特朗普国会演说揭示了什么

To say Donald Trump’s pivot to optimism came across as a character transplant would be an understatement.

说唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)变得乐观就像是性格移植，是一种轻描淡写。

It was as though Barack Obama took to yelling expletives at passers-by or Bill Clinton fixed his gaze on his shoes. Or perhaps a close-shaven Abraham Lincoln suddenly sprung up on the podium. With the brief exception of his acceptance speech on 9 November, this was America’s first glimpse of an upbeat President Trump. He wore it surprisingly well.

这就好像是巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)开始大声咒骂路人，或是比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)改掉了他喜欢低头盯着鞋的习惯，又或者是刮掉胡子的亚伯拉罕?林肯(Abraham Lincoln)突然出现在演讲台上。除了11月9日的胜选演讲，特朗普在国会发表的首次演讲是美国第一次看到积极乐观的特朗普总统。他表现得惊人地好。

His first address to Congress lasted an hour. It was by far the most presidential speech Mr Trump has yet given. The question is whether he can stick to it for hours, days or even weeks.

他的这次演讲持续了1个小时。这绝对是迄今为止特朗普作出的最有总统样子的演讲。问题是他能否坚持数小时、数天、甚至数周。

Given Mr Trump’s record, the odds must be with the sceptics. Leaving that aside for a moment, it is worth stressing three things.

考虑到特朗普的过往，肯定是怀疑派的胜算比较大。暂且抛开这一点，有三件事值得强调。

First, Mr Trump’s opening forty days may have gone better had he adopted Tuesday night’s tone at his inaugural address on 20 January. That notorious moment has already gone down as the “American carnage” speech after Mr Trump’s dystopian vision of the country he was inheriting — and his xenophobic tone towards the world.

首先，如果特朗普在1月20日就职演讲中采用了上周二晚上的语气，他新官上任的头40天里本可能更顺利。在特朗普对他接手的国家给出了反乌托邦的愿景、并对全世界摆出排外态度后，那一臭名昭著的时刻已经作为“美国大屠杀”式演讲而载入史册。

On Tuesday, Mr Trump executed a big change in tone possibly after a family intervention. It is no coincidence that his Twitter account went quiet for the preceding 24 hours — Mr Trump’s longest period of social media silence since taking office. If good ratings are what Mr Trump most craves — and his compulsive viewing habits would suggest that they are — it is just possible the good feedback from Tuesday night will create its own positive cycle.

上周二，特朗普的语气大为转变，这可能是源于家庭干预。绝非巧合的是，他的Twitter账户在之前的24小时保持沉寂——这是自他上任以来在社交媒体上最长时间的沉默。如果特朗普最渴望的是好评——他强迫式的审视习惯意味着确实如此——来自上周二晚上的良好反馈可能会创造良性循环。

Second, tone really does matter. In terms of substance, Mr Trump’s speech was little different from what he said on 20 January.

第二，语气确实很重要。在内容方面，特朗普这次演讲与他在1月20日的演讲几乎没有差别。

The content was just as “America first” on Tuesday as it was then — with the big exception of Mr Trump’s positive words about Nato, which were glaringly absent from his inaugural address.

上周二，特朗普演讲的内容就是之前所说的“美国优先”(America first)——主要区别是特朗普对北约(Nato)的积极评价，这是其就职演讲明显缺失的。

The influence of Gen Jim Mattis, who is shaping up to be a key figure in the Trump administration, was reflected in the general’s beaming visage.

吉姆?马蒂斯将军(General Jim Mattis)正逐渐成为特朗普政府的关键人物，他的影响力反映在容光焕发的脸上。

Other than that significant “shout out” to America’s alliance partners, Mr Trump laid out roughly what was expected. He promised big tax cuts, federal deregulation, a major infrastructure plan, a wall on the US-Mexico border and the deportation of “bad people”. He even announced the creation of an Orwellian-sounding federal unit to look after the victims of crime carried out by illegal immigrants — the Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement (Voice). That was vintage Trump. His decision to privilege such victims largely drowned out his call for the US to adopt a Canada-style merit-based immigration system. The latter may well prove to have been a significant announcement.

除了向美国盟友们作出这一重要“喊话”外，特朗普的讲话基本符合预期。他承诺大幅减税、放宽联邦监管、实施大规模基础设施计划、在美墨边境建起高墙并且驱逐“坏人”。他甚至宣布打造一个听起来像奥威尔式(Orwellian)的联邦机构，来照顾非法移民所犯罪行的受害者——移民犯罪受害者办公室（Victims Of Immigration Crime Engagement Office，简称Voice）。这是典型的特朗普。他给予这些受害者特殊待遇的决定，基本上淹没了他呼吁美国采用加拿大式的积分制移民制度的声音。后者本来很可能会成为一项重要政策。

The final aspect was the degree to which Mr Trump’s speech showed how readily the Republican party is now eating out of his hand.

最后一点，特朗普的演讲展现了如今共和党对特朗普多么服服帖帖。

Forty days may be biblical shorthand for a long time. But it is astonishing how rapidly Mr Trump has turned a pro-free trade party into an extension of his America First movement.

40天或许是很长时间的缩影。但令人惊讶的是，特朗普如此快速地把一个支持自由贸易的党派转变成了他“美国优先”行动的延伸。

It was striking to watch Paul Ryan, the Republican speaker, and supposed fiscal conservative, applaud a speech that did not once mention the US budget deficit while unveiling measures that ensured it would swell.

看到众议院议长、所谓的财政保守派共和党人保罗?瑞安(Paul Ryan)，为一次都未提及美国预算赤字、而又宣布了注定会让赤字膨胀的措施的演讲而鼓掌，令人震惊。

No matter how low Mr Trump’s approval ratings fall — at 44 per cent, they are already at a historic low for a president this early into his term — he retains the ability to threaten the job security of any Republican who opposes him.

无论特朗普的支持率会降到多低——目前为44%，已经是历届美国总统上任初期支持率的最低水平了——他都保留着威胁炒掉任何一个反对他的共和党人的能力。

At almost 90 per cent his approval ratings among registered Republicans is relatively high. This reflects just how bitterly polarised the US has become. Mr Trump may not be loved by his own party on Capitol Hill. But he is feared.

他在登记的共和党人之间的支持率相对很高，几乎达到了90%。这反映出美国如今两极分化是多么严重。国会山(Capitol Hill)的共和党人或许不爱特朗普，但他们都怕他。

Democrats clearly loathe him — even when he is doing his best impression of Ronald Reagan. They sat in stony silence throughout even when he called for bipartisan action to solve America’s problems.

民主党明显讨厌特朗普——即使他如今正竭尽全力地模仿罗纳德?里根(Ronald Reagan)。他们全程沉默地坐着，即使是在特朗普呼吁两党共同采取行动解决美国问题的时候也是如此。

In a night of unexpected lines, Mr Trump’s most memorable was when he said: “The time for trivial fights is over.”

在频频说出令人意外之言的那晚，特朗普最令人印象深刻的是当他说：“进行琐碎争斗的时候已经结束。”

It was a moment of high chutzpah given Mr Trump’s penchant for picking Twitter battles with celebrities, the media, and stray pundits on TV. He could just possibly have meant it. That was Tuesday night. Will Wednesday morning Trump retain the sunny optimism? We shall find out soon enough.

考虑到特朗普热衷于在Twitter上挑起与名人、媒体和电视节目中专家的战争，这一刻他真是厚颜无耻。他也可能是认真的。那是上周二的晚上。之后特朗普还会保持这种阳光乐观吗？我们很快就会得到答案。