下任美国总统应转向欧洲

When the cold war ended 25 years ago, Europe emerged as prosperous, democratic, united and peaceful.

25年前冷战结束后，欧洲呈现出一片繁荣、民主、团结、和平的景象。

Today, however, it faces interlocking crises that threaten to undermine the continent’s economy and weaken the EU.

但如今，它面临一系列环环相扣的危机，这些危机有可能破坏欧洲经济、削弱欧盟(EU)。

This has significant implications for the US and for its next president.

欧洲的形势对美国及其下任总统有重大影响。

Europe remains America’s largest trade partner and investor, and 25 European nations are members of Nato, its most important military alliance.

欧洲仍是美国最大的贸易伙伴和投资来源地，欧洲有25个国家是美国最重要的军事同盟——北约(Nato)的成员。

As a global power, the US must interact with every major region of the world.

作为一个全球强国，美国必须与世界所有主要地区互动。

But for all the undeniable importance of the so-called pivot to Asia, the next US president may have to focus first on Europe.

但是，尽管所谓的转向亚洲(pivot to Asia)战略具有不可否认的重要性，但下任美国总统或许不得不首先聚焦于欧洲。

Americans in both parties worry about a weaker, more divided EU.

美国民主、共和两党人士都担心一个虚弱、分裂的欧盟。

When Britain leaves, the bloc will lose its second-largest economy and its strongest military.

英国退出将使欧盟失去第二大经济体和最强大的军队。

Combined with a recurring Greek debt crisis and declining public support for ever-closer union, the European project appears adrift.

再加上反复发作的希腊债务危机以及公众对日益紧密的联盟支持率下滑，欧洲一体化计划似乎一筹莫展。

Americans are also watching warily the most serious far-right populist revolt in Europe since the 1930s.

美国人也警惕地注视着欧洲出现的自上世纪30年代以来最严重的极右翼民粹主义反抗运动。

While the US is experiencing its own ugly nativist campaign, led by Donald Trump, the reactionary Viktor Orban is already in power in Hungary and the Law and Justice government in Poland has created problems for both Brussels and Washington.

在美国国内经历唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)领头的丑陋的本土主义运动之际，逆历史潮流而动的欧尔班.维克托(Viktor Orban)已在匈牙利掌权，波兰的法律与公正党(Law and Justice party)政府给布鲁塞尔和华盛顿都制造了麻烦。

Will similar movements in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany deepen the assault on the EU’s liberal democratic foundations?

法国、比利时、荷兰、奥地利和德国出现的类似运动会深化对欧盟的自由民主基石的攻击吗？

The US also recognises that the vast number of Syrian, Iraqi, Afghan and North African refugees has overwhelmed Europe’s ability to assimilate them.

美国也认识到，来自叙利亚、伊拉克、阿富汗以及北非的大量难民超出了欧洲的收容能力。

German chancellor Angela Merkel and other European leaders would be right to ask the new US leader to accept a substantially greater number of refugees than President Barack Obama.

德国总理安格拉.默克尔(Angela Merkel)和其他欧洲领导人有理由促请美国新领导人收容比巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)主政时期更多的难民。

Finally, a previously united Europe is being divided by the aggression of President Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Georgia and eastern Ukraine and annexation of Crimea pose an existential threat to the survival of free countries along Russia’s southern and western borders.

最后，昔日团结的欧洲正遭到俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)的侵略行径的分化，俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚和乌克兰东部、吞并克里米亚的行为，对与俄罗斯南部和西部边界接壤的自由国家构成了生死存亡的威胁。

The Russian challenge will become particularly acute next month, when the US will be in the middle of the presidential transition.

俄罗斯带来的挑战将在12月美国总统交接期间变得尤为严重。

That is when European nations must decide whether to extend the sanctions imposed on Moscow after the assault on Ukraine.

届时，欧洲国家必须决定是否延长乌克兰遭入侵后对莫斯科实施的制裁。

Anything less than a full and unequivocal extension of the sanctions regime would weaken the American president-elect just as the relationship with Moscow reaches its lowest ebb since the 1980s.

在美俄关系处于自上世纪80年代以来的最低谷之际，如果欧洲各国不能全面、果断地延长对俄罗斯的制裁机制，那将削弱美国当选总统的地位。

Hillary Clinton has supported the impressive efforts of Mr Obama’s team to rebuild US military strength in Europe.

希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)支持奥巴马团队重建美国在欧洲军事力量的令人印象深刻的努力。

Moving Nato battalions into Poland and the Baltic states to protect them from Russian aggression will be an urgent priority in 2017.

让北约部队进驻波兰和波罗的海国家以保护它们免遭俄罗斯侵犯，将是2017年的当务之急。

This would not be sabre-rattling, as claimed by Frank Walter-Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, but a warning to Mr Putin that the west will protect the democracies of eastern Europe at all costs.

这不是德国外长弗兰克-瓦尔特.施泰因迈尔(Frank-Walter Steinmeier)所称的炫耀武力，而是为了警告普京：西方将不惜一切代价保护东欧的民主国家。

A new US administration should also consider providing defensive weapons to Ukraine and should ask the EU to deepen its economic commitment to the government of President Petro Poroshenko.

美国新政府还应考虑向乌克兰提供防御性武器，并促请欧盟深化对彼得罗.波罗申科(Petro Poroshenko)总统的政府的经济承诺。

Such strengthening of the west’s position is the surest path to contain Mr Putin.

如此强化西方的立场是遏制普京的最靠谱方式。

At the same time, the US and Europe will need to keep open the lines to Moscow to seek Russian co-operation on crises that concern us all: Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea and Syria.

同时，美欧需要保持与莫斯科的沟通，以便在大家共同关注的危机问题上——伊朗、阿富汗、朝鲜和叙利亚——争取俄罗斯的合作。

There is much more the new president will need to do to shore up the transatlantic alliance.

美国新总统还需做出更多努力来巩固跨大西洋联盟。

The US must re¬affirm its close intelligence and military ties with Britain while also deepening its strategic connection to Europe’s power centre in Germany.

美国必须再次确认其与英国之间紧密的情报和军事纽带，同时深化其与欧洲实力中心德国的战略关系。

What many Europeans say they need most, however, is a return to stronger American leadership to support them in a time of crisis.

然而，许多欧洲人称，他们最需要的是美国再次展现出更强大的领导能力，在危机时刻支持他们。

The next president will need to stand resolutely with the US’s European partners, not least against the challenge from Mr Putin.

下任美国总统将需要坚定地站在其欧洲伙伴一边，尤其是在应对普京带来的挑战的时候。

Mrs Clinton would be such a president.

希拉里将成为这样的总统。

Her strong ties to the continent as well as her sturdy convictions and deep international experience could lead a revival of America’s transatlantic link with Europe.

她与欧洲的密切关系、她坚定的信念以及深厚的外交经验有望帮助重振美欧间的跨大西洋关系。

Mr Trump, on the other hand, has demonstrated beyond doubt that he is unprepared to exercise these responsibilities.

另一方面，特朗普已经在超越合理怀疑的程度上表明，他对承担这些责任丝毫没有准备。

He has consistently devalued Nato and, with his public praise for Mr Putin, has undermined the embattled Ukrainian government.

他不停地贬低北约的作用，还对普京公开称赞，令处境艰难的乌克兰政府雪上加霜。

This is why so many European leaders hope fervently for a Clinton victory next week.

这就是为什么如此多的欧洲领导人热切希望希拉里赢得大选。

She is the candidate who understands what all US presidents since Harry Truman have known — that America’s global fortunes depend in large part on the vital link with Europe, especially at times of crisis.

作为总统候选人，她明白美国的全球运势在很大程度上有赖于与欧洲的关键纽带，尤其是在危机时期——这是自哈里.杜鲁门(Harry Truman)以来历任美国总统都认识到的。