear of all-out war. That put Russia on the path of military-patriotic mobilisation, enabling Mr Putin to claim absolute power without resorting to mass repressions. Yet by turning Russia into a war state, Mr Putin has unleashed the process he cannot stop and made himself hostage to suicidal statecraft.

战术上的胜利往往会以战略上的失败告终。这就是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)将迎来的命运。普京打的算盘起初看起来是正确的：西方无奈接受克里米亚被吞并的事实，乌克兰由于害怕爆发全面战争而不敢反抗。这让俄罗斯走上了军事爱国主义的道路，从而使得普京能够不用依靠大规模肃反运动就能获得绝对权力。然而，通过将俄罗斯转变为一个战争国家，普京启动了一个他自己都无法停止的过程，自杀性的治国方略将让他身不由己。

He cannot now exit the war paradigm without risking a loss of power. For now he makes deals and wears a peacemaker’s hat, but he will inevitably return to the besieged fortress. He can rule only by subjugating the nation in a way that only war can justify. Russians will remember their economic problems soon enough.

普京现在退出战争模式很可能导致自己丧失权力。就目前而言，他缔结协议，摆出调停人的姿态，但他将不可避免地重新陷入四面楚歌的状态。他只有发动战争才能合法地统治国家。俄罗斯人很快就会想起他们的经济问题。

Mr Putin has dismantled the post-cold war settlement that allowed him to engage economically with the west in the interests of the Russian petrostate, while keeping Russian society closed to western influence. His aggression has ensured Russia’s Ukrainian neighbour will forever look west.

普京抛弃了冷战后达成的允许俄罗斯与西方展开经济往来的安排。这种安排符合俄罗斯石油国家的利益，而且还让该国社会不受西方的影响。他的侵略行径让其乌克兰邻居永远地将目光投向西方。

The peace plan Mr Putin announced in September, which was instrumental in securing a ceasefire, is an attempt to formalise the new status quo. The alternative, the Kremlin makes clear, is continued bloodshed. It will not relinquish the occupied territories, and its offer of a deal is backed by dark threats from a country that still possesses one of the world’s biggest nuclear arsenals.

普京在今年9月宣布的和平计划有助于促成停火，这是企图将新现状正式确定下来。克里姆林宫明确表示，不同意该计划就会导致流血冲突持续。俄罗斯将不会交出已经占领的领土，它提出协议的背后暗含着威胁——俄罗斯仍拥有全球最大的核武库之一 。

The west dare not call the Russian incursion an act of aggression. They talk euphemistically of a “political solution” to the Ukrainian crisis, which means that the Kremlin’s interests should be taken into account. The Nato summit held in Wales this month demonstrated that the alliance is not prepared to do much more than condemn Russia.

西方不敢将俄罗斯的入侵称为一种侵略行为。他们委婉地谈论乌克兰危机的“政治解决方案”，这意味着克里姆林宫的利益应该得到考虑。本月在威尔士举行的北约(Nato)峰会表明，北约除了谴责俄罗斯以外不准备做别的。

The promises of lethal aid for Ukraine that have apparently been made by some Nato countries will not shift the military balance – though both sides have an interest in pretending otherwise. Western sanctions will not force Mr Putin to backtrack. The west has proved that it is neither ready to include Ukraine in its security umbrella, nor to live up to their commitments under international law as guarantors of Ukrainian territorial integrity. A New Russia (or “Novorossiya”) on the territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists is on its way to becoming a reality. The partition of Ukraine is silently being ratified by the rest of the world.

部分北约国家据说承诺向乌克兰提供致命性武器援助，但这不会改变乌俄双方的军力对比，不过双方都有意佯称它会改变平衡。西方制裁将不会迫使普京改弦更张。西方已经证明，它既不准备将乌克兰置于其保护伞之下，也不会按照国际法履行保障乌克兰领土完整的承诺。位于由亲俄分裂分子控制的领土上的“新俄罗斯”(Novorossiya)正逐渐成为现实。分割乌克兰正获得世界其他地区的默认。

Does this mean that Mr Putin is winning? Just the reverse: he is again miscalculating. He thinks he can do what other Russian leaders have done before – subdue his subjects by putting Russia in a state of permanent confrontation with the outside world. But the propaganda that plays endlessly on Russian television channels will not mesmerise them for long. Russian society will only accept short and victorious war. It is not prepared for bloodshed.

这意味着普京赢了？答案正好相反：他再次误判形势。他认为自己也可以做到其他俄罗斯领导人以前做过的事情——通过让俄罗斯永久性与外部世界对抗来统治其臣民。但俄罗斯电视台无休止播放的宣传片不会长久地迷惑他们。俄罗斯社会只会接受短暂且能取得胜利的战争。它没有对流血冲突做好准备。

Few are willing to die for Mr Putin’s regime. News that hundreds of Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine and their bodies secretly buried in Russia has already begun to undermining the patriotic mood.

很少有人愿意为普京的政权献身。数百名俄罗斯士兵在乌克兰丧生以及他们被秘密安葬在俄罗斯的消息已开始破坏爱国主义情绪。

Soon, declining living standards will also begin to chafe, and Russians will start asking why they are suddenly so much worse off. Already, 37 per cent of Russians believe that the interests of individuals should trump the interests of the state. Mr Putin is not the new Stalin. He cannot mobilise Russia for a Great Patriotic War.

生活水平不断下降很快也会产生影响，俄罗斯人将开始质问，为何他们的生活境况突然变得这么差。已经有37%的俄罗斯人认为，个人利益应该高于国家利益。普京不是斯大林第二。他不可能动员俄罗斯打一场“伟大的卫国战争”。

The irony is that Novorossiya will soon become a problem for the Russian president. The Kremlin will have to contend with heavily armed separatists, embittered by their failure to secure a stipend from Moscow, just as the tide of protest begins to rise at home.

具有讽刺意味的是，“新俄罗斯”将很快成为普京的一个包袱。在国内兴起抗议浪潮之际,克里姆林宫将不得不应对全副武装的分裂分子，他们因为未能从莫斯科领到薪俸而感到怨恨。

Moscow will have to keep its heroes at arm’s length. Those who are bravely fighting for a “Russian world” could quickly become a threat to Mr Putin if they were allowed into Russia proper. They are welcome in the motherland, but only in coffins.

莫斯科将不得不与他们的英雄保持距离。那些勇敢地为“俄罗斯人的世界”战斗的人如果获准进入俄罗斯本土，可能很快就会对普京造成威胁。他们在祖国受到欢迎，但只是在棺材里。