一味抨击普京于事无补

There is a military saying that armies have to fight the wars they can rather than the ones they wish to fight. It is a maxim that western leaders should consider in their confrontation with Russia.

军事上的一句名言是，军队必须打能打之仗，而不是打想打之仗。西方领导人在与俄罗斯对抗时应该考虑这一箴言。

Roughing up Vladimir Putin at the recent G20 summit in Brisbane may have given them a warm moral glow but did little to advance peace in Ukraine. Gesture politics does not substitute for a coherent strategy needed to address the most alarming threat to European security since the end of the Soviet Union.

在20国集团(G20)布里斯班峰会上批评弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)，可能会让西方领导人闪耀出道德的光辉，但对推进乌克兰和平无济于事。政治上的姿态，代替不了解决自苏联解体以来最令人担忧的欧洲安全威胁所需的连贯性战略。

Western leaders have been right to sanction Russia for unilaterally redrawing international borders. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine have recreated anarchy in Europe. Such aggression could not pass unanswered.

西方领导人因俄罗斯单方面重新划定国际边界而给予制裁是正确的。俄罗斯吞并克里米亚和干预乌克兰东部在欧洲重新制造了混乱。人们不能对此类行为无动于衷。

But although sanctions were a necessary punishment they have proved an ineffective deterrent. They have not changed Russian behaviour. Indeed, they may have only worsened it. Their impact has been to boost the regime’s popularity and strengthen the Kremlin’s hardliners, who relish isolation.

然而，尽管制裁是必要的惩罚，但事实证明这种威慑无效。它们没有改变俄罗斯的行为。实际上，这些制裁反而让俄罗斯变本加厉。它们提高了俄罗斯政权的声望，并增强了克里姆林宫喜欢被孤立的强硬派的势力。

What next? Realism suggests it is time for the west and Ukraine to try to cut a deal with Russia. The imposition of sanctions – and the threat of more – has provided necessary leverage. For the sake of Ukraine’s stability, the west should use that leverage to achieve the diplomatic solution it can rather than the one it may ideally wish for.

接下来怎么做？从现实主义出发，西方和乌克兰现在是时候努力与俄罗斯缔结协议了。施加制裁——以及加大制裁的威胁——提供了必要的影响力。为了乌克兰的稳定，西方应该利用这种影响力来实现它能够、而非主观希望达成的外交解决方案。

The main priority for the west has to be to help a prosperous and secure Ukraine emerge from the turmoil. That is a gargantuan challenge. But it will never succeed with a hostile Russia on its borders (and within its borders) determined to emasculate Ukraine as a political and economic entity.

西方的首要任务必须是帮助乌克兰摆脱动荡局面，成为一个繁荣而安全的国家。这是一个巨大的挑战。但如果在其边境（及其境内）有一个充满敌意、决心削弱乌克兰政治和经济实力的俄罗斯，该任务将永远不会取得成功。

One response would be to force Russia to withdraw. But short of starting a third world war, that is not going to happen. The west is not prepared to deploy troops to defend Ukraine, nor – for the moment – is it even willing to supply heavy weapons to Kiev.

一种应对措施将是迫使俄罗斯退却。但除非发动第三次世界大战，否则不会发生这种情况。西方没有准备部署军队来保卫乌克兰，它们现在甚至也不愿为基辅提供重型武器。

Worse, the west is failing to provide the financial support needed to prevent the Ukrainian economy disappearing into a black hole. The economy is forecast to contract by more than 7 per cent this year and the threat of default looms.

更糟糕的是，西方未能为阻止乌克兰经济消失在黑洞中而提供所需的金融支持。预计乌克兰经济今年将收缩逾7%，同时其违约风险日益迫近。

The Minsk Protocol, the ceasefire agreement signed by Russia and Ukraine in September under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, provides the basis for a comprehensive political deal.

今年9月，在欧洲安全和合作组织(Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe)的主持下，俄罗斯与乌克兰签署了停火协议——《明斯克协议》(Minsk Protocol)，该协议为相关方签署一份全面的政治协议奠定了基础。

On the economy, Kiev should ensure that trade deals with the EU do not entangle its ties with Russia. Before the conflict, Russia accounted for one quarter of Ukraine’s exports. Russia too has a big stake in Ukraine’s economic revival: its banks and exporters are staring at massive losses in one of its most important markets.

就经济而言，基辅方面应该确保与欧盟(EU)签署的贸易协议不会连累乌俄关系。在爆发冲突前，俄罗斯占到乌克兰出口的四分之一。俄罗斯也与乌克兰经济复苏休戚相关：该国银行和出口商在乌克兰面临巨大损失——乌克兰是俄罗斯最重要的市场之一。

The west should also respond to Mr Putin’s desire to discuss Europe’s security architecture. He should be reminded that Nato’s collective self-defence means what it says, especially in the Baltics. But the west should also accept that Nato will not expand into Ukraine. It would be unwise for the security alliance to push for the inclusion of a country that is so divided.

西方还应该对普京讨论欧洲安全架构的愿望做出回应。西方应该提醒普京，北约(Nato)的集体防御原则不是说着玩的，尤其是在波罗的海地区。但西方也应该接受北约不会扩大至乌克兰的要求。北约推动将一个四分五裂的国家包括在内不是什么明智的事情。

Of course, there is no guarantee that Mr Putin would agree – and deliver on – any such deal. His goal may be de facto partition of Ukraine. Moscow has ripped up the Budapest Memorandum it signed in 1994 guaranteeing Ukraine’s independence and so far failed to uphold the Minsk Protocol.

当然，普京并非一定就会同意和履行此类协议。他的目标可能是让乌克兰在事实上分裂。莫斯科撕毁了1994年签署的保证乌克兰独立的《布达佩斯安全保障备忘录》(Budapest memorandum)，而且迄今未能遵守《明斯克协议》。

But as George F Kennan wrote in his famous “X” article in Foreign Affairs in 1947 on how to contain Soviet expansionism, the west’s “demands on Russian policy should be put forward in such a manner as to leave the way open for a compliance not too detrimental to Russian prestige.” Given that Russia’s president insists no Russian forces are present in eastern Ukraine it should be easy enough to magic them away.

但正如乔治•凯南(George Kennan)1947年以“X先生”笔名发表在《外交》杂志(Foreign Affairs)上的那篇著名的文章——关于如何遏制苏联扩张主义——所写的那样，西方“要以不易损害其威望的方式向俄国提出要求”。鉴于俄罗斯总统坚称乌克兰东部没有俄罗斯军队，那么这些军队魔术般地消失应该不是什么难事。

If Moscow were to reject a deal, then it would be time to re-read and implement the rest of Kennan’s prescriptions. Then we will be back to the world of counterforce and containment.

如果莫斯科拒绝签署协议，那么我们将有必要重读并实施凯南开出的余下的处方，届时世界将会重新陷入对抗和遏制。