TPP之死将重击美国领导力
It is time to pronounce the Trans-Pacific Partnership clinically dead. Hillary Clinton had already put President Barack Obama’s signature deal — the biggest US Trade initiative in more than a decade — on life support when she came out against it last year. Donald Trump has vowed to scrap it, which meant that whoever took the White House would have pledged its demise.
是时候宣布《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议》(TPP)临床死亡的消息了。去年希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)站出来反对TPP之后，总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的这份招牌协议——美国十多年来提出的最大型的贸易倡议——就不得不靠机器维持生命了。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)更是誓言要废掉TPP。这意味着，无论这两个人谁入主白宫，他们都等于承诺了要终止TPP。
Yet the suspicion lingered that Mrs Clinton was simply following her husband’s bait-and-switch tactics. Former president Bill Clinton ran strongly against the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1992 only to do whatever it took to ensure Nafta passed after he took office.
不过，仍有人在怀疑，希拉里只是在仿效她丈夫的“偷梁换柱”伎俩。前总统比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)在1992年时强烈反对《北美自由贸易协定》(Nafta)，结果上台后却竭尽所能确保Nafta通过。
On Tuesday, Terry McAuliffe, the governor of Virginia and longtime friend of the Clintons, hinted that the Democratic nominee had exactly the same U-turn in mind for the 12-nation TPP. He was forced to disavow his words almost instantly. John Podesta, chairman of the Clinton campaign, tweeted that Mrs Clinton would be opposed to TPP before and after the election: “Period. Full Stop.”
周二，克林顿夫妇的老朋友、弗吉尼亚州州长特里•麦考利夫(Terry McAuliffe)暗示，对于12个成员国缔结的TPP，希拉里这位民主党候选人的想法也有同样的180度大转弯。他几乎立刻就被迫否认自己的话。克林顿竞选班子负责人约翰•波德斯塔(John Podesta)在推特上发言称，无论选前还是选后，希拉里都会反对TPP。他还写下了两个“句号”(Period. Full Stop.)以示确定以及肯定。
It will not be the last time Mrs Clinton will be cajoled to reassure voters that she really means what she says. When she was secretary of state she described the TPP as the “gold standard” of trade deals — she was for it before she was against it.
这不会是希拉里最后一次被劝说向选民保证她说话算数。她担任国务卿时曾形容TPP是“黄金标准”的贸易协议——她先是支持TPP，后来又反对TPP。
Mr Trump, the Republican nominee, will lose no opportunity to hammer her on that implicit contradiction. So too will Bernie Sanders’ supporters, whose anti-TPP signs bedecked the Philadelphia convention hall on Monday. To them, and other doubters of Mrs Clinton, her actions on TPP will be the chief barometer of her integrity. Whatever wiggle room she still has will thus continue to shrink.
共和党候选人特朗普肯定要抓住机会利用这种明显的前后矛盾来敲打希拉里。伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的支持者们也会这么做。周一，他们在费城的民主党全国代表大会会场上张贴了很多反对TPP的标语。对于他们以及其他怀疑希拉里的人而言，她在TPP方面的举动将成为检验其个人诚信的主要标准。无论她还剩有多少回旋余地，这种余地都会继续缩小。
But Mr Podesta left one key gap in his assurance that she would oppose TPP both as candidate and president — the lame duck Congress that will take place in the interregnum between November and January. This will be Mr Obama’s last chance to ratify TPP.
但波德斯塔关于希拉里无论作为候选人还是总统都会反对TPP的保证留有一个关键破绽：从今年11月到明年1月这段政权交替期，国会将变成一只坡脚鸭。那将是奥巴马推动TPP获得批准的最后机会。
His prospects were already looking shaky. Last year Congress passed the fast-track negotiating authority by just 10 votes. Most counts suggest that narrow margin has now vanished. Middle America’s antitrade backlash has only intensified.
他的胜算看起来不大。去年，国会仅以赞成票多10票的结果通过了快车道谈判授权。当前大多数投票显示，这点儿微弱的优势也已丧失。美国中产阶层反贸易的抵制情绪愈发强烈了。
How then could TPP rise from the dead? The only realistic scenario is that Mr Obama could somehow bludgeon the lame duck Congress to rush it on to the statute books after a landslide victory by Mrs Clinton.
那么，TPP如何能起死回生呢？唯一有现实可能的情形是，在希拉里取得压倒性大选胜利之后，奥巴马设法胁迫坡脚鸭国会赶紧把TPP写入法典。
It is virtually inconceivable Mrs Clinton could reprise her husband’s Nafta pivot on TPP after taking office. Attempting that would drain her political capital in the first few months and toxify whatever chances she had of building a reputation as a trustworthy leader.
无法想象希拉里上台后会像其丈夫对待Nafta那样转向支持TPP。如果她尝试那么做，上任没几个月她的政治资本就会丧失殆尽，并毁掉打造可信赖领导人形象的所有机会。
Mr Sanders’ backers have already made it clear that the Democrats are ripe for a Tea Party-style takeover. A U-turn by Mrs Clinton would invite that fate by confirming every prejudice about Clintonite slipperiness. It would also kill her chances of enacting immigration reform, which she says will be her first priority in her first 100 days.
桑德斯的支持者已明确指出，民主党人即将面临一场茶党式的接管。如果希拉里的态度来个180度大转弯，就将坐实一切关于希拉里滑头的偏见，从而招致这种命运。这也将扼杀她启动移民改革的机会。她说了，移民改革将是她上任头100天内的第一要务。
In other words, the TPP in its current form is dead — and it will be hard to bring it back to life in any other guise. The hit to America’s global leadership will be huge.
换言之，当前形式的TPP已经死了，也很难改头换面复活过来。这将对美国的全球领导力造成巨大打击。
Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton originally sold the deal as the economic plank of Washington’s “pivot to Asia”. It would set in stone the rules of engagement that China would have no choice but to follow.
奥巴马和希拉里当初是把TPP作为美国“重返亚洲”战略的经济支柱来兜售的。它将把打交道的规则变成白纸黑字，到那时中国除了遵守以外别无选择。
Nature abhors a vacuum. If TPP dies at America’s hands, it will be the end of an era. Allies in Asia will look increasingly to China for economic leadership. Europe’s equivalent deal, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, will die with it.
自然界里是没有真空的。如果TPP死于美国之手，那么一个时代将随之终结。美国的亚洲盟友将日益指望中国在经济领域挑起领导角色。欧洲的同类贸易协议——《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》(TTIP)将随之消亡。
The era of US-led globalism will begin to unravel. It may well be a price worth paying — Mr Trump’s victory would sound the death knell for US globalism. But it is a high price nonetheless.
美国主导的“全球主义”(globalism)的时代将开始落幕。这可能是值得付出的代价——特朗普获胜不啻于预告美国的全球主义将死。但这终究是高昂的代价。
