为何决定与韩国和解的会是安倍

Shinzo Abe has a reputation for being a nationalist and a hawk. Yet in striking a deal with South Korea over wartime “comfort women”, the Japanese prime minister has made the most significant atonement for his country’s past conduct since 1995, when Tomiichi Murayama — the dovish Social Democrat who then held that office — apologised for Japan’s aggression during the second world war.

安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)以民族主义和鹰派立场著称。然而，通过与韩国就战时“慰安妇”问题达成协议，这位日本首相却完成了自1995年以来为日本过去行为所做的最重要赎罪。1995年时，当时的日本首相、鸽派的社会党人村山富市(Tomiichi Murayama)为日本在二战期间的侵略行为进行了道歉。

As part of this week’s agreement, Tokyo apologised for forcing Korean women to serve as sex slaves for imperial troops. It pledged $8.3m for surviving victims; as many in South Korea had demanded, the funds will come from official rather than private sources. Both sides called the agreement “final and irrevocable”, raising hopes that two of Asia’s most important economies can finally overcome a longstanding impediment to constructive relations between them.

作为本周达成的协议的一部分，东京方面为强迫韩国妇女充当日本帝国军队性奴进行了道歉。日本政府承诺出资830万美元援助依然健在的受害者；正如很多韩国人曾经要求的那样，这笔资金将来自官方、而非民间渠道。日韩双方均称这份协议是“最终和不可撤销的”，这让人们不禁期待，亚洲两个最重要经济体终于能够克服长期以来阻止双方建立建设性关系的一道障碍。

Both South Korea and Japan have showed courage, pragmatism and the willingness to risk a domestic backlash. The benefits of this rapprochement should not be underestimated, at a moment when east Asia confronts both opportunity and peril.

韩国和日本均表现出了勇气、务实作风以及冒国内反对的风险达成协议的意愿。在东亚既面临机遇又面临危险之际，人们不应低估日韩修好带来的好处。

One of the more astonishing features of the deal is that it comes on Mr Abe’s watch. Here is a leader who has outraged neighbours with plans to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution. In his rightwing screed, Towards a Beautiful Country, he has brazenly displayed his nationalist stripes. He has also flirted with historical revisionism. In 2007, during a previous stint as prime minister, he went so far as to say that there was no evidence that the “comfort women” had in fact been forced into prostitution.

更令人惊讶的一点是，该协议是在安倍掌权期间达成的。这是一位因企图修订日本和平宪法而激怒邻国的领导人。在其冗长的右翼作品《致美丽的国家》(Towards a Beautiful Country)中，安倍公然向人们展示了他的民族主义色彩。他还与历史修正主义有着暧昧关系。2007年，在上次担任日本首相期间，他甚至表示没有证据表明“慰安妇”事实上是被强迫卖淫的。

Yet it is because of his hawkish credentials that Mr Abe has been able to begin the crucial work of pulling Seoul closer to Tokyo. Rightwingers make up an important chunk of his Liberal Democratic party’s support base. Perhaps, alone among Japanese politicians, the prime minister has the street credibility to quell their anger and persuade them that, in the end, he has their interests at heart.

不过，正是因为拥有身为鹰派的种种“凭证”，安倍才能够启动拉拢韩国的关键工作。右翼是他领导的自民党(LDP)的支持阵营的重要组成部分。这位日本首相拥有的街头号召力，可以平息右翼的怒火并让他们相信他内心深处记得他们的利益，他的这种号召力在日本政界或许是绝无仅有的。

Mr Abe has been able to press the same advantage in other areas, too. He has achieved the remarkable feat of bringing Japan into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major trade pact involving 12 Pacific Rim nations, taming his own camp’s vested interests along the way. The deal is good for Japan’s economic prospects, but potentially painful for the coddled farming sector, a pillar of LDP support. Using a combination of clout and sweeteners, Mr Abe has hacked through resistance to change in a way that the Democratic party — which was last in power between 2009 and 2012 — has never managed.

安倍还能将这种优势运用在其他领域。他实现了令人瞩目的成就，让日本加入了涉及12个环太平洋国家的重要贸易协定《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement，简称TPP），并在这个过程中驯服了他所在阵营内的既得利益。该协定有利于日本的经济前景，但可能会不利于受到呵护的农业部门，后者是自民党的重要拥趸。通过恩威并施，安倍突破了阻力，实现了变革，而这是民主党（上一次执政是在2009年至2012年）一直未能做到的。

Mr Abe is no closet liberal. Left to his own devices, he might very well be tempted to careen into the rigid nationalism where his instincts lie. Yet instead he has surrounded himself with clear-sighted realists, notably chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga, whose official role as government spokesman belies his outsize influence. And Mr Abe himself should be given much credit for the positive economic and diplomatic steps Japan has taken. Faced with the choice between the romantic nationalism close to his heart, and the recognition that only bold economic and diplomatic measures can restore his country to prosperity, Mr Abe appears to have listened to his head and chosen the latter.

安倍并不是一个秘密的自由派。如果他由着自己的心意，他很可能会忍不住倒向顽固的民族主义，因为那才是他内心深处所推崇的。尽管如此，他却挑选了一些精明的现实主义者作为自己的副手，特别是内阁官房长官菅义伟(Yoshihide Suga)——虽然他的官方身份只是政府发言人，但他的影响力其实要大得多。就日本已经采取的积极的经济和外交举措而言，很大一部分功劳应记在安倍本人头上。他内心推崇的是浪漫的民族主义，但他同时也认识到只有大胆的经济和外交举措才能使日本恢复繁荣。在要在这二者当中作选择时，安倍似乎理智地选择了后者。

Next he should turn his attention to Beijing, and see whether a similar approach can generate a virtuous circle of trust and co-operation to replace the acrimony of the past seven decades.

接下来他应把注意力转向北京方面，看看类似的做法是否可以在日中两国间建立起信任与合作的良性循环，来取代过去70年两国间的恶语相向。

There have been hopeful moments before. In 1972, Kakuei Tanaka, the Japanese premier, and Zhou Enlai, his Chinese counterpart, enjoyed a meeting of minds and especially of personalities, which led to the normalisation of diplomatic ties between the two Asian giants. Watching the grainy footage of their handshake, one senses something more at stake than the realpolitik of Asian rivalry. These are two old codgers moved by friendship and mutual achievement. They are beyond faking it.

以前曾有过充满希望的时刻。1972年，当时的日本首相田中角荣(Kakuei Tanaka)和中国总理周恩来愉快地举行了一次会晤，展现出了双方的思想，尤其是人格魅力。这促成了两个亚洲巨人之间外交关系的正常化。观看田中与周恩来握手的模糊影像画面，人们可以感受到某种比亚洲竞争的现实政治更重要的东西。这是两位被友谊和相互成全打动的老人。他们的姿态不是装出来的。

There was a glimmer of that in the handshake in Seoul between South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye and Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida to mark this week’s agreement. I have watched it over and over; it does not look choreographed, but entirely sincere.

在首尔，当韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)与日本外相岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida)为庆祝本周达成的协议而握手时，人们也能隐约感受到类似的东西。我看了一遍又一遍；这一幕看起来不像是精心设计的，而是完全发自内心。

Here are two politicians, coming from vastly different historical perspectives, who are genuinely pleased at the prospect of a new beginning. They want something to happen.

历史观截然不同的两位政治人士，为一个新开端的前景而由衷地高兴。他们希望能够促成某种东西。

Yet there is a touch of shrewdness, too, in this week’s deal. It comes just as Japan goes into a mode of collective hibernation known as the shogatsu, or new year, holidays. Even the most hardened nationalist may be too busy drinking sake and munching on rice cakes to make much of a fuss about Japan extending a historic hand of friendship to Korea.

不过，在本周的协议中也能体会到一丝精心的设计。协议达成时，正值日本人进入“集体冬眠”模式，即新年假期。即便是最强硬的民族主义者或许也在忙着喝清酒、吃年糕，没时间就日本向韩国伸出历史性的友谊之手大做文章。