特朗普迎来选举决战 最后一搏
It is fitting that a man who lost so much money in the casino business will meet his final showdown in Las Vegas.
对一个在赌场生意上亏掉很多钱的人来说，在拉斯维加斯迎来最后的决战是恰当的。
At this point — Donald Trump’s third and final televised debate with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday — the odds are stacked against him.
就目前而言——唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将于本周三（北京时间周四）与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)进行第三轮、也是最后一轮的电视辩论——形势对特朗普不利。
Having squandered his near parity with Mrs Clinton in September, Mr Trump has launched a breathtaking electoral blitzkrieg.
特朗普没有把握住今年9月与希拉里几乎势均力敌的机会，但他已经发起了惊人的选举闪电战。
Is it the last gamble of an undisciplined narcissist? Or does scorched-earth Mr Trump pose a threat to US democracy?
这是一位不守规矩的自恋狂的最后一搏？抑或是采取焦土策略的特朗普对美国民主构成了威胁？
Anyone concerned about America’s future role in the world should be relieved Mr Trump is the challenger.
任何关心美国未来在世界的角色的人都应该感到欣慰的是，特朗普是挑战者。
Imagine the state of the race were he capable of staying on message.
如果他能够做到有的放矢，想象现在选情会是什么样子吧。
Instead of denigrating the women who have made allegations of sexual misconduct against him, Mr Trump would be focusing on his case for Americanism versus Mrs Clinton’s globalism.
特朗普会着重阐述支持美国主义的理由，来对决希拉里的全球主义，而不是贬低那些对他提出性骚扰指控的女性。
He might have a serious chance of winning.
那么他胜算可能很大。
Those who think Mr Trump owes his likely defeat to his brand of nationalist populism should beware of drawing hasty conclusions.
那些认为特朗普因民族民粹主义标签而可能败选的人别急着下结论。
The chief obstacle to Mr Trump’s victory is his character.
特朗普取胜的主要障碍是他的性格，
He just cannot help himself.
他只是克制不住自己。
His advisers have pleaded with him to stay focused on the main themes.
他的顾问们请求他紧紧围绕主要议题。
The Trump campaign’s strategy is to suppress turnout for Mrs Clinton by depicting her as a creature of internationalist corporate elites.
特朗普团队的策略是将希拉里刻画为国际主义企业精英的傀儡，从而拉低她的支持率。
The campaign’s other plank is to boost Mr Trump’s turnout by making the case that only a renegade outsider can fix a corrupt Washington.
特朗普团队的其他策略是通过阐明只有叛逆的局外人才能解决华盛顿的腐败问题，从而提升特朗普的支持率。
It is a straightforward argument.
这种观点简单直接。
But Mr Trump is unable to stick to it for more than a few minutes.
但特朗普对这种观点连几分钟也坚持不了。
Invariably he gets drawn into horrifying tirades against his female accusers.
他总是令人震惊地长篇累牍地攻击指控他性骚扰的女性。
Believe me, she would not have been my first choice, he said of one alleged victim.
他在谈及一位据称遭受他侵害的女性说道：相信我，她不会是我的第一选择。
As a result, he has lost the support of his party.
结果是，他失去了共和党党内的支持。
For the first time, the Republican National Committee is spending zero dollars on television advertising for the party’s White House nominee, according to Politico.
据Politico表示，美国共和党全国委员会(Republican National Committee)首次没有为该党总统候选人的电视广告出一分钱。
Instead, the party’s resources are going to congressional races.
共和党把资源投向了国会选举。
Likewise, its leaders have broken precedent by dissociating from their presidential candidate.
同样，该党领导人史无前例地与他们的总统候选人保持距离。
Most Republicans acquiesced with Mr Trump America first message.
大多数共和党人暗中同意特朗普传达的美国优先论。
They also shared his revilement of Mrs Clinton — as most still do.
他们也认同特朗普对希拉里的抨击——大多数人仍在继续抨击。
They even tolerated the wall with Mexico.
他们甚至容忍特朗普提出的在美墨边境修建隔离墙的主张。
What caused Republicans to un-endorse Mr Trump in the past week was the way in which he talks about women.
在过去一周让共和党人不再为特朗普背书的是他谈论女性的方式。
Yet his official message is also veering into fantastic self-parody.
然而，特朗普传达出的正式信息也在转向奇特的自我调侃。
There is a powerful case to be made that Mrs Clinton stands for business as usual.
我们完全有理由说，希拉里像往常一样代表企业利益。
Most Americans do not like the direction in which their country is headed.
大多数美国人不喜欢美国的走向。
Most distrust Mrs Clinton.
大多数人不信任希拉里。
Even now, after all that has happened, Mr Trump still attracts the support of about 40 per cent of likely voters.
即便在发生这么多事情之后，特朗普仍吸引了大约40%的潜在选民的支持。
Mrs Clinton’s lead is between five and nine percentage points.
希拉里领先5到9个百分点。
A cardboard cut-out might have given her a run for her money.
一个硬纸板剪成的希拉里图片表明她难以轻松获胜，
Mr Trump is hell-bent on playing a real live monster.
而特朗普铁了心要扮演一个真正的怪物。
His latest conspiracy theory could have been lifted from the Protocols of the Elders of Zion — an early 20th century forgery that stirred up anti-Semitic hatred.
他最近提出的阴谋论可能模仿《锡安长老会纪要》(The Protocols of the Elders of Zion)——那是20世纪初的伪造之作，它激发了对犹太人的仇恨。
It is one thing to say that Mrs Clinton is cosy with the elites who have rigged the game in their favour.
说希拉里与操纵大选的精英们关系密切是一回事。
There is plenty of truth to that.
这在很大程度上是真的。
It is preposterous to claim she plots secretly with global bankers to rob America of its sovereignty.
但宣称希拉里与全球银行家密谋剥夺美国的主权地位就很荒唐了。
In Mr Trump’s paranoid imaginings, the Clintons’ co-conspirators include the Republican establishment, corporate America, neoconservatives and Pope Francis.
在特朗普的偏执型妄想中，希拉里的合谋对象包括共和党建制派、美国企业、新保守主义者以及教皇方济各(Pope Francis)。
It must be a huge meeting room.
会议室必须非常大才能容纳下这么多人。
What will the next three weeks look like? Mr Trump’s only sliver of hope lies in an improbable string of accidents that would derail Mrs Clinton’s campaign.
接下来3周的情况如何？特朗普的唯一一线希望在于发生一系列让希拉里的竞选脱轨的事件，这基本上不太可能。
This might include a serious health scare.
这些事件可能包括希拉里出现严重的健康问题。
If she were to collapse again in public, as she did with pneumonia last month, it would revive doubts about her stamina.
如果希拉里再次当众摔倒——就像她上月因肺炎而摔倒一样——人们就会对她的精力产生怀疑。
Mr Trump has laid the ground for this.
特朗普已经为此做了铺垫。
On Saturday he said they should both take drugs tests before the final debate.
上周末，特朗普说，他们在最后一场辩论之前应该进行毒品测试。
Likewise, if there were a Paris or Nice-scale Islamist terrorist attack in the US, it might panic swing voters into the arms of the strongman.
同样，如果美国发生巴黎或尼斯那种规模的伊斯兰恐怖袭击活动，选民们就会惊慌失措地转向支持强人政治。
Or if WikiLeaks revealed a bang-to-rights case of the Clintons taking money for political favours, it would boost Mr Trump’s global conspiracy.
或者如果维基解密(WikiLeaks)证据确凿地曝出希拉里接受政治献金的新闻，就会支持特朗普的全球阴谋论。
Even these may not be enough.
发生这些事件可能还不够。
The one thing that is theoretically within Mr Trump’s control is that which is least likely to happen — running a stable campaign that conveys his fitness to govern.
就理论而言，特朗普能够控制的一件事情是，按部就班地竞选，传递只有他才适合治理这个国家的信息——但这也是最不可能发生的。
There is a higher chance of Mrs Clinton hosting The Apprentice.
相比之下，希拉里主持《飞黄腾达》(The Apprentice，又译《学徒》)的可能性还更大一些。
Yet little comfort should be drawn from his likely demise.
然而，特朗普的可能出局应该不会带来多少慰藉。
At some point a more self-possessed version of Mr Trump might pick up the baton.
在某个时候，一个更有自制力的特朗普可能会捡起指挥棒。
In the meantime, he is unleashing demons.
与此同时，特朗普正在放出魔鬼。
Their big victim is the Republican party.
共和党深受其害。
Mr Trump has exposed a weak establishment that no longer leads its rank and file, but is terrified of following it.
特朗普让人们看到一个疲弱的建制派，他们不再引领基层党员，而是害怕贴近基层。
The Republican Humpty Dumpty is in pieces.
笨拙臃肿的共和党成了一盘散沙。
He has also opened up cracks in US democracy.
特朗普也让美国民主产生裂痕。
By predicting a rigged election, Mr Trump has sown doubts about the whole system.
特朗普预测选举受到操纵，从而让人们对整个体系产生怀疑。
It is a habit Mr Trump perfected with his casinos.
特朗普在他的赌场上完善了这一习惯。
He racks up huge losses.
他遭受巨亏。
Everyone else is stuck with the bill.
其他所有人都不得不支付账单。
